free_man Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z gfs with another miller B next Tuesday/Wednesday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z gfs with another miller B next Tuesday/Wednesday. lol Where this one had some convective feedback, that thing is pretty much entirely convectively created. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As long as it's out for the weekend I'm good with that. Your golf game probably has different feelings. It does, Have not played much this year because of other stuff going on, But have T times both Sat-Sun this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not for N-central Mass ... Here were the machine Euro numbers... .Barely .14" total at FIT FRI 00Z 14-JUN 14.8 8.0 1007 80 92 0.02 566 560 FRI 06Z 14-JUN 11.9 7.4 1006 90 54 0.03 564 558 FRI 12Z 14-JUN 12.0 6.7 1006 84 72 0.01 561 556 FRI 18Z 14-JUN 14.1 6.5 1008 85 51 0.06 561 555 SAT 00Z 15-JUN 14.5 8.8 1008 92 57 0.02 562 555 But, as I pointed out earlier, it's not as trusting as usual, because the Euro had well over an inch for that same location on the 00z, which means it's having the same issue with continuity on this thing I meant as a whole, especially for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Amazing differences due to development and location of conveciton this evening. Look at 18z Thursday at 12z vs 18z. Notice the difference in NNE where the 18z keeps this s/w stronger and tries to pump heights up a bit and allows the flow to buckle and bring the low north. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I meant as a whole, especially for this area. It had skimpier numbers regionally than it's own 00z run by a long shot -- I'm just more concerned with the continuity. And all guidance' are doing it for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Amazing differences due to development and location of conveciton this evening. Look at 18z Thursday at 12z vs 18z. Notice the difference in NNE where the 18z keeps this s/w stronger and tries to pump heights up a bit and allows the flow to buckle and bring the low north. 12z avn_30_500.gif 18z avn_24_500.gif Just looping the vorticity on the GFS is hilrious. How many convectively induced vort maxes can you find? Good luck to any model trying to figure out any of this. I think there's virtually no confidence in QPF forecasts at this juncture. An extremely low confidence forecast... between NBD and serious flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just looping the vorticity on the GFS is hilrious. How many convectively induced vort maxes can you find? Good luck to any model trying to figure out any of this. I think there's virtually no confidence in QPF forecasts at this juncture. An extremely low confidence forecast... between NBD and serious flooding. if we get a lot of rain flooding will be serious. This is the driveway across the street from me and my road 24 hours after the last drop . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just looping the vorticity on the GFS is hilrious. How many convectively induced vort maxes can you find? Good luck to any model trying to figure out any of this. I think there's virtually no confidence in QPF forecasts at this juncture. An extremely low confidence forecast... between NBD and serious flooding. Yeah no kidding. Almost a nowcast deal. I do agree that someone to the north of the low in the deformation area may get soaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yeah no kidding. Almost a nowcast deal. I do agree that someone to the north of the low in the deformation area may get soaked. There will be an area where, I think, elevated convection will really be able to get going that's forced in part by some of that deformation. All of this, of course, is dependent on upstream convective evolution and a I really have no idea what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yeah no kidding. Almost a nowcast deal. I do agree that someone to the north of the low in the deformation area may get soaked.clipper climo, always north of modeling which puts sne to snne in the xhairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Enjoy CT/RI to Bob. I'm going to go on a limb and say "Meh" for the Rt 2 corridor north. Not surprising, life boats for south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 clipper climo, always north of modeling which puts sne to snne in the xhairsLol not in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 clipper climo, always north of modeling which puts sne to snne in the xhairs This isn't really a clipper. This whole thing depends no huge areas of convection in the midwest/great lakes and how these evolve. The models are awful at predicting this kind of stuff so the exact solution is really, really uncertain. This isn't a situation where synoptic rules of thumb really are useful at all IMO. It's a pretty unusual setup and no model (even the Euro) will have any idea until tomorrow morning I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Lol not in June Yeah--pops up this way are only 70% for tomorrow-Friday. I guess those earlier qpf maps were a big phail for up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This isn't really a clipper. This whole thing depends no huge areas of convection in the midwest/great lakes and how these evolve. The models are awful at predicting this kind of stuff so the exact solution is really, really uncertain. This isn't a situation where synoptic rules of thumb really are useful at all IMO. It's a pretty unusual setup and no model (even the Euro) will have any idea until tomorrow morning I think.It won't surprise anyone if we get 4 inches nor will it surprise anyone if we get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 no games for me You could almost go fishin' in that one, Ginxy!! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It won't surprise anyone if we get 4 inches nor will it surprise anyone if we get nothing Yeah this is the type of event that the weather enterprise handles poorly. Potentially high impact and very low confidence even with a short lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Given the PWATS though and dewpoints into the 50's along with the lift, you really won't need tremendous amounts of moisture overthrown to produce some extremely heavy rainfall. This lift is more fall...even winterlike and we don't typically see PWATS or dews this excessive in these sorts of setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Lol not in JuneReally, you do not have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 It won't surprise anyone if we get 4 inches nor will it surprise anyone if we get nothingGood cover.man up and throw up some numbers, 1-3 with lollies of 4 from SNH south to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Bruins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Bruins 2-1 , could go either way ... Like this storm or garth after...ehh nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Bump north on the SREFs and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 LOL-all day everything went south, now it's back north.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 lol at the NAM and kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 either way it looks like SW ct and south coastal RI have best shot at flooding dumping rains. nam crushes those areas just long duration pouring rains, while E SNE from pike north takes a while to get precip in here, like their is confluence for first 12 hours or so. in the winter confluence is almost ALWAYS underdone and QPF overdone on NE side of precip, not sure if that works in june lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 NAM def coming back north. Won't be up for the Euro, but won't be surprised to see it bump back north. They are probably getting a bit better read on the convection potential nd its effects on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Really love how the pattern continues to repeat.... we've had these big rainers every like 3-5 days since Memorial Day weekend's rain/snow event. GFS brings the next one through on Wednesday...after Friday's washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 scott would u agree that models usually underestimate the effect of confluence on QPF totals on NE side /fringe of steady precip shield. I mean in winter i have seen this at least 75 percent of time if confluence is in play. i will see .50 precip on model w confluence in winter, it seems i'm lucky to get 1 inch 24 hours later. with that said is confluence really in play here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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