N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 gfs rollin ryan did u catch up to those storm in northern wyoming by any chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 GFS soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow GFS is north...still fairly quick but maybe a shade slower than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 scott would u agree that models usually underestimate the effect of confluence on QPF totals on NE side /fringe of steady precip shield. I mean in winter i have seen this at least 75 percent of time if confluence is in play. i will see .50 precip on model w confluence in winter, it seems i'm lucky to get 1 inch 24 hours later. with that said is confluence really in play here? I mean there is some confluence, but the real issue here is the strength of the s/w moving into the MA and what if any effect convection and convective s/w's will do. As far as confluence goes, we know that many times the precip shield in winter goes from S+ to flurries in about 15-20 miles when there is strong confluence. A model may not be able to handle that well because of its resolution, but they are getting better with horizontal resolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I mean there is some confluence, but the real issue here is the strength of the s/w moving into the MA and what if any effect convection and convective s/w's will do. As far as confluence goes, we know that many times the precip shield in winter goes from S+ to flurries in about 15-20 miles when there is strong confluence. A model may not be able to handle that well because of its resolution, but they are getting better with horizontal resolution. yes thats exactly what i'm talking about. i didn't realize they were getting better because they still seem to be awful wrt to qpf on NE side of precip shield in confluence situations 24-30 hrs out, not sure if that is in play here for Bos metro. But if it was winter i would be preparing to smoke cirrus while SW ct gets the national guard ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 yes thats exactly what i'm talking about. i didn't realize they were getting better because they still seem to be awful wrt to qpf on NE side of precip shield in confluence situations 24-30 hrs out, not sure if that is in play here for Bos metro. But if it was winter i would be preparing to smoke cirrus while SW ct gets the national guard ready. Usually it's one of those things where if we have strong confluence and the QPF gradient is really strong, than those who are near the gradient need to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well at least tomorrow afternoon turns nice and sunny..silver lining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How are we looking, no big deal or serious flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 BOX is tossing the NAM's heavy qpf. And, unlike the NAM (particularly the 06z run), they're calling for a 'South of the Pike" deal. That was my take yesterday, but with the NAM coming in with so much and dropping heaivly from Albany through the southern VT/NH and south, my earlier call might be wrong. But, BOX is not bullish on northern zones. We have the flood watch up here, but today/tonights POPS are only at 80/80 on the point/click (70/90 on the zfp) Regardless of where the heaviest sets up, I think a bump to 100%would be warrented. But congrats CT per BOX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well at least tomorrow afternoon turns nice and sunny..silver liningThe upper level system moves right over your fanny Friday afternoon. It could be crappy for you most of the day.Decent shift north by the Euro op/en too so the GFS isn't off its rocker. Looks like WNE is under the gun for max amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 06Z GFS now says congrats Rick-SVT-SW NH/NW Mass. Any more movement north and PF will be washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like s coast gets nailed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Looks like s coast gets nailed again.Fairfield jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Fairfield jackpot? Best location in the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Best location in the nation. BSE in the BLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 06Z GFS now says congrats Rick-SVT-SW NH/NW Mass. Any more movement north and PF will be washed away. My basement would be thankful if the GFS verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 My basement would be thankful if the GFS verified. Good luck with that. BOX and Scooter say otherwise, having the southern areas take the brunt (I think that's what Scott's post suggests). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Best location in the nation. As long as it's a positive departure day ... that's all that matters. Beauty of a weekend upcoming afterwards (to counterbalance the D&G) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Next week looks nice.Shake this wretched pattern of the last 12 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Incoming..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Next week looks nice.Shake this wretched pattern of the last 12 days Bummer that I'll be missing it as I'll be in Iowa from Mon-Thur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Good luck with that. BOX and Scooter say otherwise, having the southern areas take the brunt (I think that's what Scott's post suggests). I was just commenting on radar. There may be another max zone where you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I was just commenting on radar. There may be another max zone where you are. Yes--that loop I posted is pretty impressive for the south coast and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nice coastal on the euro next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 We've lost June as a summer month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Should be an epic weekend. I'll be working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 We've lost June as a summer month June's the new October--with leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Scooter, does the convection in the MA taint this at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Scooter, does the convection in the MA taint this at all? It may affect it somewhat, but the same processes tht help generate precip in the winter are very much in tact and will aid in heavy rain across parts of this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I probably should comment less after I just wake up, because it looks like deformation nation may set up not too far from what the 06z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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