skierinvermont Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The question is, do we believe it? It seems the higher res meso models are decent ENE hits and the globals are pretty much OTS. With all of those 18z GEFS members NW of the 18z op I'd think the 00z GFS comes a bit NW. We shall see. Yep.. that is the question of the hour. My opinion is the 00z NAM is probably just going nuts, but the globals are missing some of the mesoscale stuff going on. 18z NAM might be reasonable compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well through 24 none of them have more than a dusting. Either you were totally wrong about the 1-3 through 24 or you were projecting what you thought the model would show. It was pretty clear the s/w had trended stronger and sharper, but it's not going to snow in Dobbs Ferry so it probably won't snow on the Cape either. Sorry I meant through 30....just had the wrong frame there. Apologies to Dendrite but it doesn't really matter because this storm is a no-go in my opinion. Since when do we use the NAM and RUC for synoptic forecasting against the higher scoring global models? I don't understand why I take so much crap in these threads; it's like saying it's not going to snow is a crime these days. People who call a spade a spade have become unwelcome on these boards as they continue to focus less on meteorology and more on weenieism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I just got back in and saw the NAM...can't say im terribly shocked given the trend late this afternoon. But I also would not be surprised for one second if its blowing smoke up our azzes. We've seen it pull this crap before. If the globals are still pretty much status quo tonight, then I'm probably not even going to pay attention to the NAM solution. I remember a few times its gotten our attention in the past couple winters this close in and failed and Ekster used to say something like "I almost considered deleting the NAM from my awips" Yeah, I'm really on the fence with this; though as I discussed, I think I see why the NAM is doing this - unfortunately, it doesn't make it wrong. e-gads! Also, the NAM coups about once ever 3 years it seems - perhaps it's time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah, I'm really on the fence with this; though as I discussed, I think I see why the NAM is doing this - unfortunately, it doesn't make it wrong. e-gads! Also, the NAM coups about once ever 3 years it seems - perhaps it's time. Can't remember the last one. The SREFs and GEFS to the northwest were a red flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sorry I meant through 30....just had the wrong frame there. Apologies to Dendrite but it doesn't really matter because this storm is a no-go in my opinion. Since when do we use the NAM and RUC for synoptic forecasting against the higher scoring global models? I don't understand why I take so much crap in these threads; it's like saying it's not going to snow is a crime these days. People who call a spade a spade have become unwelcome on these boards as they continue to focus less on meteorology and more on weenieism. You still going with your dusting -1" call for the Cape from an hour ago based on the globals then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If the globals are still pretty much status quo tonight, then I'm probably not even going to pay attention to the NAM solution. I remember a few times its gotten our attention in the past couple winters this close in and failed and Ekster used to say something like "I almost considered deleting the NAM from my awips" i actually did it for a week out of protest. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah, I'm really on the fence with this; though as I discussed, I think I see why the NAM is doing this - unfortunately, it doesn't make it wrong. e-gads! Also, the NAM coups about once ever 3 years it seems - perhaps it's time. I can see why its trying to do it too....I think I mentioned multiple times over the past couple of days how the vortmax was taking quite a favorable track for SNE (you mentioned it in your thread too earlier today)...it normally would produce a nice event here without all that convective interference to the southeast really mucking up our baroclinic zone. The question is just how much of the convection is being overplayed on the models...its definitely there in reality, but the models could be going too nuts with feedback from it. Given the lack of agreement from most of the other skilled guidance, I'm still inclined to say the NAM is bogus right now, but there's certainly reasons why it could be correct and still not done trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 21z SREF members...87hr total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 These threads are the balls. So many E.F.Huttons i.e.(PRO"S) in the house. Such a knowledge sharing experience regardless of outcome. I agree with this Don. For me it's the passion of discussing the models and what-ifs. The end result, at least to me , becomes secondary in importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow the RUC has accumulating snow all the way back to NYC.. even the NAM doesn't do that Accumulating in NYC????? lol Now we just need to move it north75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 You still going with your dusting -1" call for the Cape from an hour ago based on the globals then? Yup, maybe 1-3" for the Outer Cape and a dusting to 1" for the rest if they get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 i actually did it for a week out of protest. Lol I seem to recall that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 21z SREF members...87hr total QPF Eta5 is determined to score a coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yup, maybe 1-3" for the Outer Cape and a dusting to 1" for the rest if they get lucky. That's more than a dusting-1" for the cape, but OK. Meanwhile, GFS ensemble mean is 3-6" BOS 6-10" cape, 2-4 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Eta5 is determined to score a coup I'll take that one, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like nada for Dobbs Ferry. You say that as if it's not expected. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Clown maps are cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's more than a dusting-1" for the cape, but OK. Meanwhile, GFS ensemble mean is 3-6" BOS 6-10" cape, 2-4 here. I'm sticking with my call of "Couple Inches?" for Cape Cod and extreme SE Mass lol Had that last night and kept it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I seem to recall that. i just think that modeling on the scale of the nam is not the best thing this day and age...there are somany things on the mesoscale that happen that are beyond the scope of the science at present day. It just makes for some pretty bad outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I just got back in and saw the NAM...can't say im terribly shocked given the trend late this afternoon. But I also would not be surprised for one second if its blowing smoke up our azzes. We've seen it pull this crap before. If the globals are still pretty much status quo tonight, then I'm probably not even going to pay attention to the NAM solution. I remember a few times its gotten our attention in the past couple winters this close in and failed and Ekster used to say something like "I almost considered deleting the NAM from my awips" True that the NAM often has one or two runs like this late in the game. I remember March 1-2, 2009, the 18z NAM the night before buried New England under widespread 1' to 2'. There was no agreement, and then the 00z run took it all away. But because it's happening within 24 hours, no one can help but consider it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 i just think that modeling on the scale of the nam is not the best thing this day and age...there are so many things on the mesoscale that happen that are beyond the scope of the science at present day. It just makes for some pretty bad outcomes. Not necessarily bad outcomes... just inaccurate ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think Kevin would seriously have a conniption fit if this verifies as modeled on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Is kev still swinging or did someone cut him down from the oak tree............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 i just think that modeling on the scale of the nam is not the best thing this day and age...there are so many things on the mesoscale that happen that are beyond the scope of the science at present day. It just makes for some pretty bad outcomes. No doubt. Chaos to the nth degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 True that the NAM often has one or two runs like this late in the game. I remember March 1-2, 2009, the 18z NAM the night before buried New England under widespread 1' to 2'. There was no agreement, and then the 00z run took it all away. But because it's happening within 24 hours, no one can help but consider it. That's what's got me glued right now. This is pegged to start tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 True that the NAM often has one or two runs like this late in the game. I remember March 1-2, 2009, the 18z NAM the night before buried New England under widespread 1' to 2'. There was no agreement, and then the 00z run took it all away. But because it's happening within 24 hours, no one can help but consider it. Haha, I remember that one. NAM had 15'' of paste here while the GFS had nada. We all know how that one turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 21z SREF members...87hr total QPF Give me ETA5 and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd have no hope in what the NAM's advertising if there wasn't some degree of support from GEFS and SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's what's got me glued right now. This is pegged to start tomorrow night. Would never be able trust this model again if it fails.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Clown maps are cool. That even gives Kevin 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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