September weather discussion

[CoastalWx]

I don't know if it's a record, but pretty chilly.

 

[Nor'easterblizzard]

That's a cool map coastal, where'd you get that?

[CoastalWx]

That's a cool map coastal, where'd you get that?

 

Nice site on PSU that gives anomalies for a variety of parameters.

 

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/

[Nor'easterblizzard]

Thanks! Another bookmark to add.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like the first frost for MRG land Friday morning. Paint his hair white on the tips.

 

For me and other hilltops..maybe 42-44...Will be nice..then quick rebound Saturday well into 70;s and 80+ Sunday

[Bostonseminole]

I don't see a torch in the horizon.. 70's for next 5-7 days with another cool shot coming by next weekend?

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't see a torch in the horizon.. 70's for next 5-7 days with another cool shot coming by next weekend?

Next week looks very warm Tuesday-Thurs..low-mid 80's

[TalcottWx]

I'll take 70F for my game on Friday night on Staten Island. First game of the year can be a real hot one, escaping that.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

I don't see a torch in the horizon.. 70's for next 5-7 days with another cool shot coming by next weekend?

Agreed, but I also don't see a cold pattern for at least the next 5-10 days, although that could change. Quick cold shots, not prolonged cold. Of course, like I said, that could change.

[powderfreak]

First mention of frost in my zone forecast...the grid has me at 34F on Friday morning. Looking forward to it.

Thursday Night

Clear. Patchy frost. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

[tamarack]

September does have the highest monthly precip standard deviation at BDL, so it can be a bit of a feast or famine month.

 

Probably the same for my short period of record.  We had 11.46" in 9/99 but that's nearly 5" above #2, and we've had 4 Septembers with under 2" and another 4 under 3".  The 15-yr avg is 3.91" but the median is 2.98", and that's the biggest avg-to-median gap for any month.

 

Farther north there's often an "equinoctal pause" in storminess.  Convection decreases rapidly (JJA avg for thunder days is 4/month, for Sept <1, with no Sept with more than 2, and 6 of 15 having none) and the coastals of autumn usually not yet begun.  Without a Floyd or Earl (or this past Labor Day), September can get pretty dry, often with some really great wx.

 

Edit:  GYX morning AFD mentioned the possibility of frost "in the usual places" Friday morning, citing HIE/BML in particular.  They've got upper 30s forecast for the foothills, which could put my frost pocket in play.

[Quincy]

No torch...some areas approach 80 today and maybe we tickle 80 a few days between the weekend and next week, but average highs for most of us are still in the mid to upper 70's, so that's nothing crazy. In the past, I remember hitting 90° plenty of times in September.

[powderfreak]

No torch...some areas approach 80 today and maybe we tickle 80 a few days between the weekend and next week, but average highs for most of us are still in the mid to upper 70's, so that's nothing crazy. In the past, I remember hitting 90° plenty of times in September.

 

Go read the September thread from 2011.  End of the month and dews were still up near 70F at times.  Blizz didn't switch to his cold persona until October that year.

[powderfreak]

Hopefully we get to see some blue boxes on the advisory/warning page... the good ol' cold season colors starting with Frost/Freeze.

 

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
30S LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 20S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
IF LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND...THEN FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED...WITH A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. AGRICULTURAL INTEREST SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE
PROTECTIVE ACTION TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS.

[dendrite]

I don't know if it's a record, but pretty chilly.

 

850T-10.gif

Thanks. I was using those weenie ecens member charts Tim Kelly had posted for the H85 extremes. 0C isn't too shabby for the 1st week of September here. If CON can strongly radiate Thu night they may flirt with 32F by AM. The ThreadEx record for 9/6 is 33F in 2000 so tey have a chance at that. MOS is spitting out 35/36F right now.

[Typhoon Tip]

I guess it depends upon what is a "torch" -- it's forum-speak evolved vernacular, and thus has no formal definition to the science of Meteorology

(...go wonder).  

 

Obviously, then, it is subjective; and I shall add, a volatile source for starting petty squabbles.   If it's +1 anomaly, that's most likely and fairly no where close to the subjective definition in anyone's mind, no -- but if you push things to +5, 7?   When does the blurred boundary get crossed?  It's also relative to the season ...  In it is summer, a +2 daily mean is laughed off as meaningless (usually by the summer-mocker, winter heads - haha).  But by god!  If it's +2 in the winter, hell halth no fury like a New England's subforum winter being violated! That's an outright torch ...  

 

I suppose I will just stay clear of that because it really has lesser merit to me in the first place.   If it is above normal, it is above normal, period.  If it is below normal, it is below normal, and that's a wrap.  

 

What I am still seeing is a persistent relaxation in the semi-permanent trough over SE Canada.   Again, ...seeing as this has trouble sinking in for some, the ECMWF operational run and to somewhat lesser extent, it's ensemble mean, have been good with the timing of troughs, but overcooked with the amplitude, and have had to back off the majority of intervals/cycle runs from D8 inward in time.   

 

Combining that objective observation with the fact that there is a unilateral operational guidance signal for the trough to rotate up and a ridge to temporarily pass through, it sort of compounds reasons to see a period of above normal, as a valid potential.   I am not sure how far that would be...  I doubt seriously the NAVGEM's idea of +21C air tickling western NE is going to take place.   But I also think the ECM's trough flattening the top of the 588dm height circumvallate can be scrutinized the same.  

 

This is all for D6-10.  Obviously now through the middle range we are seasonal to slightly below as beautiful and refreshing change.  

[CapturedNature]

Hopefully we get to see some blue boxes on the advisory/warning page... the good ol' cold season colors starting with Frost/Freeze.

 

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND

THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER

MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR

RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE

30S LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES

FALLING INTO THE 20S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

EXPECTING AREAS OF FROST TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

IF LATER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS TREND...THEN FROST

ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED...WITH A POSSIBLE FREEZE WARNING OVER THE

ADIRONDACKS. AGRICULTURAL INTEREST SHOULD PREPARE TO TAKE

PROTECTIVE ACTION TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS AND CROPS.

 

You have to start someplace.  That's always a good sign.  BOX mentions it but in a round about kind of way:

 

EXPECT A FEW INTERIOR SECTIONS TO DIP A LITTLE BELOW 40F BUT NOT QUITE TO FROST LEVELS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

 

My PnC has 42° but I'm hoping that I get my first 30s since late May.

[Quincy]

As the projected ridge breaks down next week, there could be some convective prospects around Wednesday. Taken literally, 12z Euro/GFS look like at least a marginal threat for the eastern Great Lakes and parts of New York, but not quite into SNE.

 

A lot can and will change between now and then, but our severe probabilities are quickly dropping off the table as (calendar) summer winds down.

[Nor'easterblizzard]

Yeah, usually SEP is SNE's last severe wx month...unless you get a mega-GLC in OCT.

[Quincy]

Yeah, usually SEP is SNE's last severe wx month...unless you get a mega-GLC in OCT.

A few spin-ups have occurred in October, including the infamous Windsor Locks F-4...

 

If we're looking at severe reports, September is pretty much on par with late April/early May, which means if May 1st was the official "start," we're very near the official "end."

[Nor'easterblizzard]

I don't remember that one...F-4 in New England, never-the-less October, is odd.

[moneypitmike]

You have to start someplace.  That's always a good sign.  BOX mentions it but in a round about kind of way:

 

EXPECT A FEW INTERIOR SECTIONS TO DIP A LITTLE BELOW 40F BUT NOT QUITE TO FROST LEVELS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.

 

My PnC has 42° but I'm hoping that I get my first 30s since late May.

 

P/C here is 39, zfp is upper 30's.  I'm expecting about 45.

 

Spectacular out there today.

 

71.8/53 off a high of 73.2

[ORH_wxman]

Euro today is quite transitional with autumn trying to trade punches with summer still holding on. We may get another taste of mid-autumn on Monday as the Euro has trended a bit closer to the GFS on that cool shot, though I think the GFS is still too cold. Euro would imply another chilly morning and mild day...though not as chilly as Friday. It then shows a brief torch trying to get in here for next Wednesday before another potential cooldown.

 

We're in transition season.

[powderfreak]

Euro today is quite transitional with autumn trying to trade punches with summer still holding on. We may get another taste of mid-autumn on Monday as the Euro has trended a bit closer to the GFS on that cool shot, though I think the GFS is still too cold. Euro would imply another chilly morning and mild day...though not as chilly as Friday. It then shows a brief torch trying to get in here for next Wednesday before another potential cooldown.

We're in transition season.

Yep...2 steps one direction, 1.5 steps back the other way. Rinse and repeat. Eventually the calendar will win out, but for now, we could probably have everything from frost chances to humid and 80s.

[Damage In Tolland]

TORCH!!

 

 

04-09-2013

 

  © ECMWF  

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro today is quite transitional with autumn trying to trade punches with summer still holding on. We may get another taste of mid-autumn on Monday as the Euro has trended a bit closer to the GFS on that cool shot, though I think the GFS is still too cold. Euro would imply another chilly morning and mild day...though not as chilly as Friday. It then shows a brief torch trying to get in here for next Wednesday before another potential cooldown.

 

We're in transition season.

 

Hey Will, what's the climo on this sort of thing... I suspect it's pretty much on the money to get this kind of cold shot in early September, but I am not sure.  I have seen near frost in August.  I have seen years without any although through Thanks Giving.  

 

BOS//482726 00104 112710 68241511

06000504419 01104 122714 68231611

12000574923 03104 122613 64211510

18000667359 02202 112812 61191407

24009656644 03205 143510 54170902

30000533214 -3309 183510 52160800

36000492820 -1014 213415 50120698       

42000492125 -1820 233311 52110500

48000322930 -1918 213007 57160804

[weathafella]

Splendid day...superb! Reached the low 80s with low dews.

[CapturedNature]

P/C here is 39, zfp is upper 30's.  I'm expecting about 45.

 

Spectacular out there today.

 

71.8/53 off a high of 73.2

 

Someone at BOX missed the CT Zones in the 415PM update so I'll have to guess my zfp is low 40s.

 

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/cwa/KBOX/ZFP

[Nor'easterblizzard]

Not exactly a torch WX, more like...average.

[dendrite]

Hey Will, what's the climo on this sort of thing... I suspect it's pretty much on the money to get this kind of cold shot in early September, but I am not sure.  I have seen near frost in August.  I have seen years without any although through Thanks Giving.  

 

BOS//482726 00104 112710 68241511

06000504419 01104 122714 68231611

12000574923 03104 122613 64211510

18000667359 02202 112812 61191407

24009656644 03205 143510 54170902

30000533214 -3309 183510 52160800

36000492820 -1014 213415 50120698       

42000492125 -1820 233311 52110500

48000322930 -1918 213007 57160804

I think this is pretty early. Some of the rad spots are threatening record lows on MOS and some images I've seen have us flirting with record low 850s Fri AM.