Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thats why folks leave the board exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 15z srefs way south . Off Delmarva You going with the SREFs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 You going with the SREFs?Im going with south trends yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Im going with south trends yes Over/Under 1.5" of rain here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Over/Under 1.5" of rain here?Way under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z NAM is stronger. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 <ctblizz>and there ya have it...as we thought. that's all we need to know. stay the course.</ctblizz> <wx hype>we toss.<wx hype> Thats why folks leave the board Did we finally get Kevin to admit HE is one of the reasons people leave the board???? What a breakthrough! As for this storm what an odd turn of events. Inherent uncertainty with convection... I'm guessing we still have a couple surprises with this one based on not only what happens to today's hell-derecho but tomorrow's stuff in the mid atlantic. Weird setup for June! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Happy flooding on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Did we finally get Kevin to admit HE is one of the reasons people leave the board???? What a breakthrough! As for this storm what an odd turn of events. Inherent uncertainty with convection... I'm guessing we still have a couple surprises with this one based on not only what happens to today's hell-derecho but tomorrow's stuff in the mid atlantic. Weird setup for June! we're getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18z NAM is a great example of why nobody should be living or dying off of one model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm tossing everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Did we finally get Kevin to admit HE is one of the reasons people leave the board???? What a breakthrough! As for this storm what an odd turn of events. Inherent uncertainty with convection... I'm guessing we still have a couple surprises with this one based on not only what happens to today's hell-derecho but tomorrow's stuff in the mid atlantic. Weird setup for June! Do we know of anyone who has left the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm tossing everything Even the KURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm tossing everything It's been that kind of day.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Do we know of anyone who has left the board? i was gone for quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18z NAM is a great example of why nobody should be living or dying off of one model suite. And no one has been. This is a great example/setup of why probabilistic forecasts are a good idea in general. Even with model agreement the setup is primed for #NWPFail. We have problems in the winter without monster clusters of deep moist convection just southwest of us... try it in the summer with 2 major severe wx outbreaks 24 hours prior modulating the flow, s/w strength, advective processes, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Do we know of anyone who has left the board? Thankfully some that did have returned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Way under I'm thinking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i was gone for quite a while.But if you are here, how did you leave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And no one has been. This is a great example/setup of why probabilistic forecasts are a good idea in general. Even with model agreement the setup is primed for #NWPFail. We have problems in the winter without monster clusters of deep moist convection just southwest of us... try it in the summer with 2 major severe wx outbreaks 24 hours prior modulating the flow, s/w strength, advective processes, etc. LOL - too much twitter? #gettingmixedup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Im going with south trends yes The SREFs stil soak you with nearly 1.5 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LMAO She goes nuts south of Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The SREFs stil soak you with nearly 1.5 inches of rain.And they had 3-4 is the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm tossing everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The SREFs stil soak you with nearly 1.5 inches of rain. Any other Over/Under guesses yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 And still coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LMAO She goes nuts south of Long Island Where's my qpf??????? Thank God it's not winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 But if you are here, how did you leave? Maybe you should throw down some numbers for BDL, PVD, and BOS. Man up and throw some rain totals down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Maybe you should throw down some numbers for BDL, PVD, and BOS. Man up and throw some rain totals down.Will you get me an on air appearance like we discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NAM would be bad. We don't need that much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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