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Cut-Off Woes Next Few Days


CT Rain

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It seems like these heavy PWAT airmasses with warm process type rains just get underplayed on storm total precip.

 

We see it in almost every rain event in the summer. Model bias is pronounced in them and has been pretty well documented formally as well.

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Better than Sebago...

 

Or Moosehead...

 

Sandy at Mercer peaked a bit under 4,000 cfs late this morning, now at 3,350.  Flood stage is 14,000 but until it approaches 20K what gets flooded is mostly corn.  I'd guess it would take over 3" in 12 hr to push it up near 20K, but that 2" in 12 might blow out a few 1st and 2nd order stream crossings on steep land.

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Or Moosehead...

 

Sandy at Mercer peaked a bit under 4,000 cfs late this morning, now at 3,350.  Flood stage is 14,000 but until it approaches 20K what gets flooded is mostly corn.  I'd guess it would take over 3" in 12 hr to push it up near 20K, but that 2" in 12 might blow out a few 1st and 2nd order stream crossings on steep land.

 

Just getting word about the extent of flash flooding up north now. Lots of road washouts in Franklin County, and had to get creative to find numbers to call north of Eustis, but significant washouts leading to the lake camps up there.

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Just getting word about the extent of flash flooding up north now. Lots of road washouts in Franklin County, and had to get creative to find numbers to call north of Eustis, but significant washouts leading to the lake camps up there.

 

That was my guess in my post on the NNE thread.  Folks going to (or returning from) Jim Pond or King & Bartlett might have had more fun than they wanted.

 

Edit:  Did you try American Forest Management in Eustis?  Plum Creek manages considerable acres in that area as well.

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I drove to and from a meeting down in Westfield and went through the backdoor front in the process. Left here around 10 AM it was partly cloudy, warm and sticky with billowing cumulus at 77° F. Once I went over the crest at Mass Pike MM 20 it quickly dropped to 68° F with low stratus and drizzle on the east slope and into the CT River Valley. Westfield was still stuck in the murk when I left at 1 PM, but showed subtle signs of a little mixing.

 

Again, once I crossed over the crest on the way back I entered a warm, convective environment with dark thunderheads nearby. Although they have since faded out, things are still pretty well mixed and unstable here compared to the east slope. It's interesting the mesoscale variations these shallow BDFs can cause around here.

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I drove to and from a meeting down in Westfield and went through the backdoor front in the process. Left here around 10 AM it was partly cloudy, warm and sticky with billowing cumulus at 77° F. Once I went over the crest at Mass Pike MM 20 it quickly dropped to 68° F with low stratus and drizzle on the east slope and into the CT River Valley. Westfield was still stuck in the murk when I left at 1 PM, but showed subtle signs of a little mixing.

 

Again, once I crossed over the crest on the way back I entered a warm, convective environment with dark thunderheads nearby. Although they have since faded out, things are still pretty well mixed and unstable here compared to the east slope. It's interesting the mesoscale variations these shallow BDFs can cause around here.

 

one town over the sun been poking out for awhile getting warm and humid weird

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That was my guess in my post on the NNE thread.  Folks going to (or returning from) Jim Pond or King & Bartlett might have had more fun than they wanted.

 

Edit:  Did you try American Forest Management in Eustis?  Plum Creek manages considerable acres in that area as well.

 

You're good. Found a camp on King and Bartlett that led us to American Forest Mangement. Because these roads are still passable on one lane they don't report it to anybody higher up the chain than the town or manager of that road.

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I wonder if Dubois will make national news. They've probably has 5-7" of rain this hour and the terrain there is mountainous. That's an epic SOS cell there.

 

your wish is commanded Scoots 

 

All roads surrounding DuBois, PA are impassable due to flash flooding, reports emergency manager http://ow.ly/mrXou 

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