Isotherm Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Another colder than progged morning.44.4F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I'm ready to write off a cooler than normal October. Ensembles are in fairly good consensus on the mid level ridge reforming across the West Atlantic D 5-10. I think the second half of October might be normal to below, but won't cancel out the positives of the first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 ewr's average high is below 70 now... looks like that won't happen for the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 The persistent WAR pattern from around 4-15 through July is making a return after taking a two month break. The last few months the ridge was located over the Central and Eastern Atlantic. A.gif B.gif test8.gif Too little too late, where was it when we needed it. I feel it is useless this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I'm ready to write off a cooler than normal October. Ensembles are in fairly good consensus on the mid level ridge reforming across the West Atlantic D 5-10. I think the second half of October might be normal to below, but won't cancel out the positives of the first half. Hey it was quite unusual to have 2 months below current averages, I can't remember the last time there were 3! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 The upcoming pattern would be great for supporting a US tropical threat if one came to fruition. The east coast could also be vulnerable in this setup. The 00z GGEM develops a strong TC and brings it due west next week underneath the ridge axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 its going to be an incredible week ahead, the best of the year, possibly the best in peoples lives It would be great if it were say August to say early September, but having nearly a week of 80s or near 80 temperatures to start October is disgusting and it will strongly set back the foliage. We're probably going to see a few days of +10 or higher departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 It would be great if it were say August to say early September, but having nearly a week of 80s or near 80 temperatures to start October is disgusting and it will strongly set back the foliage. We're probably going to see a few days of +10 or higher departures. I wish the foliage never came. Why does it matter that it will be delayed? They will stall fall, it can not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 The nights will still be in the 50s as it's a low dew point warm-up, so the "heat" will probably not feel all that hot, nevermind the sun angle being on par with early/mid March now. It's well above average no doubt, but the warmth feels different post late September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I wish the foliage never came. Why does it matter that it will be delayed? They will stall fall, it can not be denied. It could end up like October 2007 where we torch to the extreme and the leaves stay green until November, though the somewhat cooler than normal September brought about a quick start to the foliage so it may not be as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Todays highs are likely to overperform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 It could end up like October 2007 where we torch to the extreme and the leaves stay green until November, though the somewhat cooler than normal September brought about a quick start to the foliage so it may not be as bad. Unless we get another October snow storm it won't matter much when they fall as long as they fall eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Todays highs are likely to overperform Forecast is low to mid 70s..you think we're going higher than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Todays highs are likely to overperform Nope 67 here at 1:15pm, if anything we'll be a bit below..upton had 71 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Todays highs are likely to overperform Not so sure about that. It's partly to mostly cloudy now, which may inhibit temperatures from overperforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 70F here with an east wind. The next couple days have a better chance of over performing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Will (ORH_wxman) has some pretty good stuff about warm Octobers and the resulting winter temperature composites that followed in the New England winter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Will (ORH_wxman) has some pretty good stuff about warm Octobers and the resulting winter temperature composites that followed in the New England winter thread. the correlation increases with latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 the correlation increases with latitude. We want something of a Nino to fire up and provide some semblance of a subtropical jet. Otherwise we are prone to see storms blow up too late or try to cut for the lakes, which is the hallmark of most Nina years. Great for New England and the upper Midwest but poor to okay for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I'm really excited about the upcoming warmth for October. REALLY excited. I can remember many a warm October with a cold and snowy winter following. Let's hope for 30 inch blizzards! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 the first six days of October 2012 averaged well above normal...78 max in NYC...The last 70+ day was 10/15...That's early for the last 70 degree day...Big cool down from 7-13th...The second half of Oct. 2012 was milder than average but no torching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I'm really excited about the upcoming warmth for October. REALLY excited. I can remember many a warm October with a cold and snowy winter following. Let's hope for 30 inch blizzards! In the stats Uncle W posted in the New England Forum, there is a slightly larger number of Octobers that were warm that had snowy winters, but it's not an overwhelming majority. I don't think we say how this winter will go quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 It could end up like October 2007 where we torch to the extreme and the leaves stay green until November, though the somewhat cooler than normal September brought about a quick start to the foliage so it may not be as bad. I always thought that was kind of normal here, I can't recall a time where I haven't seen at least some green in November, but then again I don't pay much attention lol. I know the leaves were green during Sandy and the snowstorm that followed, whatever was left of the leaves/trees that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I always thought that was kind of normal here, I can't recall a time where I haven't seen at least some green in November, but then again I don't pay much attention lol. I know the leaves were green during Sandy and the snowstorm that followed, whatever was left of the leaves/trees that is. I usually use halloween as a reference date for leaf change... around here on average the trees are 50/50 on halloween (half down and half still on trees) Last year for sandy about 50 % were down prior. Many have mentioned how tree damage could have been worse if sandy hit a little earlier when tree foliage was greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 In the city you'll see more green in the beginning of November, but for most of us, leaves that remain post Halloween have changed color. In my area, usually peak occurs the last week of October with very rapid leaf drop in the first 5 days of November. There were essentially no leaves on the trees after Sandy last year (October 31st-Nov 1st). Latest peak in recent years was 2007, peaking around November 8th. Earliest peak (recently) was around October 20th or so in 2009. 2006 was also a peak in the 3rd week IIRC due to a chilly October. But the average for most of us centers around a Oct 25-31 peak with big leaf drop thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 At least around here the change usually occurs around Mid-October and begin to fall around Halloween. By Thanksgiving we're usually all bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Speaking of foliage, shots from today here in Monmouth County: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 warmth or not, we are going to have an earlier peak this year. I think your peak weekend will be October 19 for leaf sightseeing meanwhile back at the ranch lets see if we get graze 80 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 JFK will approach the record high tomorrow with enough of an offshore flow. 10/2.... 82 in 2002... 82 in 1995... 79 in 1948 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 warmth or not, we are going to have an earlier peak this year. I think your peak weekend will be October 19 for leaf sightseeing meanwhile back at the ranch lets see if we get graze 80 today. ...wonder what this dry stretch will have on the foliage..cut the lawn yesterday(not much to cut..very brown) and it turned into a dust bowl..drought monitor has us in "abnormally dry"..need some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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