bluewave Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 The 12z Euro keeps the heaviest storms to our south tomorrow with a weak wave of LP developing on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 The 12z Euro keeps the heaviest storms to our south tomorrow with a weak wave of LP developing on the front. It still drops .74" of rain on NYC from 6z to 18z. With the majority of it 12z to 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 12, 2013 Author Share Posted August 12, 2013 It still drops .74" of rain on NYC from 6z to 18z. With the majority of it 12z to 15z. If the low comes a little further north, we'll get into the heavy stuff. It may end up being another nowcast special once we see the actual radar tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 12, 2013 Share Posted August 12, 2013 The RAP shows the weak low pressure developing in Central PA Tuesday morning and moving east along a warm front. The NAM also has some decent parameters between 12 and 15z as the low pressure passes nearby. I wonder if tomorrow could be a sneaky event where we see some wind damage reports and maybe the potential for some spinups along the front and near the sfc low. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RUCNE_18z/f12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sutherlandfan Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 You got to it before I did, was just going to post this. The ECMWF ensembles which saw the August cool are now beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel w/ the retrograding WAR post 8/20. We'll have to see if the 12z ECM continues with that idea or it gets pushed back further, but over the past few weeks I've thought the last week of August would feature rapid warming in the Northeast, ultimately leading to the mean ridge position over the NE for the month of September. Long range guidance seems to suggest that right now. Even still, it's the ECMWF ensembles at 240hrs so I'd like to see another cycle or two of the WAR returning around / slightly after 8/20. Prior to that time, a significant autumnal airmass heads for the Northeast 8/13-8/17 of this week, with 850mb temps near or below +10c for most northeast of DCA. Probably going to see a couple days or more with highs remaining in the 70s and lows in the 50s for suburbia (maybe 40s for far off suburbs). NYC does worse in radiational cooling regimes so they'll probably remain in the 60s. I expect most of the Northeast to have fairly significant negative departures going into the final 10 days of August. Those negatives will come up somewhat but not enough to make August normal or above normal IMO. Seems like the 12z euro ens is already removing the Bermuda High and the heat that it brought in for the end if the month. I thought we would see a warm up going into sept over the weekend but by the looks of the 18z gfs it doesn't look like anything to get excited about. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Even if there's a retrograding WAR, the Below Average Tropical activity may be difficult to break, unless the active WAR relaxes the wind shear for a large portion of the Western Atlantic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 0z 4k has a second line of strong storms coming through around 0z tomorrow - It also clears us out after the initial rain (If we could just speed things up by a few hours we could be in good shape) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Even if there's a retrograding WAR, the Below Average Tropical activity may be difficult to break, unless the active WAR relaxes the wind shear for a large portion of the Western Atlantic Ocean. The periods of the intense SAL crossing the Atlantic has been a stifling factor as well. There also has been decreased instability in the TNA as a whole. We'll see what happens and what changes in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY408 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TODAY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179-132200-/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.A.0007.130813T1000Z-130813T2200Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-408 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...INCLUDING THEFOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...FAIRFIELD AND NEWHAVEN COUNTIES. IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...BERGEN...ESSEX...HUDSON...PASSAIC AND UNION COUNTIES. IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...ALL FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...ROCKLAND...WESTCHESTER...NASSAU AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES.* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.* LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ANDITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL ACT ON AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ANDUNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITHLOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF OVER 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIESTCELLS. THIS RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER A SHORT PERIOD OFTIME...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND CAUSEFLASH FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN...LOW LYING AND POORDRAINAGE AREAS.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN AND NEARTHE WATCH AREA THAT LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS AVERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ANDBE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Just over a 1/2" of rain here in freehold, .26" in the last 6 min.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Some nice rotation with those cells over central Jers. Finally some steady moderate rain on the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 13, 2013 Author Share Posted August 13, 2013 This may be the first time at Newark with no 90 degree readings August 1-20 since 1996. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-159AB9F6-F53B-44E0-93C9-3BEA822CB832.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Some nice rotation with those cells over central Jers. Finally some steady moderate rain on the South Shore. apparently a tornado down in manahawkin nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 This may be the first time at Newark with no 90 degree readings August 1-20 since 1996. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS-159AB9F6-F53B-44E0-93C9-3BEA822CB832.pdf And there's a good chance it may not hit 90 this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Looks like we could see some sun starting at about 1pm in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Any threat later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Any threat later today? 4k and HRRR have some storms but I don't think they will be severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 And there's a good chance it may not hit 90 this month. Probably. Although the CFS says it will and yes I mean CFS, not GFS. The CFS thinks that it'll hit 92F by August 24th (my birthday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Any threat later today? There's very little instability to work with, so probably no more severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Picked up 0.93" this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 GFS doesn't have a drop of rain for the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Here's a gift from me to you. http://www.metcheck.com/WORLD/usa.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Only made it to 75 here so far after 0.74 in. of rain this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 Anyway to close out these mobile ads? Real annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow Posted August 13, 2013 Share Posted August 13, 2013 What are the chances of KNYC or any of the metro reporting stations hitting 59 tomorrow night? Gonna cool and dry out quick tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 What are the chances of KNYC or any of the metro reporting stations hitting 59 tomorrow night? Gonna cool and dry out quick tomorrow. There's a decent chance. I know it'll be in the mid to upper 50s here at Southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 The storm over Ogdensburg has some spin to it near the Morris/Passaic county line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 What are the chances of KNYC or any of the metro reporting stations hitting 59 tomorrow night? Gonna cool and dry out quick tomorrow.Thursday might have a better chance with lighter winds... The passage of the front will ensure a brisk NW flow that downslopes NYC significantly, so I don't see 50s tomorrow night. Thursday morning is a better shot in my opinion. This should be the most significant cool shot of the month with departures around -8F depending on how cold we get at night. Averages are starting to drop at Central Park and are no longer 85/70. Models have backed off the warmth now with a more modest West Atlantic Ridge but the breakdown of the PNA/western ridge pattern should bring hotter, drier air to the East. We haven't seen a "Sonoran" heat outbreak all summer as our positive departures were all from high humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 50's in NYC during August is getting harder to come by...the long term average minimum is 57 but recent years have a higher average... last 50's in August was 59 in 2011... year...min... 2011...59 2008...58 2007...56 2000...57 1999...59 1998...58 1994...57 1992...57 1990...58 from 1965 to 1986 the all time record August minimum was tied four times...1965 had two mornings with a 50 degree minimum temperature and 51 the third day...it was quite a cold snap for late August... 1965...50 1976...50 1982...50 1986...50 the early 60's had very cool August low temps... 1962...56 1963...53 1964...54 two consecutive days... 1965...50 two consecutive days... Newark's coolest August temps... 45 8/29/1982 47 8/31/1934 48 8/25/1940 48 8/29/1986 48 8/31/1976 49 8/30/1934 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 14, 2013 Share Posted August 14, 2013 Think this storm is gonna die quick...noticeably cooler and less humid out in front of it (at least the northern part of it in Rockland). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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