September weather discussion

[N. OF PIKE]

Euro looks like less of a cool shot wrt 850's for sne

[CoastalWx]

Euro looks like less of a cool shot wrt 850's for sne

Typical waffling. We'll see what ensembles do. Ensembles had 552 thicknesses tickling us.

[Ginx snewx]

Typical waffling. We'll see what ensembles do. Ensembles had 552 thicknesses tickling us.

Doesn't look much different to me. This is a huge spilling of cold air into Canada though. Fall switch for sure day 1 and Day 6

[Typhoon Tip]

Typical waffling. We'll see what ensembles do. Ensembles had 552 thicknesses tickling us.

 

 

Not that anyone asked but I don't find that to be "waffling", as in, going back and forth.  It's more like "correcting" for it's longer term bias to have too much digging heights and cool air beyond D5.5.  Less guilty, the Euro ensembles do this too; just not to the extent as the operational Euro.  Again, timing troughs doesn't seem to be the Euro's issue; amplitude has been bogus.

 

You really want to see a model be bad about this... check out the repulsive GGEM.  Man, that model absolutely cannot be trusted one iota for its extended.  Not that any particular model does well beyond D5 ...hell 4 for that matter.  But putting them all on the ole 1 to 10 sh!t scale, the GGEM clocks in at about a 22! 

 

Anyway, the Euro has been steadily backing off on the amount of cold air coming as far S as our latitude now across some 6 consecutive runs.  Recall the funny "upslope snow" posting    Now, you have seasonal glancing blow at best, and then the operational run does its same old bias by bringing yet another scary anomalous cold trough down that looks suspect right after that.  I am almost willing to guarantee that latter insert comes in less ...then less, then less over again, in the coming runs. 

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles have been pretty steadfast and the gfs op corrected or at least cooled today too. Don't forget this will be a low level push of cooler air on NNE flow. Thicknesses will be high but this is a below 850mb event. You watch.

[Ginx snewx]

Not even a top 5 hot summer .Look where the biggest deviations in July were, overnight lows as we knew.

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201309012010-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

[CoastalWx]

This should be in the other thread. But, I think we all know that the op runs can be bullish. Now GFS is coldest. This is why I don't give a flip about op runs beyond 5 days. I don't see any insane waffling on the ensembles yet the euro

Op is always called out. #wepreachthisallthetime.

[Typhoon Tip]

This should be in the other thread. But, I think we all know that the op runs can be bullish. Now GFS is coldest. This is why I don't give a flip about op runs beyond 5 days. I don't see any insane waffling on the ensembles yet the euro

Op is always called out. #wepreachthisallthetime.

 

 

Eheh, yeah -- 

 

Not so sure about that.  

 

...Just my observation, nothing personal, but whenever the Euro does that uber dig deal the first posts that come out are not like that ... pretty much, ever.  They are always, "Wow, the Euro is cold", followed by "It has merit,"  and they make me cringe.  

 

Then ...sure, and hour or two later some objectivity cleaves its way into the thread(s) et al.   Thing is, sometimes they really do have merit, but those become less obvious as they get obscured when there is a "tendency" to overt embracing a cooler vibe to the pattern at least excuse imaginable.   

 

It's what I am encountering much of the time.   

[powderfreak]

Not even a top 5 hot summer .Look where the biggest deviations in July were, overnight lows as we knew.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201309012010-KBOX-NOUS41-PNSBOX

Overnight lows had almost twice as high departures as daytime highs at every spot but Boston.

[Ginx snewx]

The euro ensembles have been pretty steadfast and the gfs op corrected or at least cooled today too. Don't forget this will be a low level push of cooler air on NNE flow. Thicknesses will be high but this is a below 850mb event. You watch.

Great point

[Ginx snewx]

Eheh, yeah -- 

 

Not so sure about that.  

 

...Just my observation, nothing personal, but whenever the Euro does that uber dig deal the first posts that come out are not like that ... pretty much, ever.  They are always, "Wow, the Euro is cold", followed by "It has merit,"  and they make me cringe.  

 

Then ...sure, and hour or two later some objectivity cleaves its way into the thread(s) et al.   Thing is, sometimes they really do have merit, but those become less obvious as they get obscured when there is a "tendency" to overt embracing a cooler vibe to the pattern at least excuse imaginable.   

 

It's what I am encountering much of the time.   

Euro has nailed the 5H pattern since mid July look at the scores. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro has nailed the 5H pattern since mid July look at the scores. 

 

You can check this but believe those scores are integrated means over the hemisphere as a whole.  I do not believe in quadrature we would find that to be true. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

July was gross. Not scorching hot but warm and humid with no breaks

August was mint though

[CoastalWx]

Eheh, yeah --

Not so sure about that.

...Just my observation, nothing personal, but whenever the Euro does that uber dig deal the first posts that come out are not like that ... pretty much, ever. They are always, "Wow, the Euro is cold", followed by "It has merit," and they make me cringe.

Then ...sure, and hour or two later some objectivity cleaves its way into the thread(s) et al. Thing is, sometimes they really do have merit, but those become less obvious as they get obscured when there is a "tendency" to overt embracing a cooler vibe to the pattern at least excuse imaginable.

It's what I am encountering much of the time.

You may have a point that people perhaps get excited an take it verbatim, but to this met and this applies to you and others...I don't always take what it shows. Maybe we need to

Communicate this better since you now have to give up your first born for euro ensemble data. Too bad Allan's site is gone for

Freebies, but a man has to make money.

[Damage In Tolland]

Will we storms overnight with cooling aloft?

[powderfreak]

Great first day of meteorological fall up here in Stowe...

[weathafella]

Euro ensembles seem warm in the longer range.

[Snow Bow]

Saw some posts yesterday about louder thunder than usual. Weird but true, just had a few very loud rumbles, actually could feel it in the floor of my house.

[TalcottWx]

Looks like I'm getting another dry day up here. When will it rain lol

[Typhoon Tip]

You may have a point that people perhaps get excited an take it verbatim, but to this met and this applies to you and others...I don't always take what it shows. Maybe we need to

Communicate this better since you now have to give up your first born for euro ensemble data. Too bad Allan's site is gone for

Freebies, but a man has to make money.

 

Yeah, it sucks... 

 

Although, not to come off lofty spoken ... is it over-rated a little, though?   Those products I mean --

 

I ask because we have collectively pulled some remarkable and specific early calls on pattern changes, big singular events, you name it, just using our intuitive wit, educations, special insight/foresights/ and the union of different minds.   Sometimes I think it's all bullcrap.  I dunno -- 

 

But I specifically remember 2 weeks before Sandy posting with you and other Mets that the SW Atlantic Basic looked scary and we didn't need those tools to see it.  

 

ah well 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, it sucks...

Although, not to come off lofty spoken ... is it over-rated a little, though? Those products I mean --

I ask because we have collectively pulled some remarkable and specific early calls on pattern changes, big singular events, you name it, just using our intuitive wit, educations, special insight/foresights/ and the union of different minds. Sometimes I think it's all bullcrap. I dunno --

But I specifically remember 2 weeks before Sandy posting with you and other Mets that the SW Atlantic Basic looked scary and we didn't need those tools to see it.

ah well

No it's certainly not a God send or anything, but it is the better suite of guidance. To be honest, I mention it more than the GEFS because I know 98% of people can't see it. The PSU site is good for GEFS anomalies.

[dendrite]

No it's certainly not a God send or anything, but it is the better suite of guidance. To be honest, I mention it more than the GEFS because I know 98% of people can't see it. The PSU site is good for GEFS anomalies.

It's definitely tough to beat the ecens in that 6-10d+ period. I never see anyone here realistically expecting the LR op runs to happen. We get weenie runs that we "lol" at or sarcastically "lock in". Even the non mets in this subforum know better by now.

Some like to meh the models sometimes, but we've come a long way in the last 20-30 years. The old timer BOS mets had legit reason to go against the computer printouts they were getting back then. Ops and MOS are pretty damn good inside of 36-48hrs now. When synoptics are controlling the pattern they're going to be right way more often than not. I know you know all of this...I'm just throwing it out there.

[powderfreak]

BTV going chilly in the extended forecast...Thursday is forecast to be coldest day in a long time with highs in the 55-65F range.

Wednesday Night and Thursday

Partly cloudy. Lows around 50. Highs in the lower 60s.

Thursday Night and Friday

Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.

AFD snippet:

Generally cooler than normal temperatures throughout the long term...with the coldest day/night being Thursday into Thursday night with maximum temperatures in the 50s-60s and min temperatures in the 30s to near 50. Temperatures will moderate after this cold shot...but remain about 5 degrees cooler than normal. &&

[CoastalWx]

It's definitely tough to beat the ecens in that 6-10d+ period. I never see anyone here realistically expecting the LR op runs to happen. We get weenie runs that we "lol" at or sarcastically "lock in". Even the non mets in this subforum know better by now.

Some like to meh the models sometimes, but we've come a long way in the last 20-30 years. The old timer BOS mets had legit reason to go against the computer printouts they were getting back then. Ops and MOS are pretty damn good inside of 36-48hrs now. When synoptics are controlling the pattern they're going to be right way more often than not. I know you know all of this...I'm just throwing it out there.

I think John is implying the euro being a little too ambitious with troughs in the northeast which does happen, but the ensembles honestly haven't waved all that much. It's a shame we can't look at the ensembles to hr 240 anymore unless it's paid.

Models even compared to 8 years ago are performing very well. A weene metric to use as a guide is the lack of over or underperformed systems on models. They still happen (ie 2010-2011 winter) but not like even 10 years ago.

[Ginx snewx]

Euro ensembles seem warm in the longer range.

rolling pattern and you know where it's going. The cold in Canada on the Ens is impressive, almost time for your snowcover maps

[powderfreak]

I never see anyone here realistically expecting the LR op runs to happen. We get weenie runs that we "lol" at or sarcastically "lock in". Even the non mets in this subforum know better by now.

I'm still expecting that early season upslope snow on the picnic tables at 4kft that the 10-day ECMWF promised me.

[dendrite]

I think John is implying the euro being a little too ambitious with troughs in the northeast which does happen, but the ensembles honestly haven't waved all that much. It's a shame we can't look at the ensembles to hr 240 anymore unless it's paid.

Models even compared to 8 years ago are performing very well. A weene metric to use as a guide is the lack of over or underperformed systems on models. They still happen (ie 2010-2011 winter) but not like even 10 years ago.

It's not the best, but ecmwf.int still puts some images out.

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013090112!!/

 

And yeah, the op runs go looney in the extended, but it's gone as bonkers with warm progs as it has the mega troughs. How many times has it tried to blast +24C up here d8-10 over the last few summers?

[CoastalWx]

It's not the best, but ecmwf.int still puts some images out.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013090112!!/

And yeah, the op runs go looney in the extended, but it's gone as bonkers with warm progs as it has the mega troughs. How many times has it tried to blast +24C up here d8-10 over the last few summers?

Absolutely. Can't forget the other bias too. I do think those longer range op progs can serve as a benchmark or hints at the upcoming pattern. For instance if we start seeing seesaw runs of the GFS showing warmer or colder solutions...it's probably trying to tell us something.

[joey2002]

It feels so incredibly tropical outside!

[CoastalWx]

You may have a point that people perhaps get excited an take it verbatim, but to this met and this applies to you and others...I don't always take what it shows. Maybe we need to

Communicate this better since you now have to give up your first born for euro ensemble data. Too bad Allan's site is gone for

Freebies, but a man has to make money.

 

And AWT, it wavered again. Now euro is colder. Ensembles ticked cooler too, but not the oscillations the euro op has.