Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Day 15 of the Cooldown - shuould moderate back to and above normal today thru sat before next cooldown which should peak 8/13 - 8/15. EWR: 7/24: 84/68 (-2) 7/25: 68/62 (-12) 7/26: 85/66 (-2) 7/27: 84/67 (-2) 7/28: 80/69 (-2) 7/29: 87/70 (+2) 7/30: 83/65 (-2) 7/31: 83/66 (-3) 8/1: 75/68 (-5) 8/2: 87/67 (+1) 8/3: 80/69 (-2) 8/4: 82/64 (-4) 8/5: 80/62 (-6) 8/6: 81/61 (-6) 8/7: 80/69 (-2) NYC: 7/24: 83/68 (-1) 7/25: 68/64 (-11) 7/26: 83/65 (-3) 7/27: 82/70 (-1) 7/28: 78/70 (-3) 7/29: 85/69 (0) 7/30: 83/67 (-2) 7/31: 8/3 / 67 (-2) 8/1: 76/66 (-6) 8/2: 83/67 (-2) 8/3: 78/68 (-3) 8/4: 80/66 (-3) 8/5: 78/62 (-6) 8/6: 82/64 (-3) 8/7: 80/70 (-1) LGA: 7/24: 83/69 (-2) 7/25: 70/64 (-11) 7/26: 84/65 (-3) 7/27: 84/71 (0) 7/28: 82/71 (-1) 7/29: 89/71 (+2) 7/30: 82/70 (-2) 7/31: 82/71 (-1) 8/1: 79/69 (-4) 8/2: 86/70 (+0) 8/3: 80/71 (-2) 8/4: 81/69 (-3) 8/5: 79/64 (-6) 8/6: 82/67 (-2) 8/7: 82/72 (+0) JFK: 7/24: 88/70 (+3) 7/25: 70/63 (-9) 7/26: 84/64 (-2) 7/27: 81/68 (-1) 7/28: 78/68 (-3) 7/29: 84/73 (+2) 7/30: 85/67 (+0) 7/31: 82/68 (-1) 8/1: 77/68 (-3) 8/2: 85/68 (+1) 8/3: 78/70 (-2) 8/4: 83/67 (-1) 8/5: 80/64 (-4) 8/6: 80/64 (-4) 8/7: 80/70 (-1) New Brunswick: 7/24: 83/64 (-2) 7/25: 69/65 (-9) 7/26: 84/65 (0) 7/27: 86/64 (0) 7/28: 84/65(0) 7/29: 87/57 (-3) 7/30: 84/58 (-4) 7/31: 83/68 (+1) 8/1: 72/63 (-7) 8/2: 86/64 (+0) 8/3: 79/59 (-5) 8/4: 81/54 (-7) 8/5: 81/56 (-6) 8/6: 82/63 (-2) 8/7: 80/64 (-2) 00Z guidance showed well above normal temperatures (probably more 90+ days here) starting sometime between August 17th or 19th with a huge ridge in the eastern US. But the GFS keeps going back & forth on this idea while the Euro timing of it seems extremely uncertain. The details remain unclear. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 The humidity is back full force today. I was surprised when I walked out the door. I hadn't checked the dews since last night when it was still decent out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Looks like we have some heavy showers going up close to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 What is up with the mobile ads are you kidding me? I even donated to the damned board. You can't even X them out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 00Z guidance showed well above normal temperatures (probably more 90+ days here) starting sometime between August 17th or 19th with a huge ridge in the eastern US. But the GFS keeps going back & forth on this idea while the Euro timing of it seems extremely uncertain. The details remain unclear. WX/PT Any strong heat of more than 1 day of 90F temperatures should wait until at least several days after that IMO. The 12z GFS brings a strong cool shot into the Northeast for the 13th-18th period and although we moderate to near normal by the following week, it's not a torch pattern yet. The GFS ensembles originally though the WAR would be strong in the East for August 1st-7th and NYC is -3.5 on the month, so we see how that idea verified. The Euro ensembles have been superior in this pattern regarding the handling of the WAR and the Northeast trough. They don't really reverse the Northeast trough through 240 hours, and anything beyond that is pretty uncertain at this point. Still, I believe the analogs, pattern persistence, and SSTA of the Atlantic favor the return to the mid level ridge in the NE for September, possibly late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Appreciate the posts, being that the models (GFS and Euro) only go out 384 hrs how do you guys see this warm up end of month? Im new to watching models and trying to understand the rationale. Are we assuming that currently we are going through the same pattern as we saw in June? And toward the end of the month we should return to the pattern seen in July? Thanks. No problem. The pattern from late June-late July was historic in the sense that we rarely see such high humidity for 3-4 consecutive weeks. In all likelihood the high dew point air will be prevalent during September but I doubt it will be as persistent or long lasting as June 20th-July 20th. We'll probably see more interruptions of cooler air as is typical once we get to mid/late September. I also strongly doubt that we'll see a string of days in the 95-100F range for end of August--September, and it's more probable that we have a bunch of low 90s days, maybe some mid 90s depending upon the strength of the ridge. We'll have to wait to see on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Flood advisory out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 What is up with the mobile ads are you kidding me? I even donated to the damned board. You can't even X them out. What mobile ads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 What mobile ads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Just got crushed in Florham Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Northern Rockland got hit really hard. Numerous trees into houses, wind damage, and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted August 8, 2013 Share Posted August 8, 2013 Looks like I took the heat with me to Poland. In the 90s here and no A/C, lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 3.70" since midnight as of 8:30am when I left the house and it was still pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 3.76" here and counting since midnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 3.76" here and counting since midnight... Looked like the Rockland/Orange border has been the cutoff for the real heavy stuff all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 4.47" and counting... Heavy Rain falling at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 4.47" and counting... Heavy Rain falling at the moment. wow. Impressive. Not much down this way, maybe .25 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 4.47" and counting... Heavy Rain falling at the moment. My buddy sent me a couple of photos of the flooding that is occurring in Middletown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 watching remote from the GOM. Looks like clouds/showers will kill any chance of 90 today but there could be some longer breaks should see temps climb to the mid/upper 80s. Tomorrow looks like the best shot at 90s since Jul 23. It will depend on how much we can clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2013 Author Share Posted August 9, 2013 3.76" here and counting since midnight... Tropical airmass over the region today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Tropical airmass over the region today. Screen shot 2013-08-09 at 10.41.48 AM.png The models seem to be all over the place with regards to rainfall. Most have the heaviest this morning but radar is pretty dead south of I-80. And yesterday we overperformed big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Heavy rain in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Tropical airmass over the region today. Screen shot 2013-08-09 at 10.41.48 AM.png SPC Meso has 2.3"+ pwats over the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Got hammered down in Duck Key with a tropical squall. Intense thunder and very gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Got hammered down in Duck Key with a tropical squall. Intense thunder and very gusty winds. Your dewpoint is probably lower than ours. We're at 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 HRRR has some heavy storms going up in the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 The models seem to be all over the place with regards to rainfall. Most have the heaviest this morning but radar is pretty dead south of I-80. And yesterday we overperformed big time. How much did we end up with yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 Completely cleared up here in Queens, Temps jumping now up to 82/76 - I don't know why but today has that thunderstorm feel outside - lets see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 How much did we end up with yesterday? my area got a couple rounds of heavy rain totally an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 9, 2013 Share Posted August 9, 2013 my area got a couple rounds of heavy rain totally an inch or so. We have been doing well with these convective rain set ups. Lawns are nice and green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.