jm1220 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I disagree, the Western side of this sytem is modeled to be dry. The heaviest rainfall should be from just west of the center east. Makes sense to me given how the models have been showing no precip west of the center at landfall. When tropical based systems reach our latitude, they often develop fronts and develop much heavier rain west of the track due to the tropical air associated with it overrunning continental/cool air west of it. Models showing steady rain along or east of tropical remnant tracks are very often wrong when they are at our latitude. I would count on very little meaningful rain along or east of the track. Also, the NHC is showing it as only a 50/50 chance at developing at all, and if development occurs shear would likely hamper it. Just as likely as not this could be almost nothing even for the Gulf coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That's because all of the rain with Sandy was displaced to the south of the center. The precip was completely lopsided. Why you would even bring that up as a comparison is just plain stupid. Why do you think the rain with Sandy was displaced south and west of the center? The frigid for that time of year airmass colliding with it in that region of the storm caused much more rain in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 84 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 83.5 might be the high here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Some new obs for the Bronx crew. Just saw this pop up at the 3pm. CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 83 58 42 VRB3 29.94FBRONX BO. GARD N/A 82 59 44 NW7 29.81FLAGUARDIA APRT SUNNY 83 57 41 NW13G23 29.91FKENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 84 57 39 W18 29.92FNEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 85 58 39 NW13 29.92STETERBORO MOSUNNY 86 59 39 W9 29.90FWHITE PLAINS MOSUNNY 80 60 50 NW12 29.92F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Some new obs for the Bronx crew. Just saw this pop up at the 3pm. CENTRAL PARK SUNNY 83 58 42 VRB3 29.94F BRONX BO. GARD N/A 82 59 44 NW7 29.81F LAGUARDIA APRT SUNNY 83 57 41 NW13G23 29.91F KENNEDY INTL MOSUNNY 84 57 39 W18 29.92F NEWARK/LIBERTY MOSUNNY 85 58 39 NW13 29.92S TETERBORO MOSUNNY 86 59 39 W9 29.90F WHITE PLAINS MOSUNNY 80 60 50 NW12 29.92F Lol so much for the government shutdown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That takes out the 95 and 02 record at JFK. Looks like we'll beat both those winters snowfall wise then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 83F high after 54F low today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 83.7 high my PWS, 84 at ISP. I love this weather. Wish it was like this year-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Looks like we'll beat both those winters snowfall wise then. Bring it on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 83.7 high my PWS, 84 at ISP. I love this weather. Wish it was like this year-round. Tell me about it, today was great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 12z euro continues the torch through mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 12z euro continues the torch through mid-month Latest gfs shows a different look, probably cools down a lot faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Latest gfs shows a different look, probably cools down a lot faster. Looks like the GFS' depiction of a stronger 97L makes the pattern in the East noticeably different than with the Euro. Tropical Systems like this often cause the models to struggle with the future depiction of the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Looks like the GFS' depiction of a stronger 97L makes the pattern in the East noticeably different than with the Euro. Tropical Systems like this often cause the models to struggle with the future depiction of the pattern. If it verifies, then a cooler solution will easily verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 If it verifies, then a cooler solution will easily verify. The trends with 97L should be watched to see which solution is more likely. The 18z GFS brings some pretty impressive rain potential with 97L. BTW Nice profile picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The trends with 97L should be watched to see which solution is more likely. The 18z GFS brings some pretty impressive rain potential with 97L. BTW Nice profile picture Thanks. Your profile picture brings memories. Also, considering how organized 97L is, the 18Z GFS could be a likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Thanks. Your profile picture brings memories. Also, considering how organized 97L is, the 18Z GFS could be a likely solution. The 18z GFS Surface Forecasted Wind Gusts would not be good for the coast to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 18z GFS Surface Forecasted Wind Gusts would not be good for the coast to say the least. gfs wind gusts.gif Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 00z GFS came in even stronger with future Karen. Only difference is that this run the moisture is closer to the coast than previous runs when it gets up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 00z GFS came in even stronger with future Karen. Only difference is that this run the moisture is closer to the coast than previous runs when it gets up this way. Hmmm....Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Models will keep shifting back and forth with the track so theres no need to hug the model runs, but I think we could definitely see some tropical moisture streaming north from this. It's probably the most interesting thing I've seen in weeks, if not months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Hmmm....Interesting. It also came in much drier this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Models will keep shifting back and forth with the track so theres no need to hug the model runs, but I think we could definitely see some tropical moisture streaming north from this. It's probably the most interesting thing I've seen in weeks, if not months.The difference in track between the Euro and GFS is leading to some major differences in their forecast for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 It also came in much drier this run Even more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 71 at 4am in October....not to bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 00z GFS came in even stronger with future Karen. Only difference is that this run the moisture is closer to the coast than previous runs when it gets up this way. CONVECTIVE LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWED SOME SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES UP TOWARDS/ASHORE THE GULF COAST, BUT NOTHING EXTREME FOR THREE DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS REASONABLE CLUSTERING. A NON-GFS COMPROMISE LIES WITHIN THE OVERALL 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD AND IS PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. SEE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS CYCLONE'S LATEST STATUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The Euro shears out the system to our south, but the remnant moisture streams north along the front next week. Even .50 would be welcome with the dry conditions around Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 06Z douses the city and LI pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 06Z douses the city and LI pretty good. Well, since YanksFan has been hugging the GFS so tight this week, it had no choice but to cry out more precip in response to the pain. (Morning Joke) Seriously though, we really need some rain up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.