patrick05 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/NOAH%20SS.pdf i was looking at it first thinking "oh 5 feet, not too bad" and then i saw the (m) sign and i was like holy s***!!!! Tacloban is very susceptible and the airport is very exposed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 54th WRS was shut down in the 1980s, if I recall the Hong Kong observatory wasn't pleased. I have often thought since the C-130J Super Hercules that the WC-130J is based on is a common transport in many countries air forces, an ASEAN or hemispheric (perhaps including Australia) combined task force, possibly including US participation because of Guam and Kadena, and including nations that could afford it, like Japan and South Korea, should station recon planes, possibly based at one of several air bases to cover from Australia to Japan and Korea. BTW. I have seen a picture of the hotel Josh will be based out of, looks pretty sturdy, but not terribly far from the water, and I'm not sure many buildings would survive wind gusts over 200 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Thinking they made a very smart call avoiding Eastern Samar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Quick chat with Josh - Conditions beginning to deteriorate though nothing that suggests a sub 900 150+ kt cyclone barreling towards them. They have options around them if their building is compromised and need to move. Going to try and nap but I doubt he gets any with the adrenalin pumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
somethingfunny Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Somebody might want to let Josh know just how piddly and lame Dean looks in this series: Hurricane Dean @ 907mb: Here's Megi @ 890mb: Here's Haiyan currently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/fcst/NOAH%20SS.pdfThanks. Wow 5 meters? Good lord. Hope the numbers don't increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 josh is dead center in the updated track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can't believe they are gunna try this one. This is storm is carrying winds of almost 200 mph. F5 range almost. And it looks like it is still strengthening which is incredible. God be with them. They will probably need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 josh is dead center in the updated track. Yikes!! Literally right over top of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can't believe they are gunna try this one. This is storm is carrying winds of almost 200 mph. F5 range almost. And it looks like it is still strengthening which is incredible. God be with them. They will probably need it. My first thought, too....although it's too late to get out now. Tacloban's airport is going to get crushed by surge if it stays on this track. They may not be able to get out for a while and I doubt basic necessities will be easy to come by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Southern tip of Samar Island is going to get absolutely raked in a few hours. hopefully that will knock it down a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Guiuan, per Wunderground, the closest station I could find to Yolanda, is 27 mph from the Northeast and 998 mb, so if there was a good road network and place to flee towards, they could still abort. Never been anywhere but Luzon, but I suspect there isn't a good road network and safe place to flee to, so they should hunker down. On their FB someone suggested duct-taping or otherwise securing flashlights to their bodies, wearing helmets, etc. Which is probably a reasonable precaution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 All you can really hope at this point is that the eyewall is somewhat disrupted by land before it actually gets to Tacloban. I don't even really see anywhere else I would want to go to in the area that would have buildings that I would want to be in. I would say that hotel does not meet the standards I'd be looking for based on damage I've seen first hand (I had family in Homestead for Andrew, their home and the entire neighborhood of million dollar homes was completely flattened.) So, I hope you guys have scoped out a hospital or some other reinforced concrete structure that you can quickly get to if you realize the hotel is not going to work. Everyone in the path will be in my thoughts today. I can't imagine this will be anything other than a catastrophic hit for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Anyone with a link to the FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 My god...be safe guys. Also does anyone have a link to there Facebook page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/iCyclone Thanks map girl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FB page is first entry in the topic thread. When will the Gen Public know if these guys are safe? That is one M'fckr mean looking SOB that maybe should have been passed on. Man I would love to be there right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Normally I would be jealous of them but not with this one. I just hope that their names do not become synonymous with Tim Samaras and crew, this is truly the El Reno of TCs. They are in serious danger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Normally I would be jealous of them but not with this one. I just hope that their names do not become synonymous with Tim Samaras and crew, this is truly the El Reno of TCs. They are in serious danger. I agree. This storm is as strong as they come and so far I don't see any signs of real degeneration as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm seriously worried for Josh with respect to storm surge. I'm relatively confident he will be safe with the wind (it should be a bit lower where he is compared to directly on the coast and the building should be sturdy enough)... but the surge. Look at the geography of where that town is...at the tip of a funnel-shaped bay. The surge could, quite honestly, break world records there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sat estimated pressure 858mb. The world record for measured was Tip in '79, 870. Words fail. The surge will be truly frightening and not diminish much if at all even if the winds lessen a bit a la Katrina. I hope that hotel they are in is still standing afterwards. EDIT: According to Jeff Masters despite the funnel shape of the Gulf there storm surges in this area are not as extreme as might be thought at first glance probably due to the shape of the underwater slope- and if the storm goes a tad north of them then the surge will not be as bad also. For their sake I hope this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Any chance they can go south like now? This looks terrible, which could be an understatement. That city is gonna get wiped clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 858....wow this is unreal this close to landfall. Not sure we're going to see such a big wind drop off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I understand the concern but let's not bury them quite so soon..... He should be fine from surge unless it tops 50 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Any chance they can go south like now? This looks terrible, which could be an understatement. That city is gonna get wiped clean. I'm not sure how much that will help. The city is more likely to have sturdier buildings. It would be a trade off between surge/wind issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Those guys might have bitten of more than they can chew but what a whale of a tale they will have when it's over...provided they make it of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can not imagine any structure withstanding those winds and that level of surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 An EF5 tornado sustained rotating around the eye.... where do you take shelter in this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I can not imagine any structure withstanding those winds and that level of surge. Reinforced concrete structures can be surprisingly sturdy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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