IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 If the 12z GFS is correct we could be dealing with some enhanced rainfall threat early next week. The GFS has an area of low pressure coming up through the gulf and then riding along the stalled out front on Tuesday. We really need the rain here. Starting to borderline on drought conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 If the 12z GFS is correct we could be dealing with some enhanced rainfall threat early next week. The GFS has an area of low pressure coming up through the gulf and then riding along the stalled out front on Tuesday. We really need the rain here. Starting to borderline on drought conditions. Hopefully, some of the moisture from 97l that the Euro and GFS are showing makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Hopefully, some of the moisture from 97l that the Euro and GFS are showing makes it here. at201397_sat.jpg That's exactly what the GFS shows developing. Makes it down to 998mb this run in the gulf at its peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 That's exactly what the GFS shows developing. Makes it down to 998mb this run in the gulf at its peak intensity. The Euro has the remnant moisture over the Midwest and Apps in about a week. If the WAR is too strong, the best chance of heavy rain will set up over the interior zones again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 The Euro has the remnant moisture over the Midwest and Apps in about a week. If the WAR is too strong, the best chance of heavy rain will set up over the interior zones again. North32America_msl_168.gif these south to north moving systems tend to deposit the best rains west of us. getting a front to slip south of us would help but i don't think that's likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 77 and summery imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 It's def warm out. Torch is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 If the 12z GFS is correct we could be dealing with some enhanced rainfall threat early next week. The GFS has an area of low pressure coming up through the gulf and then riding along the stalled out front on Tuesday. We really need the rain here. Starting to borderline on drought conditions. These almost always are threats for NJ and west, possibly even the Poconos and west. We had TS Andrea in June but those are generally the exception. The areas suffering the most from lack of rain are the immediate coastal areas which would likely get little more than some showers from a tropical-based system tracking over or west of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 the weekend front keeps getting delayed on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 the weekend front keeps getting delayed on the models Euro torches us next week also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 More 80s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Euro torches us next week also It may stay warm until mid month., which is ok with me October cold is wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 80.3F today for my first 80F+ reading since September 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Dog days of october...lol....just desserts...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 80.3F today for my first 80F+ reading since September 12th. 81 here first since sep 21st. iso we may need to reopen the pool. Im still waiting for the deluge to end the dry period - we know its coming.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 highs so far roday NYC; 82 EWR: 82 New Brnswick: 83 LGA; 80 JFK: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 81 here first since sep 21st. iso we may need to reopen the pool. Im still waiting for the deluge to end the dry period - we know its coming.... Believe it or not, I held out on closing here hoping early October would flip warm, so maybe some surprise swimming in the coming days. Early summer season blew chunks so maybe pick up the slack now. The next two weeks could potentially be 75+ per the Euro. Looks torchy through 10th/12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 The WAR really gets pumped up next week, but the high will be too far north and we will get a cooler onshore flow here. So my guess is that tomorrow will be the warmest day of October for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 The WAR really gets pumped up next week, but the high will be too far north and we will get a cooler onshore flow here. So my guess is that tomorrow will be the warmest day of October for us. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_168.gif MSLP_North32America_168.gif lows stay in the 60s region wide. that's at least +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 81 here first since sep 21st. iso we may need to reopen the pool. Im still waiting for the deluge to end the dry period - we know its coming.... lmao I agree, tomorrow might be hotter than most days we had in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 lows stay in the 60s region wide. that's at least +10 Yeah, still above normal but not as warm as the upcoming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 lmao I agree, tomorrow might be hotter than most days we had in August. Let's not forget it was in the mid 90s in September so it's not like it's been since July since we've seen any type of heat. As long as snowfall expands rapidly throughout Siberia I can deal with this late season heat surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 I'm glad I didn't take the ac down...the 22 years that had top five daily highs in the first week of October had average snowfall but with extremes...1931 and 1997 had less than 6" for the season while 1922 and 1995 had over 60" each...so anything can happen...and will... 1879...22.7"...mild 1881...31.4"...cold 1891...25.4"...cold 1919...47.6"...cold 1922...60.4"...cold 1931.....5.3"...mild 1927...14.5"...mild 1941...11.3"...mild 1943...23.8"...cold 1944...27.1"...cold 1946...30.6"...norm 1950...11.6"...mild 1951...19.7"...mild 1954...11.5"...norm 1959...39.2"...mild 1961...18.1"...cold 1963...44.7"...cold 1967...19.5"...cold 1968...30.2"...cold 1995...75.6"...cold 1997.....5.5"...mild 2007...11.9"...mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I'm glad I didn't take the ac down...the 22 years that had top five daily highs in the first week of October had average snowfall but with extremes...1931 and 1997 had less than 6" for the season while 1922 and 1995 had over 60" each...so anything can happen...and will... 1879...22.7"...mild 1881...31.4"...cold 1891...25.4"...cold 1919...47.6"...cold 1922...60.4"...cold 1931.....5.3"...mild 1927...14.5"...mild 1941...11.3"...mild 1943...23.8"...cold 1944...27.1"...cold 1946...30.6"...norm 1950...11.6"...mild 1951...19.7"...mild 1954...11.5"...norm 1959...39.2"...mild 1961...18.1"...cold 1963...44.7"...cold 1967...19.5"...cold 1968...30.2"...cold 1995...75.6"...cold 1997.....5.5"...mild 2007...11.9"...mild It seems like our October temperatures don't have much off a relationship to what happens in the winter. At least since 2002, the location of where the October 500 mb anomalies set up gave us better clues as to how the winter would turn out. 2007 and 1947 were tied for warmest October, but had opposite winters. But sometimes very cold Octobers like 1917 and 1976 carry over into those historically cold winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 2007 was a cold winter? It seemed we got little snow and cold. Euro last night says keep the shorts out. Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 2007 was a cold winter? It seemed we got little snow and cold. Euro last night says keep the shorts out. Torch! We all agree it would stay mild for the next 10 days or so, but mid to upper 70's in early October is not much of a torch, I would say mid- to upper 80's is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Omg its an everlasting summer I remember one summery fall that never ended...was it 99 or 2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Anything that gives departures of plus 10 is double digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 This warm weather was due since summer was pretty much over in late july except for a few days here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I wonder if this months average will be warmer than September, certainly the first half will and could be on par with some of the warmest Octobers in history. I hope someone does a list of departures for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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