cheetah440 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How old is she now? 10.5 months. Starting to walk. crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just not enough of a shift on the gfs at this point in the game. for what? My expectations are 1-3" right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So...GFS bringing the lobe of mstr with inverted trof down beyond 60 hours which would seem to encompass most of SNE. Amazingly, 1 day out and there isn't decent model consensus in the high resolution products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Still .25-.50" of QPF from the GFS is great right now. Let's see if the 12z run shows anything as well. I assume that is when any headlines would be issued given uncertainty with the NAM/GFS and rest of the global suite. When does the 00z CMC start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 10.5 months. Starting to walk. crazy Wow...that's early! Enjoy her first Christmas/New Years with her...and her 1st flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yeah, NW but nothing dramatic. You'd want it to have a sizable shift NW to get excited. Still the NAM MOS snow numbers are very impressive. Run the loop from 0 Z last night, huge changes, trend is our friend but will it matter? Sat Obs Radar time in the AM hope to get a piece of the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well...we'll have to wait and see. If one has to guess you'd say maybe lt snow and leave it at that. But those MET numbers are insane.......if MAV numbers come higher than the relatively paltry qpf that should be a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yeah, NW but nothing dramatic. You'd want it to have a sizable shift NW to get excited. Still the NAM MOS snow numbers are very impressive. The NAM is so juicy and far out on its own that the MET QPF/snow cats kinda have to be bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 for what? My expectations are 1-3" right now. Yeah, but my wishes are for 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow...that's early! Enjoy her first Christmas/New Years with her...and her 1st flakes! Thanks Jerry. Having a blast so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is so juicy and far out on its own that the MET QPF/snow cats kinda have to be bullish. Yes but we've seen the NAM be crazy bullish on QPF only followed by pathetic MET numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Run the loop from 0 Z last night, huge changes, trend is our friend but will it matter? Sat Obs Radar time in the AM hope to get a piece of the CCB Big changes but too little too late for us. Maybe an inch in SE CT if things break right but offs for that are low. Radar and satellite are going to look very impressive tomorrow afternoon but I think most of us will be left without much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Burbank just hedged. Mentioned the "more accurate" model for storms in this time frame bringing things a lot closer. Seemed a bit harried, almost frustrated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thanks Jerry. Having a blast so far. I have a 7 1/2 month old...definitely getting more fun as she develops a unique personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah, but my wishes are for 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I have a 7 1/2 month old...definitely getting more fun as she develops a unique personality. I've been meaning to ask you how it's going. Sounds like its good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 1-3" over the course of 60 hrs of light snow on the GFS!!! Precip shield is way diff on GFS vs NAM, gonna be fun to watch this develop over the next day+ to see which way things go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS may seem a little too far southeast with the H5 close off, almost trended towards the NAM with the H5 positioning. Models have trended towards a quicker close off of the H5 low. This trend is our friend. Our vort max near TN and moving ENE right now is closing in on the coastline. Could be a very close call when it comes to amplification of the H5 trough. Taunton had 00z NAM, mentioned possible changes if the 00z suite trends towards the NAM, we have seen the GFS trend closer to the NAM with the H5 pattern. Could be a sign of a big potential storm, at least for Cape Cod, MA. I am sure everyone has seen how close Cape Cod, MA gets to the maximum QPF of almost 3" of liquid, this is before the warm front approaches from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 1-3" over the course of 60 hrs of light snow on the GFS!!! chinese snow torture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 MAV: gournischt. We can presume the NAM is a big outlier or it's going to score it's most impressive coup in many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 00z H5 chart updated and it seems we have more appreciable shortwave ridging over the NW Atlantic and East Coast of the US developing. THis could allow the TN shortwave to amplify more and develop into a closed h5 trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MATCHING UP NICELY WITH CURRENT FORECAST. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO MODIFY HOURLY TEMPS/DEW PTS AND WINDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS. AS FOR SUN NGT AND MON...NEW 00Z NAM COMING IN AT THE MOMENT AND IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH DEVELOPING OFFSHORE CYCLONE. 00Z NAM HAS UP TO 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID QPF THRU 00Z TUE FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE AND OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS! MID LEVEL TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTHEAST OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK LATE SUN NGT AND MON...ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEAD PROJECTED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW ALSO TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BANDING POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. OBVIOUSLY WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND REVIEW ALL OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE POSSIBLY CHANGING THE FORECAST FOR SUN NGT AND MON. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 With the craziness of the model runs, the 06 run will have a driving rain storm on the cape and heavy snows in God's Country (yes--I am making a joke). I don't think so.lol You know that's what your secretly pulling for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nogaps brings qpf onto the Cape. NAM and Nogaps...not exactly a marriage made in heaven...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think NAM must be otl.....mets...help us if you have any idea..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think NAM must be otl.....mets...help us if you have any idea..... Clearly the JMA breaks the tie here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Christmas storm is progressing across the plains at 120 hours. That's our next chance at snow in so called "God's Country" unless we pull an inch or two from retro or LES. But at 156 hrs I think its about to be crushed by confluence... Nogaps brings qpf onto the Cape. NAM and Nogaps...not exactly a marriage made in heaven...lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think NAM must be otl.....mets...help us if you have any idea..... I remember last year the NAM scored well in some storms, so I am not sure what to think at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 x-mas day storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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