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August 2013 Observations And Discussions

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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bluewave

bluewave

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dates for the last 90 degree day in NYC...

1880 7/10

1883 7/7

1887 7/31

1889 6/9 two for the year...5/10 was the other...

1902 7/9 only one that year...

1903 7/30

1904 7/31

1934 7/31

1950 7/31

1963 7/29

1982 7/27

1986 7/26

2013 7/20 so far...

since the heat island took over in the mid 1900's 2013 will end up with the earliest last 90 day if there are no more...

 

This may turn out to be the first 7 negative departures in a row to start August since 1992 at Central Park.

If you shave off a couple of degrees to account for the cooler summer highs there now, 1992 would have maxed

out in the upper 80's with similar conditions to today. NYC only made it to 98 in July while the 

other stations were two degrees warmer at 100. So I think that NYC has a shot at no 90's

this August, but I am not sure about September. 

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-CA03AF7D-68AE-4784-AB1D-A866633ED113.pdf

 1  76  66  71  -5   0   6 0.65  0.0    0  3.0 10 160   M    M   8 18     16 180 2  83  67  75  -1   0  10 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 13 270   M    M   3 1      25 250
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SACRUS

SACRUS

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Posted

 

This may turn out to be the first 7 negative departures in a row to start August since 1992 at Central Park.

If you shave off a couple of degrees to account for the cooler summer highs there now, 1992 would have maxed

out in the upper 80's with similar conditions to today. NYC only made it to 98 in July while the 

other stations were two degrees warmer at 100. So I think that NYC has a shot at no 90's

this August, but I am not sure about September. 

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-CA03AF7D-68AE-4784-AB1D-A866633ED113.pdf

 1  76  66  71  -5   0   6 0.65  0.0    0  3.0 10 160   M    M   8 18     16 180 2  83  67  75  -1   0  10 0.00  0.0    0  4.5 13 270   M    M   3 1      25 250

 

 

The park also a few cooler than others yesterday

 

LGA: 86/70 (+0)

JFK: 85/68 (+1)

EWR:  87/67 (+1)

New Brunswick:  86/64 (+0)

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

six years had 90's after none in August....in 1986 it almost hit 90 on September 30th...it was 89 in the park...it's to early to give up on 90 degree temperatures...

year...Aug...Sep...Oct...

1894...87....93....70

1897...89....93....87

1910...86....92....84

1915...89....94....79

1927...83....92....90

1946...89....90....87

 

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

dates for the last 90 degree day in NYC...

1880 7/10

1883 7/7

1887 7/31

1889 6/9 two for the year...5/10 was the other...

1902 7/9 only one that year...

1903 7/30

1904 7/31

1934 7/31

1950 7/31

1963 7/29

1982 7/27

1986 7/26

2013 7/20 so far...

since the heat island took over in the mid 1900's 2013 will end up with the earliest last 90 day if there are no more...

I thought the year 2000 was the only time in history CPK had no 90 degree days during the astronomical summer, having about 7 before June 21.   Also 1996 was similar, but did manage 90 degrees for a few minutes in late Aug.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

August will be very cool but I think the ridge will return with a vengeance for the month of September. Usually strong trough regimes in August do not feature summer fading quietly into the night. The record breaking cold August of 2004 for the US, which this month will probably be comparable to, reversed into a blowtorch pattern across the Mid-west/Northeast for September. We may not see a lot of 90s in September but we might have an abnormally large amount of 80+ days with high humidity as the mid level ridging up in Canada connects southeastward to the Atlantic Ridge.

 

bgtnr9.png

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uncle W

uncle W

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I thought the year 2000 was the only time in history CPK had no 90 degree days during the astronomical summer, having about 7 before June 21.   Also 1996 was similar, but did manage 90 degrees for a few minutes in late Aug.

8/9/2000 reached 90...the 3rd straight day 88 or higher...

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uncle W

uncle W

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I thought the year 2000 was the only time in history CPK had no 90 degree days during the astronomical summer, having about 7 before June 21.   Also 1996 was similar, but did manage 90 degrees for a few minutes in late Aug.

1889 was the only year with no 90's after 6/9...years that came close...

year...July...Aug...max

1880...91...89...

1889...89...87

1902...90...89

1959...90...91

1960...91...91

1967...90...90

1996...89...90

2000...89...90

2004...87...90

2009...86...92

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Day 11 of the Cooldown

 

EWR:

7/24: 84/68 (-2)

7/25: 68/62 (-12)

7/26: 85/66 (-2)

7/27: 84/67 (-2)

7/28: 80/69 (-2)

7/29: 87/70 (+2)

7/30: 83/65 (-2)

7/31: 83/66 (-3)

8/1:  75/68 (-5)

8/2:  87/67 (+1)

8/3:  80/69 (-2)

 

NYC:

7/24: 83/68 (-1)

7/25: 68/64 (-11)

7/26: 83/65 (-3)

7/27: 82/70 (-1)

7/28: 78/70 (-3)

7/29: 85/69 (0)

7/30: 83/67 (-2)

7/31: 8/3 / 67 (-2)

8/1: 76/66 (-6)

8/2: 83/67 (-2)

8/3: 78/68 (-3)

 

LGA:

7/24: 83/69 (-2)

7/25: 70/64 (-11)

7/26: 84/65 (-3)

7/27: 84/71 (0)

7/28: 82/71 (-1)

7/29: 89/71 (+2)

7/30:  82/70 (-2)

7/31: 82/71 (-1)

8/1:  79/69  (-4)

8/2: 86/70 (+0)

8/3: 80/71 (-2)

 

 

JFK:

7/24: 88/70 (+3)

7/25: 70/63 (-9)

7/26: 84/64 (-2)

7/27: 81/68 (-1)

7/28: 78/68 (-3)

7/29: 84/73 (+2)

7/30:  85/67 (+0)

7/31:  82/68 (-1)

8/1:  77/68 (-3)

8/2:  85/68 (+1)

8/3:  78/70 (-2)

 

 

New brunswick:

7/24: 83/64 (-2)

7/25: 69/65 (-9)

7/26: 84/65 (0)

7/27: 86/64 (0)

7/28: 84/65(0)

7/29:  87/57 (-3)

7/30: 84/58 (-4)

7/31: 83/68 (+1)

8/1:  72/63 (-7)

8/2: 86/64 (+0)

8/3: 79/59 (-5)

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SACRUS

SACRUS

Posted
Posted

Just a great day - reminded me of the west coast.  Cooler weather continues into the first part of the week.  Still think we have a brief window between fri (8/9) and sat (8/10) for some 90 degree readings, especially in the warmer spots.  The next trough digs in deep next sunday (8/11) into the following week thru 8/14.   Suspect we see our coolest departures 8/5 - 8/7 and 8/12 - 8/14 

 

Longer range offering hints that warmer second half of august may be in the cards but still atelast 10 days of overall cooler than normal with a brief surge of summer the end of this week.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Beautiful day here in Westchester, 78.4/55, heading for the mid 50s tonight. Absolutely gorgeous and more cool weather to come next weekend as the second strong trough pushes south. 

 

 

Yeah I only hit 79.3F today, sub 80F under full early August sun isn't too shabby. I reached upper 50s in the last cool shot in late July so I'm hoping for mid 50s with this one.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

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Just a great day - reminded me of the west coast.  Cooler weather continues into the first part of the week.  Still think we have a brief window between fri (8/9) and sat (8/10) for some 90 degree readings, especially in the warmer spots.  The next trough digs in deep next sunday (8/11) into the following week thru 8/14.   Suspect we see our coolest departures 8/5 - 8/7 and 8/12 - 8/14 

 

Longer range offering hints that warmer second half of august may be in the cards but still atelast 10 days of overall cooler than normal with a brief surge of summer the end of this week.

 

I've never been to the west coast but I agree today would probably be a southern California type day (coastal).

 

12z guidance, both ECM and GFS, continue to be quite bullish on the mean trough remaining in the Northeast through D 10. I'd be surprised if NYC hit 90F before the 15th, but I can see Newark possibly doing it. This will probably be our greatest number of below average departure days since March 2013. As I posted earlier today, I see the pattern reversing for September, and it could do so by late August. However, I believe it would be too little too late in terms of warming departures up.

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SACRUS

SACRUS

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I've never been to the west coast but I agree today would probably be a southern California type day (coastal).

 

12z guidance, both ECM and GFS, continue to be quite bullish on the mean trough remaining in the Northeast through D 10. I'd be surprised if NYC hit 90F before the 15th, but I can see Newark possibly doing it. This will probably be our greatest number of below average departure days since March 2013. As I posted earlier today, I see the pattern reversing for September, and it could do so by late August. However, I believe it would be too little too late in terms of warming departures up.

 

Just a touch warmer than typical Socal coastal but very similar feel and quite enjoyable.   Pending on clouds and storms i still think  fri/sat could push 90 in some areas and thu - sat are at or above normal if we dont see complete washout days.  I  doubt the park gets to 90 but we know it's been running about 2 - 4 degrees lower than other NYC stations for highs in the summer.  As far as departures we'll likely stack the deck with -3 to -4 departures by the 15th and at best we'll close in on a degree of normal if we get the warmth the second half.   I agree with you that we see some later summer heat but think we get the ridging and sustained warmer weather between the 16 - 31/into early Sep.  Im not sure how sustained it lasts into the rest of Sep, it wouldnt surprise me if the month turned wetter and cooler overall (but thats way way ahead).

 

Looks like the analogs (excessive wet june to hot July) switched from 2006 to more of a 2008/2003 blend of analogs now for august.  

 

Windows open and crickets chirping....

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IntenseBlizzard2014

IntenseBlizzard2014

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Just a touch warmer than typical Socal coastal but very similar feel and quite enjoyable. Pending on clouds and storms i still think fri/sat could push 90 in some areas and thu - sat are at or above normal if we dont see complete washout days. I doubt the park gets to 90 but we know it's been running about 2 - 4 degrees lower than other NYC stations for highs in the summer. As far as departures we'll likely stack the deck with -3 to -4 departures by the 15th and at best we'll close in on a degree of normal if we get the warmth the second half. I agree with you that we see some later summer heat but think we get the ridging and sustained warmer weather between the 16 - 31/into early Sep. Im not sure how sustained it lasts into the rest of Sep, it wouldnt surprise me if the month turned wetter and cooler overall (but thats way way ahead).

Looks like the analogs (excessive wet june to hot July) switched from 2006 to more of a 2008/2003 blend of analogs now for august.

Windows open and crickets chirping....

What I see is the warmer air sticking around from August 24th and lasting until at least September 15th. Then near average for the rest of September with burst of warmer air until September 25th. That's just my analysis. I know. It's too early to talk about the second half of September.
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