Isotherm Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 2007 was a cold winter? It seemed we got little snow and cold. Euro last night says keep the shorts out. Torch! 2007-08 was +1.7 or so DJF in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 2007 was a cold winter? It seemed we got little snow and cold. Euro last night says keep the shorts out. Torch! He meant that while 2007 and 1947 both had warm October's, 2007 had an opposite winter from 1947. 1947 was cold and 2007 was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 He meant that while 2007 and 1947 both had warm October's, 2007 had an opposite winter from 1947. 1947 was cold and 2007 was warm. Right. The winter of 47-48 came in with 63.2 inches of snow vs 11.9 in 2007-2008. Both Octobers were 63.6 at NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 2007-08 was snowy north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 2007-08 was snowy north of nyc Textbook La Nina winter. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/26-27Feb2008/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Euro is an absolute torch. I'd rather have this now than a month or two from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 76 now at JFK with the record for today of 82 set in 2002 and 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I just have a feeling that this great weather pattern of +10 departures and dry conditions is going to reverse itself in a big way. The last several years have been charachterized by extremes of heat, cold, dry and wet. My prediction of a strong coastal storm around the time that NAO peaked at negative didn't come to fruition. Perhaps because the rise of the NAO has been more gradual than forecast and still remains slightly negative. The forecast is for the NAO to take a dip again mid month so we might be looking at the third week in October as a target time for something big to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 This is some of the nicest weather I can remember in my entire lifetime. Just a neverending string of beautiful days. It's bookended on the front end by that heavy rainstorm we had some weeks ago, where my power went out for the first time since Sandy. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 12z GFS coming in with a glorious solution to spice up this stretch of boring weather. High end TS low end CAT 1 (future Karen) into the Florida panhandle at 96hrs. Then gets sucked NE along the frontal boundry. Combination produces an abundent amount of rain beginning very early Monday morning and persisting through at least Tuesday night. About a 36-48 hour event as the remnants of Karen track directly over NJ. 48 rainfall totals are 2.5"+ from I-95 West. The 1.5"+ line makes it to Queens. All interested parties in this region are at least 1.00"+. One would think areas would be able to see locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 I just have a feeling that this great weather pattern of +10 departures and dry conditions is going to reverse itself in a big way. The last several years have been charachterized by extremes of heat, cold, dry and wet. My prediction of a strong coastal storm around the time that NAO peaked at negative didn't come to fruition. Perhaps because the rise of the NAO has been more gradual than forecast and still remains slightly negative. The forecast is for the NAO to take a dip again mid month so we might be looking at the third week in October as a target time for something big to happen. The NAO block was transient and in the wrong place. -NAO doesn't always mean a coastal storm when it lifts out. Only west based ones really help us. The point of it is to slow down the flow over the eastern US to force a deep trough and a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Lol...1-2 inches...meh..I had that much each thunderstorm I had this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 12z GFS coming in with a glorious solution to spice up this stretch of boring weather. High end TS low end CAT 1 (future Karen) into the Florida panhandle at 96hrs. Then gets sucked NE along the frontal boundry. Combination produces an abundent amount of rain beginning very early Monday morning and persisting through at least Tuesday night. About a 36-48 hour event as the remnants of Karen track directly over NJ. 48 rainfall totals are 2.5"+ from I-95 West. The 1.5"+ line makes it to Queens. All interested parties in this region are at least 1.00"+. One would think areas would be able to see locally higher amounts. It would likely just be showers over the city and east/south unless the remnant low tracks offshore. A low tracking over NJ will have a huge dry slot along and east of it. Also the NHC mentions shear becoming a problem which could keep it from much future development in the longer run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Any rain would be beneficial at this point, it's getting awfully dry out there. Although according to the drought monitor, NJ doesn't have any abnormally dry conditions, most is further east over LI and the city but it's nothing too crazy either. Getting 1-2" will alleviate any major concerns with regards to drought. At this point, I guess it's best to embrace the torch. I'd rather have it now than later and according to analogs on the New England forum, it's not necessarily a bad thing for us to torch in October. We certainly learned that having snow in October is never a good thing and cold in October is pretty much useless for snow anyway. I hope the foliage isn't too damaged by all this warmth though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Lol...1-2 inches...meh..I had that much each thunderstorm I had this year 2.5"+ out in western NJ with locally higher amounts is the most rain from one system that we've seen since June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 It would likely just be showers over the city and east/south unless the remnant low tracks offshore. A low tracking over NJ will have a huge dry slot along and east of it. Also the NHC mentions shear becoming a problem which could keep it from much future development in the longer run. Notice how I said that the bulk of the rain is from NYC WEST. Why do I feel the need to constantly remind folks that many people in this forum don't live on the coast or on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Notice how I said that the bulk of the rain is from NYC WEST. Why do I feel the need to constantly remind folks that many people in this forum don't live on the coast or on Long Island. The rain is needed more from NYC east, and the model is probably overdone with what it brings this area, underdone further west like maybe NW NJ and the Poconos. Even Sandy making landfall over Atlantic City brought just showers to most of us from the city north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Notice how I said that the bulk of the rain is from NYC WEST. Why do I feel the need to constantly remind folks that many people in this forum don't live on the coast or on Long Island. I'm pretty sure he's aware of that. Also this event is over 5 days away anyway so why get hung up on where the bullseye of heaviest rain is going to be when it likely won';t end up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 83 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Anything that gives departures of plus 10 is double digits Crazy new math here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The Euro shears out 97l over the Apps, but some moisture streams north along the stalled front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The rain is needed more from NYC east, and the model is probably overdone with what it brings this area, underdone further west like maybe NW NJ and the Poconos. Even Sandy making landfall over Atlantic City brought just showers to most of us from the city north and east. That's because all of the rain with Sandy was displaced to the south of the center. The precip was completely lopsided. Why you would even bring that up as a comparison is just plain stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That's because all of the rain with Sandy was displaced to the south of the center. The precip was completely lopsided. Why you would even bring that up as a comparison is just plain stupid.If you take the GFS's position of the storm verbatim then you move the heavy precipitation about 100 miles west, especially with the front being where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 The 12z GEFS ensembles supported the 12z GFS op fairly well on a low end TS making landfall between New Orleans and the Florida panhandle with quite a few members carrying moisture up the coast. Let's not forget this will have a connection with the gulf so this will have abundent moisture to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 New record highs for today for JFK and ISP. Both 83F so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 If you take the GFS's position of the storm verbatim then you move the heavy precipitation about 100 miles west, especially with the front being where it is. I disagree, the Western side of this sytem is modeled to be dry. The heaviest rainfall should be from just west of the center east. Makes sense to me given how the models have been showing no precip west of the center at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 New record highs for today for JFK and ISP. Both 83F so far. That takes out the 95 and 02 record at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 That takes out the 95 and 02 record at JFK. EWR is also close to their record high today at 86 . 85 at 3pm. Wouldn't be surprised if they already hit it between hours. BDR close too. 3pm 82. Record high 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Makes sense to me given how the models have been showing no precip west of the center at landfall. Model hugging unfortunately has become an acceptable practice among weather hobbyists and some weather professionals alike. Instead of sound, professional forecasting, we see a lot more hype driven vodoo modelcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 2, 2013 Share Posted October 2, 2013 Model hugging unfortunately has become an acceptable practice among weather hobbyists and some weather professionals alike. Instead of sound, professional forecasting, we see a lot more hype driven vodoo modelcasting. Bravo. Couldn't agree more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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