Modfan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Model QPF forecasts (both high res and globals) are very underwhelming tonight. Not buying them? How does HRRR look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 81/71 storms should fire soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Eastern Ct sitting at mid 60's, and just to the west in the 80's. Looks like western areas will see some storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 interesting set-up early next week with the surface HP building in to the north of us. euro drives the low level boundary into the Pike region. could really focus some rains along that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 You're good. Found a camp on King and Bartlett that led us to American Forest Mangement. Because these roads are still passable on one lane they don't report it to anybody higher up the chain than the town or manager of that road. Thanks. It's the advantage of having been a forester in Maine since 1976. I'd have to be totally incompetent to not have learned stuff about the backcountry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 EURO not as bad from the 2nd on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 cell in SW CT fairly slow moving and some new stuff trying to pop to its east...wonder if that's our first area in SNE to watch....like HFD to Waterbury to Litchfield triangle...somewhere in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I'm always fascinated by tiny cells that don't move an inch. Would love to be under this little guy over in VT. this storm doesnt move.gif Looks like its right over the Killington Peak area.... that's literally stalled on the crest (spine follows the county borders for the most part). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 cell in SW CT fairly slow moving and some new stuff trying to pop to its east...wonder if that's our first area in SNE to watch....like HFD to Waterbury to Litchfield triangle...somewhere in there?Yeah it's kind of arching to the NE and building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Yeah it's kind of arching to the NE and building yeah the concern may be a bit north...like from HFD to Litchfield area points N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Still not sure what evolves tonight with MCV. May see the best forcing scoot well northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 people thinking the weekend will be similar to today? Cloudy with occasional downpours? Just hoping to see some sun it will be July after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Still not sure what evolves tonight with MCV. May see the best forcing scoot well northwest. maybe western areas get skirted...then we have to wait for additional activity to come up from the south late tonight / tomorrow...then watch for next impulse rotating around from the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 maybe western areas get skirted...then we have to wait for additional activity to come up from the south late tonight / tomorrow...then watch for next impulse rotating around from the west? Yeah I could see that. Would like to see some convection going off of the Delmarva already though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 man that storm in connecticut is crawling hope is doesnt die before it gets here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Pouring buckets here, couple rumbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Nice storm North of HFD... can hear a few rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 sky is very dark to the south its crawling north Nice storm North of HFD... can hear a few rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Lame storm North of HFD... can hear a few rumbles of thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 alot of storms developing wonder if we see them come together and train over some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Collinsville Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 sky is very dark to the south its crawling north Just some downpours with very little cc lightning thunder. A knitting class might be more riveting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Model QPF forecasts (both high res and globals) are very underwhelming tonight. It doesn't "feel" like much of a flood thread, does it? Not the most scientific reasoning, no. But rad trends and satellite.... heh, this is pretty far west of here. 18z NAM (the most accurate model known to man...) under an inch of QPF for anywhere east of the Berks at this point -- 5th cycle of continued drying on that run. By the way, how about 84/74 for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 saw a few strikes to the south no rain here yet though.. Its gotten much cooler in the last 10 minutes Just some downpours with very little cc lightning thunder. A knitting class might be more riveting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It doesn't "feel" like much of a flood thread, does it? Not the most scientific reasoning, no. But rad trends and satellite.... heh, this is pretty far west of here. 18z NAM (the most accurate model known to man...) under an inch of QPF for anywhere east of the Berks at this point -- 5th cycle of continued drying on that run. By the way, how about 84/74 for Saturday. W. MA just drowning in potential rain right now. ; ) I for one am fine with a major qpf underperformance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 flash flood warning just west of HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Is that right along some boundary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It doesn't "feel" like much of a flood thread, does it? Not the most scientific reasoning, no. But rad trends and satellite.... heh, this is pretty far west of here. 18z NAM (the most accurate model known to man...) under an inch of QPF for anywhere east of the Berks at this point -- 5th cycle of continued drying on that run. By the way, how about 84/74 for Saturday. 18z NAM and GFS both line up pretty well with the best axis... on like an ALB to BTV vector. As far as New England, the threat seems to be up in this area... western NNE. The part of New England that seems to bore the majority of the posters on here, lol. Just like in a winter event, the best snowfalls for this area are from coastal storms that hit the BGM-ALB-BTV axis (ie Valentines Day, March 2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 iPhone went nuts flash flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 The 18z models seem to be pretty set on the axis of heavy rainfall. These are the 36 hour totals from NMM, NAM, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Is that right along some boundary? it may be...i haven't looked but it is definitely crawling...almost stalled out or back-building a bit now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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