Late July Pattern Change - Wx Discussion

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's been a month since my morning low has dropped this low.  55F this AM. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

We'll see. Nothing really shows that now and it's also in la-la land. Just enjoy this weather like your lawn is.

My lawn liked the wet humid wx better . This wx really dries things out quickly. Hopefully the rain tomorrow night comes

[CoastalWx]

No it explains why it can get colder here at times than ORH which is surrounded by higher hills

Absolutely not lol.

[Baroclinic Zone]

My lawn liked the wet humid wx better . This wx really dries things out quickly. Hopefully the rain tomorrow night comes

Models look pretty good for rain on early Friday.

[N. OF PIKE]

I think those little towns offer the perfect retirement spot in a few years. I'd work on my own but it could easily be doable. My wife and felt good there and I'd probably pick up a 50% snow dividend over and above mby now.

If you were above 1500 ft i would say they ave at least 80 inches. What town were you in.

[Damage In Tolland]

Models look pretty good for rain on early Friday.

Most of it comes tomorrow night and out of here for Friday. At least out here

[Ginx snewx]

Weeklies are fairly cool.   Sure we'll see some more warm/humid days, but the best/worst (depending on perspective) is done.

Welcome finally to the bright side of life.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro ensembles essentially stick a fork in summer...pretty remarkable turnaround in the long range over the past 4-5 days. They tried fighting the WAR back west earlier, but now its just huge ridge over the west with a pretty established longwave trough over the east and no real Atlantic ridge.

 

We might have to wait ntil late August for another taste of heat...the clock is ticking though.

[N. OF PIKE]

I'm assuming you are talking about the Catskills, if not ignore me. If you want real snow get out of town up to 2000' or at least 1500. There are numerous days where the valleys are rain and it's snowing in the hills / mountains especially early and late season. And I'm not sure where in the Cat's you were but the northern areas hold the snow better than the southern area, but some don't like that.

I wonder if the northern catskills are somewhat of a snow lovers "secret spot" as they dont get much attention. Any coops out there at high elevation or i. E what do they ave at 2k there and are there spots w decent lake effect exposure, i'd think western adirondacks aoa 2k could really cash in on snows but maybe im wrong. I.e id like to learn more about n catskills and adirondacks snowfall climo!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Another stunner out here.  66/60 out here.  Bluebird day.

 

Hate to leave GC but unfortunately heading to Boston for services the next few days.  The State Trooper that's all over the Boston news stations today was my cousin.  Sad. 

[radarman]

Another stunner out here.  66/60 out here.  Bluebird day.

 

Hate to leave GC but unfortunately heading to Boston for services the next few days.  The State Trooper that's all over the Boston news stations today was my cousin.  Sad. 

 

Sorry Chris that's awful.

[Flying MXZ]

It seems the northern catskills are somewhat of a snow lovers "secret spot" as they dont get much attention. Any coops out there at high elevation or i. E what do they ave at 2k there and are there spots w decent lake effect exposure

I'm not sure about coops, but here is an albany snow map.  In reality the snowfall gradient is much more elevation dependent than shown here but it gives an idea. The northern areas can get some decent lake effect, but really nothing great.  I've gotten up to a foot (once), but big accums are rare.  A couple inches is very common in the right pattern, and a lot of people would get sick of shoveling it every morning but I love it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Another stunner out here.  66/60 out here.  Bluebird day.

 

Hate to leave GC but unfortunately heading to Boston for services the next few days.  The State Trooper that's all over the Boston news stations today was my cousin.  Sad. 

 

[snowman21]

Euro ensembles essentially stick a fork in summer...pretty remarkable turnaround in the long range over the past 4-5 days. They tried fighting the WAR back west earlier, but now its just huge ridge over the west with a pretty established longwave trough over the east and no real Atlantic ridge.

 

We might have to wait ntil late August for another taste of heat...the clock is ticking though.

August 1st is like March 1st. You can still get heatwaves like you can still get snowstorms in March, but by the middle of the month the probability starts to fall pretty fast as the seasonal transition accelerates. Here are all the heatwaves that began after 8/15 for our SNE stations:

 

                              ---HIGH TEMPS---   --------LOW TEMPS--------
ID    START/END DATE  #DAYS    AVG   MAX  >=93    AVG  MAX  MIN  >=65 >=70
---   ---------------------   ----------------   -------------------------
BDL   1973 08/27-09/04   9    94.4    98    7    68.7   73   63    8    5
BDL   1953 08/28-09/04   8    96.1   101    7    66.0   70   60    5    1
BDL   2010 08/29-09/02   5    95.4    97    5    63.0   69   56    3    0
BDL   1983 09/03-09/07   5    92.0    96    2    62.2   72   57    1    1
BDL   1948 08/25-08/29   5    96.4    99    5    69.4   72   66    5    3
BDL   1993 08/25-08/28   4    95.3    99    4    66.5   70   63    3    1
BDL   1947 08/23-08/26   4    91.5    93    2    65.8   69   64    3    0
BDL   1929 09/01-09/04   4    93.3    95    3    66.5   68   63    3    0
BDL   10 OTHERS          3

BDR   1953 08/28-09/02   6    95.2    99    5    67.5   68   66    6    0
BDR   2010 08/29-09/01   4    92.3    94    2    66.5   71   62    2    2
BDR   1948 08/26-08/29   4    96.5   100    4    73.8   75   72    4    4
BDR   2 OTHERS           3

BOS   2010 08/29-09/02   5    94.2    96    4    72.4   77   66    5    4
BOS   1948 08/25-08/29   5    97.2   100    4    75.6   79   71    5    5
BOS   1993 08/25-08/28   4    94.8    96    3    74.0   77   71    4    4
BOS   1973 08/28-08/31   4    94.0    99    3    73.3   78   68    4    3
BOS   1953 08/28-08/31   4    96.8    98    4    73.3   77   67    4    3
BOS   1947 08/23-08/26   4    93.3    96    2    70.3   73   68    4    2
BOS   1924 08/30-09/02   4    91.5    94    1    68.5   71   63    3    2
BOS   1915 09/14-09/17   4    92.8    94    2    70.0   76   59    3    3
BOS   9 OTHERS           3

ORH   1953 08/28-08/31   4    92.3    93    3    68.5   71   63    3    3
ORH   1948 08/25-08/28   4    94.3    98    3    73.8   77   67    4    3
ORH   6 OTHERS           3

PVD   2010 08/29-09/02   5    93.0    95    4    67.4   71   62    4    2
PVD   1983 09/03-09/07   5    93.0    96    2    68.2   74   61    3    3
PVD   1948 08/25-08/29   5    95.6   100    4    73.8   76   70    5    5
PVD   1993 08/25-08/28   4    94.0    95    3    68.5   71   66    4    1
PVD   1973 08/29-09/01   4    92.5    94    2    69.3   73   65    4    2
PVD   1953 08/28-08/31   4    94.8    96    4    68.5   70   65    4    2
PVD   6 OTHERS           3

[TalcottWx]

Beautiful day here. Found a weather station that I didn't even know existed over here too.

[CoastalWx]

Mean the 10s and 20s had some hot periods too. 

[tamarack]

Euro ensembles essentially stick a fork in summer...pretty remarkable turnaround in the long range over the past 4-5 days. They tried fighting the WAR back west earlier, but now its just huge ridge over the west with a pretty established longwave trough over the east and no real Atlantic ridge.

 

We might have to wait ntil late August for another taste of heat...the clock is ticking though.

 

Odds are lowering fast, but the most recent heat wave recorded at Farmington COOP (In fact, the only one in the past 10 years) was Aug 31-Sep 3, 2010.  Ended with the wet remains of "Earl".

 

Edit:  In 120 yr records, Farmington has recorded 91 heat waves, 27 of them in Aug-Sep.  However, in the 53 yr 1960-on, only 6 heat waves for Aug-Sep.  (Only 18 in total for those years, so the late summer share has remained steady, but the overall occurrence of heat waves has dropped way down.  I believe some of that is due to the earlier observations being taken in a different and warmer part of town, but I have no info on siting history.)

[CT Rain]

If we can generate about 1000 j/kg of sb CAPE tomorrow there is a low end tornado threat. Hodographs look decent and LCLs are quite low. 

[Damage In Tolland]

If we can generate about 1000 j/kg of sb CAPE tomorrow there is a low end tornado threat. Hodographs look decent and LCLs are quite low.

But isn't tomorrow dry until evening/dark overall?

[ORH_wxman]

Odds are lowering fast, but the most recent heat wave recorded at Farmington COOP (In fact, the only one in the past 10 years) was Aug 31-Sep 3, 2010.  Ended with the wet remains of "Earl".

 

 

Yeah we can still get some good heat in late Aug/early Sept...but its def harder. 2010 was the first time we had one that good in years.

[CT Rain]

But isn't tomorrow dry until evening/dark overall?

 

Think showers overspread the state mid/late afternoon.

[CT Rain]

BTW - BDL will shatter their warmest month on record at 77.9F - old #1 was 77.1F. 

[Ginx snewx]

Bottle today

[CoastalWx]

BTW - BDL will shatter their warmest month on record at 77.9F - old #1 was 77.1F. 

 

Boot leg overnight lows.

[Damage In Tolland]

Think showers overspread the state mid/late afternoon.

Hopefully we are unstable enough beforehand

[Ginx snewx]

BTW - BDL will shatter their warmest month on record at 77.9F - old #1 was 77.1F.

nice glad it happened but happier its ovah. Warmest summer ever cancel?

[N. OF PIKE]

Boot leg overnight lows.

Lol

[Damage In Tolland]

Boot leg overnight lows.

Sure they played a big role but they had like 12 days over 90. We in N CT just lived thru the hottest month in our states history. It's a month I will personally always remember with fondness . We certainly have changed the pattern now, no doubt about it

[CoastalWx]

Think showers overspread the state mid/late afternoon.

 

Almost looks like NJ/NYC have that look for some sort of spinner possible...right along and ahead of the weak low developing. Maybe CT is it comes in faster.

[tamarack]

Yeah we can still get some good heat in late Aug/early Sept...but its def harder. 2010 was the first time we had one that good in years.

 

Farmington also had one Sep 8-10, 2002, but that was with modest dews, while the 2010 spell was all swamp.  (And those represent all the September heat wave action since 1960.)