forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I don't think the track looks bad... I was just wondering about whether some of the really excessive rainfall amounts (4"+) are able to make it north of NYC. Certainly possible, don't get me wrong, but big convection down south could do funky things to final QPF numbers.could the nam's faster timing be hindering convection which allows more rain to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 could the nam's faster timing be hindering convection which allows more rain to the north? I noticed the NAM looked weaker at H5 too which is probably why it had less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I noticed the NAM looked weaker at H5 too which is probably why it had less precip.it shows me barely getting an inch and i find that result hard to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I noticed the NAM looked weaker at H5 too which is probably why it had less precip. yeah it's weaker and also never cuts off. just keeps the whole trough progressive. but the nam sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah it's weaker and also never cuts off. just keeps the whole trough progressive. but the nam sucks. should say closes off. euro doesn't cut off either...but at least closes off aloft and slows the whole thing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 should say closes off. euro doesn't cut off either...but at least closes off aloft and slows the whole thing down. The NAM can show what it wants 48 hrs out..lol. I'm sure it will SNE 4-5" of rain on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The NAM can show what it wants 48 hrs out..lol. I'm sure it will SNE 4-5" of rain on the 18z run. it will go to that later today, I guarantee it. Good ol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The one thing I'm not sure about is how the convection that fires over the Mid Atlantic will influence this whole thing. Powerful convection may screw up some of the conveyorbelt processes and moisture transport into the storm for a period of time?It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out. The last system seemed to have trouble with the convection which probably helped cause a bit of a bust with QPF on the northern periphery. This has quite the potent mid level system progged though. The 00Z ec bumped a little north with the QPF thanks to better mid level processes. It wouldn't shock me to only get grazed imby though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Hey how was last night? Had a nice supercell in Wyoming that lined out into an impressive qlcs that we chased back to South Dakota. It was pretty sweet and the trip has been a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i'm not really sure what BOX means by this...thoughts? ONE OTHER ISSUE TO NOTE IS A STRONG E-NE LLJ WITH A MAGNITUDE OF50-NEAR 60 KT AT H92-H85. MIXING IS NOT GREAT AND THIS DIRECTIONIS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY IDEAL FOR STRONG WINDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i'm not really sure what BOX means by this...thoughts? ONE OTHER ISSUE TO NOTE IS A STRONG E-NE LLJ WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 50-NEAR 60 KT AT H92-H85. MIXING IS NOT GREAT AND THIS DIRECTION IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY IDEAL FOR STRONG WINDS I think def in the early summer/spring, that direction can be tough for higher winds because of the inversion with colder SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I read that too, but I think perhaps they meant this time of year. Funny thing is that the air on Friday will be chilly enough to support mixing from SSTs in the U50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12z RGEM is in the slow camp now. Storm is raging at 12z Friday morning over the whole region. It will definitely be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think def in the early summer/spring, that direction can be tough for higher winds because of the inversion with colder SSTs. huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12z RGEM is in the slow camp now. Storm is raging at 12z Friday morning over the whole region. It will definitely be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves. Check out the def band at H7. Classic. Wish this were January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Check out the def band at H7. Classic. Wish this were January. ORH/Dendrite Jackpot? I'd probably be sniffing the dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 12z RGEM is in the slow camp now. Storm is raging at 12z Friday morning over the whole region. It will definitely be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves.what's the rainfall distribution like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 majority of this falls between thurs 12z and fri 12z (w eastern sections seeing a bit more after 12z fri) at least according to the folks at hydro pred center pawcatuck protector is gonna need a bigger boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ORH/Dendrite Jackpot? I'd probably be sniffing the dryslot Just a nice overall H7 band across practically all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 huh. Early summer/late Spring has cooler SSTs than later summer/fall/early winter vs most of the airmasses above it, no? So it helps create an inversion. A lot of our systems this time of the year will have 900mb temps of like +10 to +14C or something. Put that on top of 48-50F SSTs and it has trouble mixing. In this setup though, as Scott said, it might be cold enough in the BL that the inversion really isn't there. I guess we'll have to see...but it looks like 900mb temps can get down to like +6 or +7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I read that too, but I think perhaps they meant this time of year. Funny thing is that the air on Friday will be chilly enough to support mixing from SSTs in the U50s. yeah. LOL at the GFS. wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah. LOL at the GFS. wtf. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like some conv issues perhaps. LOL, this run is weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah. LOL at the GFS. wtf. Has the storm system shifted north or south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 H5 is night and day with the strength of s/w's. Problem 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Has the storm system shifted north or south? Waay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Early summer/late Spring has cooler SSTs than later summer/fall/early winter vs most of the airmasses above it, no? So it helps create an inversion. A lot of our systems this time of the year will have 900mb temps of like +10 to +14C or something. Put that on top of 48-50F SSTs and it has trouble mixing. In this setup though, as Scott said, it might be cold enough in the BL that the inversion really isn't there. I guess we'll have to see...but it looks like 900mb temps can get down to like +6 or +7. oh yeah i know. it's just that i think the two issues have to sort of be separated. on the rare occasion that we get a summer system like this, we usually aren't feeding in mild air aloft on NE winds. it's usually colder than normal low level air coming in...so inherently it'll mix better. i guess they just meant in the big picture sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i imagine slide mountain in upper 30's w maybe some catpaws thrown in overnite thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like some conv issues perhaps. LOL, this run is weird. The storm sags like 100 miles SE between 30 and 36 hours. Weakens too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i imagine slide mountain in upper 30's w maybe some catpaws thrown in overnite thurs.I imagine a few of these being thrown your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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