PennyForYourThoughts Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 WDPN33 PGTW 072100MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN) WARNING NR19//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.SUPER TYPHOON 31W (HAIYAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) REVEALS A NEARLY ANNULAR EYEWALL HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 170 KNOTS BASED ON THE 8.0/8.0 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I understand the concern but let's not bury them quite so soon..... He should be fine from surge unless it tops 50 ft. +1 the boys on the hunt. Wishing them a safe journey and historical video This I am looking forward to an awesome recap from Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can't recall ever seeing 170 KTS in an advisory. I never thought I'd consider 170kts a conservative estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 it would have been amazing to get a recon mission in there.Josh and your team, Good luck fellas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 +1 This I am looking forward to an awesome recap from Josh Sunrise in less than an hour and a half from now should time well. Going to get some great daytime video of this monster, assuming holding a camera will be possible. Good luck to Josh and the other chasers. Although we may judge them for wanting to get in the eyewall of this storm, no matter how ridiculous this may seem, these guys have an unrivaled passion for cyclone chasing. This is their calling, and I'm grateful they are willing to go where no one else will to share amazing images from these systems. Good luck lads! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 1 hour until sunrise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wstaude Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm following along the WestPac Weather guys on this Youtube stream - sorry if it's been linked already. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SrEVLCbAfys&feature=share Edit: They are trying to get James (Josh too?) on - but haven't been able to yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sunrise in less than an hour and a half from now should time well. Going to get some great daytime video of this monster, assuming holding a camera will be possible. I imagine Josh will be in an interior hallway bunkering down. You'll probably get to hear the sounds and see the winds flying/leaking into the hallway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Guiuan @ 96 mph and 976 pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's got to be absolutely surreal there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 James tweeted their location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow... Look at that monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Real quick chat with Josh to let him know that it was about to make landfall at Guiuan and headed his way. They are still surprised that things haven't picked up yet but told him it shouldn't be long. Probably will lose communication in the next hour or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Real quick chat with Josh to let him know that it was about to make landfall at Guiuan and headed his way. They are still surprised that things haven't picked up yet but told him it shouldn't be long. Probably will lose communication in the next hour or so.... They just lost power, hotel has a generator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's amazing to think, with 196 mph sustained winds this storm is as much above a minimum cat 5, if there is such a thing, as a strong cat 2 is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 James tweeted their location Who is James and what is his Twitter handle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Who is James and what is his Twitter handle? James Reynolds. https://twitter.com/typhoonfury Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'd guess they are about two hours from the eye. Given that there was no recon and only estimates on intensity/pressure at this point I can't wait to see what Josh measures. Has two calibrated kestrels. Just guesstimating I think he gets low 900's to upper 890's if they get directly in the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Latest I have. Looks like there's a good chance that they get the eye right on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Easterly winds along the northern eyewall will have to cross 40-50 km of land with numerous hills to 300 m, and occasional peaks to 800 m. Tacloban city will take a beating, but the east coast of Samar will bare the worst of it. Perhaps Josh and crew can take some comfort in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gonna be close as to whether Tacloban gets the eyewall with this. I suspect there will be some slight weakening until it hits due to land interaction, but its so close though and the storm is so strong its almost moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's amazing to think, with 196 mph sustained winds this storm is as much above a minimum cat 5, if there is such a thing, as a strong cat 2 is below. If Al Gore had his way this is a Cat 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Unfortunately, it looks like it skirts just under them. But they sure will get the max winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Gonna be close as to whether Tacloban gets the eyewall with this. I suspect there will be some slight weakening until it hits due to land interaction, but its so close though and the storm is so strong its almost moot. Eyewall is basically a guarantee at this point. Whether or not they hit the clear of the eye itself is still in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm seriously worried for Josh with respect to storm surge. I'm relatively confident he will be safe with the wind (it should be a bit lower where he is compared to directly on the coast and the building should be sturdy enough)... but the surge. Look at the geography of where that town is...at the tip of a funnel-shaped bay. The surge could, quite honestly, break world records there. For comparison, 5 meters is 16 feet, or about the same height as one of these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Eyewall is basically a guarantee at this point. Whether or not they hit the clear of the eye itself is still in question. Yeah if they manage to get into the clear eye that alone will make for epic shots (stadium effect). Northern eyewall only would obviously mean a longer period of absolutely devastating winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Western hotels in areas like this are generally reinforced concrete and are some of the most well built structures in the country. They are indeed built to western plus standards Thank WW2 and American support of the Philippines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Man, one of the strongest storms on record and it hits during the day time. The post storm video could be some of the most incredible you have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It has to be closing in fast on them now (if not overhead) as this image was taken over 30 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 By the looks of the latest radar loop it does look like they'll catch at least a piece of the eye. With that said, any little wobble could change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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