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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I am friends with David Brown at WCVB. He has to work tomorrow morning. This morning he was so relived that the model consensus was OTS. He hates having to forecast when there is so much conflicting guidance. He's sleeping now since he has to be up early AM but he's going to s_ _ _ _ when he wakes up and looks at the models if this trend continues. So much on the line and you can look so stupid!

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Arnold214

Arnold214

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Gotta see some rather monumental changes in the gfs and ec...im not even totally sure how the nam got to this point this late in the game. All the players have been on the table for a couple of days now. Obv im

skeptical but we'll see. It would be nice to actually have a storm bust in our favor for once.

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nzucker

nzucker

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A lot more QPF this run for SE MA. Good call zuck.

I said through 24 hours....literacy FTW

Wow the RUC has accumulating snow all the way back to NYC.. even the NAM doesn't do that

Meh, it's the RUC and the NAM against the globals. That's like me fighting Mohammed Ali, just not an even match. If the GFS shows snow for Eastern New England, then I'll start to believe it. But the RUC and NAM suck in complex synoptic situations, and the NAM always has way too much QPF, especially in deformation bands.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Gotta see some rather monumental changes in the gfs and ec...im not even totally sure how the nam got to this point this late in the game. All the players have been on the table for a couple of days now. Obv im

skeptical but we'll see. It would be nice to actually have a storm bust in our favor for once.

Could it be the separation of the two s/w that were supposed to initially phase as modeled a couple days ago? Now that the southern s/w has scooted out of the way the northern s/w is allowed to did more.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

Gotta see some rather monumental changes in the gfs and ec...im not even totally sure how the nam got to this point this late in the game. All the players have been on the table for a couple of days now. Obv im

skeptical but we'll see. It would be nice to actually have a storm bust in our favor for once.

Exactly. I rather expect the GFS to throw a bucket of cold water on this fire. Hopefully it'll at least make a small step to the west if not one giant leap for NE.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Quick words of advice:

So far, little or no agreement from any other model.

Should the NAM be scoring a coup (Dec 2005) - also, in the other thread there is outlined physically why the NAM might be keying into westerly development. It is a mesoscale model with superior grid spacing and very accurate convective initialization schemes. Some of that processing would carry over into some scenarios where latent heat release into a system were anomalously high. One way to get that is in having 5-7 contours of thickness compression aligning NE off the NJ Coast; it is an indication for a very steep frontal slope and near up right centered UVV tapping into what is steadily an intensifying depiction of jet max arriving there. That would cause rapid cyclogenesis; I believe the presents yet in this run of convection complexes feedback is still playing havoc and interfering with this to some degree.

The trend should be taken away from this run. This is scary almost in that we have now plunged the western circulation center 12mb less that the 18z, and backed the QPF CCB wall with apparent overriding trowel almost to the coast - bodily on board the Cape. This cannot afford to trend any further are you got your selves a bona fide blizzard problem E of ASH-ORH

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Arnold214

Arnold214

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The question is, do we believe it? It seems the higher res meso models are decent ENE hits and the globals are pretty much OTS. With all of those 18z GEFS members NW of the 18z op I'd think the 00z GFS comes a bit NW. We shall see.

The gfs wl come west...but not to the extent of the nam. Thats my belief. It could even hold serve and we'll end up with a complete cluster**** again...but within 36 hours which is not usually the norm. Like i said...all players are already on the table so if the gfs and ec dont hammer at 00z you have to seriously question the nam in a big way.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Gotta see some rather monumental changes in the gfs and ec...im not even totally sure how the nam got to this point this late in the game. All the players have been on the table for a couple of days now. Obv im

skeptical but we'll see. It would be nice to actually have a storm bust in our favor for once.

Haha, you know ...that's a good point.

They do though from time to time... I have a list of about 5 events that way went beyond the scope of forecast impact. I think because collectively everyone is always after the biggest event imaginable given the parameters at hand, anything less carries some element of bust - even though fairness and reality would define things differently.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Quick words of advice:

So far, little or no agreement from any other model.

Should the NAM be scoring a coup (Dec 2005) - also, in the other thread there is outlined physically why the NAM might be keying into westerly development. It is a mesoscale model with superior grid spacing and very accurate convective initialization schemes. Some of that processing would carry over into some scenarios where latent heat release into a system were anomalously high. One way to get that is in having 5-7 contours of thickness compression aligning NE off the NJ Coast; it is an indication for a very steep frontal slope and near up right centered UVV tapping into what is steadily an intensifying depiction of jet max arriving there. That would cause rapid cyclogenesis; I believe the presents yet in this run of convection complexes feedback is still playing havoc and interfering with this to some degree.

The trend should be taken away from this run. This is scary almost in that we have now plunged the western circulation center 12mb less that the 18z, and backed the QPF CCB wall with apparent overriding trowel almost to the coast - bodily on board the Cape. This cannot afford to trend any further are you got your selves a bona fide blizzard problem E of ASH-ORH

John, the ironic thing, is that the NAM has trended back towards that 2 span run of the Euro where it stalled just E of BOS. Obviously not directly but I find it ironic.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

NAM looks like a 1-3" event for Cape Cod, RI, SE CT through 24. It's probably too far west though, but there could be some light accumulations in these areas. I still think an advisory level event is stretching it, however.

I said through 24 hours....literacy FTW

Well through 24 none of them have more than a dusting. Either you can't read a 24hr precip total, or you were projecting what you thought the model would show (I think we all know which you meant). It was pretty clear the s/w had trended stronger and sharper but you seem determined to be pessimistic about all SNE snow opportunities and it is affecting your judgment.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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The question is, do we believe it? It seems the higher res meso models are decent ENE hits and the globals are pretty much OTS. With all of those 18z GEFS members NW of the 18z op I'd think the 00z GFS comes a bit NW. We shall see.

I just got back in and saw the NAM...can't say im terribly shocked given the trend late this afternoon. But I also would not be surprised for one second if its blowing smoke up our azzes. We've seen it pull this crap before.

If the globals are still pretty much status quo tonight, then I'm probably not even going to pay attention to the NAM solution. I remember a few times its gotten our attention in the past couple winters this close in and failed and Ekster used to say something like "I almost considered deleting the NAM from my awips"

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