Weathergun Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 All the models and ensembles consistent in pattern change in North Pacific and Canada, starting late next week. The mean trough moving out of the Aleutians and into Gulf of Alaska and higher heights over SE Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Not reaching out potential for upper 80s today...so far just 76F at HPN here in Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 You got to it before I did, was just going to post this. The ECMWF ensembles which saw the August cool are now beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel w/ the retrograding WAR post 8/20. We'll have to see if the 12z ECM continues with that idea or it gets pushed back further, but over the past few weeks I've thought the last week of August would feature rapid warming in the Northeast, ultimately leading to the mean ridge position over the NE for the month of September. Long range guidance seems to suggest that right now. Even still, it's the ECMWF ensembles at 240hrs so I'd like to see another cycle or two of the WAR returning around / slightly after 8/20. Prior to that time, a significant autumnal airmass heads for the Northeast 8/13-8/17 of this week, with 850mb temps near or below +10c for most northeast of DCA. Probably going to see a couple days or more with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s for suburbia (maybe 40s for far off suburbs). NYC does worse in radiational cooling regimes so they'll probably remain in the 60s. I expect most of the Northeast to have fairly significant negative departures going into the final 10 days of August. Those negatives will come up somewhat but not enough to make August normal or above normal IMO. We'll see, I think it could end up August with temperatures having averaged near or slightly below normal at Central Park and I think we will see more 90+ degree days before the month is done, perhaps a 3-5 day stretch of them sometime in the last 11 days of the month. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 We'll see, I think it could end up August with temperatures having averaged near or slightly below normal at Central Park and I think we will see more 90+ degree days before the month is done, perhaps a 3-5 day stretch of them sometime in the last 11 days of the month. WX/PT I wouldn't go that far. The 10 Year Climatology+Decreasing Averages+Reversing Sunrise and Sunset begs to differ. Maybe isolated areas will see 90F+, but otherwise I see 89F-90F as the maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 we can hit 100 in september and 90 in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 latest date for temperatures 90 or higher in NYC... temp....dates... 103.....08/26/1948 102.....09/02/1953 101.....09/07/1881 99.......09/11/1983 97.......09/23/1895 94.......10/05/1941 91.......10/10/1939 90.......10/17/1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 Hit 97 here on 9/1/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 we can hit 100 in september and 90 in octoberI don't think NYC has hit 90F in October since the 1940s...maybe EWR did in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 jfk hit 90 in 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 we can hit 100 in september and 90 in october 100 in September has only been done once in Central Park since 1881. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2013 Share Posted August 10, 2013 100 in September has only been done once in Central Park since 1881.September 2,1953, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 September 2,1953, right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 100 in September has only been done once in Central Park since 1881. 102.....09/02/1953 101.....09/07/1881 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 102.....09/02/1953 101.....09/07/1881 The Dodgers were home that day (1953) and even though it was a night game, there were many runs and hits. http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/1953/B09020BRO1953.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 The morning low for Mount Vernon was 60F/52F. I expecting 64F (according to the forecast), but my expectations were nicely exceeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2013 Author Share Posted August 11, 2013 It looks like we'll have enough shear with a 40 kt mid-level jet on Tuesday for severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 It looks like we'll have enough shear with a 40 kt mid-level jet on Tuesday for severe potential. 130811115032.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=KNYC&mo=gfs_avn_us&pl=out4&ft=h60&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=640x480 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 What a gorgeous morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 11, 2013 Share Posted August 11, 2013 Wednesday looks gorgeous for the area. Mid to Upper 70s with Low Humidity along with a NW Flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 00Z ECMWF intensifies the Maine low pressure from 1007 mb on Day 2 to 992 mb on Day 3. Not something you usually see in the month of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 What a gorgeous morning. ...and it was a gorgeous beach day on the east end..wind was calm to start (ocean was like glass) then the sea breeze took over for the rest of the day..all under a sunny sky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 Very heavy downpour in Western Nassau now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Good job by the 4km NAM and HRRR for picking up this morning rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Good job by the 4km NAM and HRRR for picking up this morning rain here.Yeah really came down here this morning... picked up 0.85 in. in less than 30 minutes around 7 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Humid in the city today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Slight risk for tomorrow - I don't think the timing of the front works in our favor though, unless we can get some sun in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Slight risk for tomorrow - I don't think the timing of the front works in our favor though, unless we can get some sun in the afternoon. I'll be in Arizona so you guys will get blasted for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 Only 71F here, once again not sure we'll make a forecasted high in the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 I'll be in Arizona so you guys will get blasted for sure haha, yea i have a trip at the beginning of September, I am sure there will be a derecho that week too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 06 GFS looks to bring back the WAR by next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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