ORH_wxman Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 It seems like these heavy PWAT airmasses with warm process type rains just get underplayed on storm total precip. We see it in almost every rain event in the summer. Model bias is pronounced in them and has been pretty well documented formally as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Better than Sebago... Or Moosehead... Sandy at Mercer peaked a bit under 4,000 cfs late this morning, now at 3,350. Flood stage is 14,000 but until it approaches 20K what gets flooded is mostly corn. I'd guess it would take over 3" in 12 hr to push it up near 20K, but that 2" in 12 might blow out a few 1st and 2nd order stream crossings on steep land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Or Moosehead... Sandy at Mercer peaked a bit under 4,000 cfs late this morning, now at 3,350. Flood stage is 14,000 but until it approaches 20K what gets flooded is mostly corn. I'd guess it would take over 3" in 12 hr to push it up near 20K, but that 2" in 12 might blow out a few 1st and 2nd order stream crossings on steep land. Just getting word about the extent of flash flooding up north now. Lots of road washouts in Franklin County, and had to get creative to find numbers to call north of Eustis, but significant washouts leading to the lake camps up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Look out Long Island. Those storms just sitting there dumping inches and inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Man DUJ is getting beyond destroyed..esp just SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Man DUJ is getting beyond destroyed..esp just SE. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDUJ.html 12:56 report has only .46 at the airport so far. there is a flash flood warning up http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ017&warncounty=PAC033&local_place1=DuBois%2BPA&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning#.Ucx6-tK1Hag http://forecast.weather.gov/afm/PointClick.php?site=ctp&citySelect=41.1223:-78.7558 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDUJ.html 12:56 report has only .46 at the airport so far. the warnings and reports from that region suggest the area is getting hammered though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDUJ.html 12:56 report has only .46 at the airport so far. They were reporting heavy rain with thunder the two hours prior and showed nothing for precip...I'm guessing their gauge isn't very operable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Look out Long Island. Those storms just sitting there dumping inches and inches The highest radar-estimated rainfall I saw was 0.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Is that what we have to look forward to tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Just getting word about the extent of flash flooding up north now. Lots of road washouts in Franklin County, and had to get creative to find numbers to call north of Eustis, but significant washouts leading to the lake camps up there. That was my guess in my post on the NNE thread. Folks going to (or returning from) Jim Pond or King & Bartlett might have had more fun than they wanted. Edit: Did you try American Forest Management in Eustis? Plum Creek manages considerable acres in that area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SPC just issued Tornado Watches for portions of PA/MD/NJ/DE http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 tornado watch up but about 150 miles to far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 SPC just issued Tornado Watches for portions of PA/MD/NJ/DE http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0377.html SPC only has 2% tornado probs, so I'm surprised they put up a Tornado Watch for the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I drove to and from a meeting down in Westfield and went through the backdoor front in the process. Left here around 10 AM it was partly cloudy, warm and sticky with billowing cumulus at 77° F. Once I went over the crest at Mass Pike MM 20 it quickly dropped to 68° F with low stratus and drizzle on the east slope and into the CT River Valley. Westfield was still stuck in the murk when I left at 1 PM, but showed subtle signs of a little mixing. Again, once I crossed over the crest on the way back I entered a warm, convective environment with dark thunderheads nearby. Although they have since faded out, things are still pretty well mixed and unstable here compared to the east slope. It's interesting the mesoscale variations these shallow BDFs can cause around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I drove to and from a meeting down in Westfield and went through the backdoor front in the process. Left here around 10 AM it was partly cloudy, warm and sticky with billowing cumulus at 77° F. Once I went over the crest at Mass Pike MM 20 it quickly dropped to 68° F with low stratus and drizzle on the east slope and into the CT River Valley. Westfield was still stuck in the murk when I left at 1 PM, but showed subtle signs of a little mixing. Again, once I crossed over the crest on the way back I entered a warm, convective environment with dark thunderheads nearby. Although they have since faded out, things are still pretty well mixed and unstable here compared to the east slope. It's interesting the mesoscale variations these shallow BDFs can cause around here. one town over the sun been poking out for awhile getting warm and humid weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Seems muggy to me and im in ne mass 75 in wakefield, 65 ish boston and beverly ten miles south and east respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 one town over the sun been poking out for awhile getting warm and humid weird I think your area will start to mix out a bit more as the afternoon progresses, sending the BDF to the NE a bit. It won't take much sun to spark off some instability and downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 very difficult forecast period coming up. tough to time disturbances, convective processes, and a couple of boundaries moving around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 very difficult forecast period coming up. tough to time disturbances, convective processes, and a couple of boundaries moving around. Euro hoists the SOS again Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Euro hoists the SOS again Monday. Was the Euro still very wet or did it back off some like the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDUJ.html 12:56 report has only .46 at the airport so far. there is a flash flood warning up http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ017&warncounty=PAC033&local_place1=DuBois%2BPA&product1=Flash+Flood+Warning#.Ucx6-tK1Hag http://forecast.weather.gov/afm/PointClick.php?site=ctp&citySelect=41.1223:-78.7558 The airport is also NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 any severe threat tomorrow or weekend. Where would be most likely location for tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 That was my guess in my post on the NNE thread. Folks going to (or returning from) Jim Pond or King & Bartlett might have had more fun than they wanted. Edit: Did you try American Forest Management in Eustis? Plum Creek manages considerable acres in that area as well. You're good. Found a camp on King and Bartlett that led us to American Forest Mangement. Because these roads are still passable on one lane they don't report it to anybody higher up the chain than the town or manager of that road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I wonder if Dubois will make national news. They've probably has 5-7" of rain this hour and the terrain there is mountainous. That's an epic SOS cell there. your wish is commanded Scoots AccuWeather.com @breakingweather1m All roads surrounding DuBois, PA are impassable due to flash flooding, reports emergency manager http://ow.ly/mrXou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Man DXR area just getting dumped on with that stationary storm. Lets use some meteorology as well as modelolgy for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 Model QPF forecasts (both high res and globals) are very underwhelming tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I'm always fascinated by tiny cells that don't move an inch. Would love to be under this little guy over in VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 From NWS CTP: A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IS IN EFFECTFROM TROUTVILLE THROUGH DUBOIS AND TREASURE LAKE WHERE WATERRESCUES...EVACUATIONS AND ROAD CLOSURES ARE IN PROGRESS. ROUTESUS 322 AND 219 ARE CLOSED AT THEIR INTERSECTION.That's my old neck of the woods. A lot of mountains/hills in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 http://www.trafficland.com/city/SCE/camera/9431/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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