user13 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 SPC just put half on NYC in Slight Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 SPC just put half on NYC in Slight Risk which half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 which half? Southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Lapse rates are poor. But CAPE and PWATS are high enough for a few wet microbursts in the slight risk area. Also could be a weak spinup further NE, closer to the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 My buddy sent me a couple of photos of the flooding that is occurring in Middletown now. 5.05" here.... Flooding is impressive to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Some rotation with that cell over the sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Temp up to 86/76 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 I only got a brief 10 minute downpour yesterday so I continue to wonder where is all the heavy rain they were talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Southern areas This goes up all the time, maybe one of these days they'll get right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 88 in EWR, 85 in NYC, the highs so far. Today will be first August day with positive departures, at most of the climo sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 88 in EWR, 85 in NYC, the highs so far. Today will be first August day with positive departures, at most of the climo sites. After tomorrow it's possible we don't see any positives for another 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2013 Author Share Posted August 9, 2013 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSPECIAL MARINE WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY258 PM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY...LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY...* UNTIL 345 PM EDT...* AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ALINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS FROM 3NM SOUTHWEST OF STRATFORD SHOAL TO 4 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUNTINGTONBAY...MOVING EAST AT 30 KT.* THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...SMITHTOWN BAY AROUND 305 PM...PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR AROUND 315 PM...MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...LIGHTNING...AND HEAVYRAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORMPASSES.FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THEOPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDEDMETAL OBJECTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darienzo Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 88 in EWR, 85 in NYC, the highs so far. Today will be first August day with positive departures, at most of the climo sites. Up to 88 at LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 I only got a brief 10 minute downpour yesterday so I continue to wonder where is all the heavy rain they were talking about The tears from you crying about it maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Another bust for eastern areas. Seems like the models have been having this problem all summer long. Noticing some fall colors on the trees already, particularly the Norway Maples. Leaves are turning yellow, red, and orange. Probably caused by the drier than normal conditions and recent cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2013 Author Share Posted August 9, 2013 Another bust for eastern areas. Seems like the models have been having this problem all summer long. Noticing some fall colors on the trees already, particularly the Norway Maples. Leaves are turning yellow, red, and orange. Probably caused by the drier than normal conditions and recent cooler weather. The North Shore has seen most of the Long Island action this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 It's real weird how we have not had any severe threats at all this summer. Have not even been in a warning since last July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2013 Author Share Posted August 9, 2013 It's real weird how we have not had any severe threats at all this summer. Have not even been in a warning since last July Yeah, it's been really quiet around our area compared to what we usually see by this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Severe season could still pick up late August into September. We've had many memorable events in that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The North Shore has seen most of the Long Island action this summer. Mt Sinai / Port Jeff cooperative with 0.62 inches of rain today and some more on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 It's been a complete bore. I'm just hoping the tropics pick up soon to make things a bit more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 0.06 here in central nassau for the whole event. Piss poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2013 Author Share Posted August 10, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is finally starting to show the WAR beginning to build west again from around 8-20 on. So I think that the coolest daily departures for the month will be over by then. The average split for Central Park during the last 10 days of August is 81-66. So I think that we'll see several +5 or greater daily departure days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Beautiful day for for Kenny at MetLife Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 8/9 highs (clouds keeping 90s just out of reach for most). Park remains between 2 and 4 below most other metro stations TEB: 91 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 New Brunswick: 87 NYC: 85 JFK; 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Some positive departures 8/8 - 8/10 bringing the monthly totals to -2 to -3. Looks like we'll add some more negatives 8/12 - 8/16 (peaking 8/13 - 8/15) before moderating back towards and above normal between 8/17 and 8/20. Guidance still hinting that the last week of august we could see a return of some heat and stronger positive departures on/around 8/22. EWR: 8/8: 84/70 (+1) 8/9: 88/74 (+4) NYC: 8/8: 81/70 (+0) 8/9: 85/74 (+4) LGA: 8/8: 83/71 (0) 8/9: 89/74 (+5) JFK: 8/8: 81/70 (+0) 8/9: 82/74 (+4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Another bust for eastern areas. Seems like the models have been having this problem all summer long. Noticing some fall colors on the trees already, particularly the Norway Maples. Leaves are turning yellow, red, and orange. Probably caused by the drier than normal conditions and recent cooler weather. The trees are definitly stressing. It has been super dry all summer on the south shore. Other then some rain Thursday night we had exactly 3 drops of rain yesterday in Wantagh.The cold front went through with a wind shift and nothing else... This after a 6 inch day in May. Feast or famine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 The trees are definitly stressing. It has been super dry all summer on the south shore. Other then some rain Thursday night we had exactly 3 drops of rain yesterday in Wantagh.The cold front went through with a wind shift and nothing else... This after a 6 inch day in May. Feast or famine. Yeah, only had 0.43" on the 8th and that was it. Got nothing yesterday even though the models were still showing it all day yesterday. Was going to go fishing yesterday, decided not to because I thought it was going to rain. It never did. I got a little less than 2 1/2" of rain in July, which isn't terrible. But if you want to keep things green, you're going to need more rain than that, especially in the summer months. Long Island's micro-climate amazes me. Could be the wettest month on record on the north shore and driest month on record on the south shore, that would be pretty odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Yeah, only had 0.43" on the 8th and that was it. Got nothing yesterday even though the models were still showing it all day yesterday. Was going to go fishing yesterday, decided not to because I thought it was going to rain. It never did. I got a little less than 2 1/2" of rain in July, which isn't terrible. But if you want to keep things green, you're going to need more rain than that, especially in the summer months. Long Island's micro-climate amazes me. Could be the wettest month on record on the north shore and driest month on record on the south shore, that would be pretty odd. This all makes sense earlier in the season when water temps are lower and thus the sea breeze is more pronounced. What is strange is this time of year the sea breeze and its associated more stable air shouldnt be as big of an issue and we should have seen the front and storms charge rght off the coast but no not yesterday. Honestly I think allot of it is bad luck lately, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 The Euro ensemble mean is finally starting to show the WAR beginning to build west again from around 8-20 on. So I think that the coolest daily departures for the month will be over by then. The average split for Central Park during the last 10 days of August is 81-66. So I think that we'll see several +5 or greater daily departure days. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_120.gif Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif You got to it before I did, was just going to post this. The ECMWF ensembles which saw the August cool are now beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel w/ the retrograding WAR post 8/20. We'll have to see if the 12z ECM continues with that idea or it gets pushed back further, but over the past few weeks I've thought the last week of August would feature rapid warming in the Northeast, ultimately leading to the mean ridge position over the NE for the month of September. Long range guidance seems to suggest that right now. Even still, it's the ECMWF ensembles at 240hrs so I'd like to see another cycle or two of the WAR returning around / slightly after 8/20. Prior to that time, a significant autumnal airmass heads for the Northeast 8/13-8/17 of this week, with 850mb temps near or below +10c for most northeast of DCA. Probably going to see a couple days or more with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s for suburbia (maybe 40s for far off suburbs). NYC does worse in radiational cooling regimes so they'll probably remain in the 60s. I expect most of the Northeast to have fairly significant negative departures going into the final 10 days of August. Those negatives will come up somewhat but not enough to make August normal or above normal IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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