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Cut-Off Woes Next Few Days


CT Rain

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Your screwed

 

Been hearing constant thunder now in town for a half hour or so from a tiny cell that has popped up over the ski resort.  Radar estimates are around 1" in the past hour directly over Mansfield and we aren't even close to the real deal moving in.  I have a feeling we are going to have some work-road washouts and interesting water-related issues at the ski resort.  We haven't had a big rock or landslide up there since two summers ago (I think it was 2011) when a rockslide threatened Route 108, with house size boulders snapping all large, mature trees in its path.

 

Should be interesting tomorrow morning.

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Been hearing constant thunder now in town for a half hour or so from a tiny cell that has popped up over the ski resort.  Radar estimates are around 1" in the past hour directly over Mansfield and we aren't even close to the real deal moving in.  I have a feeling we are going to have some work-road washouts and interesting water-related issues at the ski resort.  We haven't had a big rock or landslide up there since two summers ago (I think it was 2011) when a rockslide threatened Route 108, with house size boulders snapping all large, mature trees in its path.

 

Should be interesting tomorrow morning.

 

That sucks but it looks like you are going to pile it up up there, Stay safe

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The 21z SPC SREF is actually pretty bullish for tomorrow...has some decent svr probs and also generates some decent instability in the afternoon.  Obviously there are several questions and factors and we aren't going to get an outbreak but any convection will certainly have to be watched.  There was a tornado in PA earlier.  Also, we really have to see how far north the warm front goes...the SPC SREF really decreases helicity as the morning goes on and it looks like it gets the warm front pretty far north.

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The 21z SPC SREF is actually pretty bullish for tomorrow...has some decent svr probs and also generates some decent instability in the afternoon.  Obviously there are several questions and factors and we aren't going to get an outbreak but any convection will certainly have to be watched.  There was a tornado in PA earlier.  Also, we really have to see how far north the warm front goes...the SPC SREF really decreases helicity as the morning goes on and it looks like it gets the warm front pretty far north.

 

00z NAM actually shows a severe threat tomorrow as well. 

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Lightning has let up a bit....moderate rainfall....looks worse on radar

 

Fun anyways!  Took some video.

 

I was hoping to go to bed at 9 PM :axe: Then i saw mlb.com is doing the $5.6 million beat the streak in a day tomorrow...pick 57 players, if they all get a hit you get $5.6 million...then I worked on that, saw there were storms coming and here I am.  Have to get up at 4:30 tomorrow, and did today and yesterday, all with 4 hours of sleep the past two nights.

 

Coming down very hard again after letting up

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Waterfall outside....

 

Funny how isolated heavy rain/convection can be. On the north side of town near the Bloomfield line (really north of 44) there was 1.5-2.0" of rain earlier. As of right now (including the current downpour) I'm only at 0.45!

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Wow, look at these NYC area obs after that band went through -

 

CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY      74 72 93  CALM 29.61R FOG
LAGUARDIA APRT CLOUDY  75 71 87  S17G26 29.57F
KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 74   71     91  S18G28 29.60S
NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY  76 73 91  S16G25 29.56S
TETERBORO CLOUDY          76 74 93  S17G24 29.55F
WHITE PLAINS TSTM             72 70 93  SE16G22 29.59F VSB 1

 

Gusting to 25kts from the S.  And the DPs are rich!

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Looks like a severe day tomorrow. 

 

The latest trends are quite encouraging, especially with regards to the instability.  While lapse rates won't be impressive, the very high surface dewpoints and presence of very rich llvl moisture will make for an extremely buoyant llvl airmass and echance upward parcel acceleration.  

 

Both the NAM/GFS weaken the sfc low to 996mb, and of course we're in the warm sector, that's quite impressive.  Big question with regards to the tornado potential is do we see helicity values decrease?  NAM still has around 150 m2s2 which is sufficient enough, but if we are still seeing 200-250+ m2s2 of helicity watch out.

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