Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 nice tone. Relax Phil -- Deal with it is pretty benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 finally a bit of sea breeze here today, not bad at all 81/68 at UUU at noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Ah, I don't buy this at all. --- then your saying what's the point, actually, whether you realize it or not; because this statement of your is obfuscating the "pattern" and burying into the background seasonal expectation. Sorry, there is an identifiable pattern here. And I do not believe I am being as subjective, as in an "awful lot of". In fact, urging proceeding with caution after flagging numerous facts, is tantamount to objectivity. We'll agree to disagree. Its fine. You consider a different height anomaly pattern that lasts for 10-14 days not to be a pattern change on the condition we return to the previous regime. I do. You're working on a lot longer timescales than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Ah, I don't buy this at all. --- then your saying what's the point, actually, whether you realize it or not; because this statement of your is obfuscating the "pattern" and burying into the background seasonal expectation. Sorry, there is an identifiable pattern here. And I do not believe I am being as subjective, as in an "awful lot of". In fact, urging proceeding with caution after flagging numerous facts, is tantamount to objectivity. can you elaborate on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Chamber of Commerce weather next week like we are used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 We'll agree to disagree. Its fine. You consider a different height anomaly pattern that lasts for 10-14 days not to be a pattern change on the condition we return to the previous regime. I do. You're working on a lot longer timescales than me. This is true ... but, I think that is more important for identifying pattern changing periods. I mean, think about this; if we want to invoke climo: there is a reason why the climatology for pattern residence is 45 days. This all began 25 days ago... I mean we are half way through. That' just the statistical canvas, granted -- patterns can have variable residence, so there's no guarantee either way, but if the average come out at long time scales...heh. We'll see. I will acquiesce to this degree: Yes yes yes, the pattern is altering inside a 1 week time span, enough to recess temps and DP for a time probably not extending much beyond that week, prior to the background larger term resident pattern reasserting its dominance, and usurping that shorter duration recess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 can you elaborate on this? I already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Make trough not WAR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I consider a 7-10 day period of lower heights and the Bermuda high 1000 miles NE a change from what regime we had previously. Lets compare the SD temp and height wise period for July 1-21 and July 22 to August 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 No no no. Look... some folks are clearing confusing sensible weather difference to pattern changes. I explained this yesterday, and no one seemed to want to consider it, just argue. Okay, believe what you guys want, but the PATTERN that we are in, allows for these sensible weather differentials over periods...and that overall behavior has persisted for over 3 weeks now. Another great post. Agreed! 1-2 days of NW flow and then a return to swamp day 3 and beyond does not a pattern change make Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Another great post. Agreed! you, Tip and LL...always in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 you, Tip and LL...always in agreement. Well until the winter October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 you, Tip and LL...always in agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Make trough not WARWAR...What is it good for?Absolutely nuthin'. Say it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 If Kevin agrees with you, you may want to rethink your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Well until the winter October. LOL, and then his thermometer goes back to being similar to Norfolk CT. Just another amazing thermodynamic accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 If Kevin agrees with you, you may want to rethink your opinion.When we get a sustainable change to dry NW flow and cool temps of course ill be on board for a pattern change . Unfortunately a 2 day reprieve from wet moist and high dews then back to moist and high dews isn't sustainable right now. The change is no more high heat next week. But that's not a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I can not wait until the first day after the pattern change with high dews for Kev to say AIT. ITS inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 #14 in the books. 92/68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I believe BOS is a lock for 90 today. Seaport Hotel practically there and a good bellwether. a stones throw from Logan.. kinda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 #14 in the books. 92/68 I busted. Oh well, did not think they could do it but did they ever. Still 90 at TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Folks up here (general public) are already convinced the pattern changed....it hasn't rained in 5 days which is our longest stretch since May 1st. After rain on 50 out of 60 days, including 19 of 20 days and 17 in a row (now *thats* a pattern with two months straight of 80% POPs), we have 5 days of dryness and everyone is convinced the moon changed direction or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 When we get a sustainable change to dry NW flow and cool temps of course ill be on board for a pattern change . Unfortunately a 2 day reprieve from wet moist and high dews then back to moist and high dews isn't sustainable right now. The change is no more high heat next week. But that's not a pattern change.I will ask you again since you ignored me last time. With a trough over us, the Midwest ridge father West and the Bermuda High way NE of its current location, which is opposite from the last three weeks what makes you think it is the same pattern? If this were winter you would see a greater temp difference but it's not so instead we see a slightly cooler regime, wetter and normal to slightly below normal temps. If you are suggesting the dew point is the only measure of determining a pattern change then I do not know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 If Kevin agrees with you, you may want to rethink your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 #14 in the books. 92/68 Well, cpick, Bob, and I were wrong lol. Should've stuck with my gut instinct. NAM looking good right now. GFS low-balled it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 shaking....... ..NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST TODAY OVER REGION...ALONG WITH LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INVOF SHALLOW WARM FRONT IN NRN/ERN ME. SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...AND WAA TOGETHER MAY INITIATE SCTD TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ME AND NH THIS AFTN...WHERE BUOYANCY AND 30+ KT WNWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL. LATER TODAY...ESE ACCELERATION OF QUE COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY YIELD A BAND OF ADDITIONAL STORMS OVER SRN QUE AND THE ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD APPROACH THE U.S. BORDER LATE IN THE AFTN...WITH OTHER STORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE/DEVELOP ESE INTO THE REGION AFTER DARK. GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WNWLY MID-LVL FLOW /WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40 KTS BY 00Z/ WILL PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK FOR SVR WIND...HAIL... AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. WHILE THE STORMS COULD PERSIST INTO LATE TNGT...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH DIURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING SWD EXTENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 When we get a sustainable change to dry NW flow and cool temps of course ill be on board for a pattern change . Unfortunately a 2 day reprieve from wet moist and high dews then back to moist and high dews isn't sustainable right now. The change is no more high heat next week. But that's not a pattern change. The pattern change you are looking for is called October. Didn't Zucker explain to you yesterday how NW flow is usually a warm flow this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 I will ask you again since you ignored me last time. With a trough over us, the Midwest ridge father West and the Bermuda High way NE of its current location, which is opposite from the last three weeks what makes you think it is the same pattern? If this were winter you would see a greater temp difference but it's not so instead we see a slightly cooler regime, wetter and normal to slightly below normal temps. If you are suggesting the dew point is the only measure of determining a pattern change then I do not know what to say.As has been stated numerous times by folks.. A pattern change is a complete regime change that is sustainable. An example for folks who have issues following. Most of June was ear marked with dry, cool NW flow with frequent fropas and rain then dry cool again. At the end of June we had a massive pattern change and regime that has gone to moist, humid and added in 2 heat waves. That will have sustained itself for just about a month. A temporary 1-2 day break and then back to wet, moist etc Isnt a sustainable change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 All mos with 97 tomorrow for BOS. Some crazy anomalies by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 17, 2013 Share Posted July 17, 2013 Make trough not WAR Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.