paweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 New Maps Very odd map. Not sure where they derive this from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 C'mon Chris....are you really going to be a party pooper for our area? I understand completely your cynicism over our immediate area getting the shaft again and again, but at least NWS has us both at 1 to 2"...which I believe is going to verify LOW....but that's all I am going to say about my feelings on this storm. Always remember that CAD situations tend to do well in the Cumberland Valley area. So...cheer up and think positive, bud! My point and click is a mix of snow and sleet up to an inch. CTP is almost always right. This year they've been damn near perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 00z NAM has a strong sleet signal for the UNV area with the heaviest precip falling during 800mb temperatures of 1C, but 900mb of -3.5 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kunv.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 latest full RAP run out to 1pm http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/from_jet/rap_jet/2013031723/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f18.png http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/from_jet/rap_jet/2013031723/t3/cref_t3sfc_f18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 00z NAM has a strong sleet signal for the UNV area with the heaviest precip falling during 800mb temperatures of 1C, but 900mb of -3.5 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kunv.txt The sleet is and always will be central PA's downfall. If the snow totals bust, you'll know it when the ping pings start hours before it's supposed to. 2/14/07 was one of the more wretched such events. Impossible to rule it out. The one hopefully saving grace is that the primary low is so far northwest that the worst of the WAA waits until a lot of it's over. But that's the one way I see it busting downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro looks like it has a bit more of a robust surge of 850 temps, esp in AOO and UNV (getting to 4.7ºC and 2.5ºC respectively for a frame). That doesn't look to affect front end snow before mixing occurs as bulk of QPF already will have been thru. 2m temps stayed at or a bit below freezing. MDT arguably had a pretty good front end dump by the looks of the text with a 6 hour frame of 0.51" with surface temps right at about freezing and 850s of -1.8ºC. Another 0.4" falls overnight Monday as likely liquid but quite close to maybe having some zr issues around there. MDT stays at 33ºF for that time period. I still tend to agree with more of a 1-2" event like CTP does for Harrisburg with less farther south and east, but I am still open to that region overachieving if we can get heavy precip there early on. I'd keep an eye on it down there as precip moves in later this morning. Also, this is a bit off the beaten path.. but the Euro was cold Friday morning. Dare I say potentially record cold in places. For 12z Friday morning the Euro printed out a 2m temp at UNV of -16.5ºC.. or 2ºF. FIG was even colder (pretty much 0ºF). Low temps like that would be pretty remarkable for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Euro looks like it has a bit more of a robust surge of 850 temps, esp in AOO and UNV (getting to 4.7ºC and 2.5ºC respectively for a frame). That doesn't look to affect front end snow before mixing occurs as bulk of QPF already will have been thru. 2m temps stayed at or a bit below freezing. MDT arguably had a pretty good front end dump by the looks of the text with a 6 hour frame of 0.51" with surface temps right at about freezing and 850s of -1.8ºC. Another 0.4" falls overnight Monday as likely liquid but quite close to maybe having some zr issues around there. MDT stays at 33ºF for that time period. I still tend to agree with more of a 1-2" event like CTP does for Harrisburg with less farther south and east, but I am still open to that region overachieving if we can get heavy precip there early on. I'd keep an eye on it down there as precip moves in later this morning. Also, this is a bit off the beaten path.. but the Euro was cold Friday morning. Dare I say potentially record cold in places. For 12z Friday morning the Euro printed out a 2m temp at UNV of -16.5ºC.. or 2ºF. FIG was even colder (pretty much 0ºF). Low temps like that would be pretty remarkable for this time of the year. Snow map on accuweather 6"+ for all of SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am getting pretty concerned with zr issues as modeling has been getting warmer aloft but staying cold at surface. 19.7 imby right now so all surfaces will be starting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Be interesting to see when the change occurs. But it looks like a lot of use will do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looking at 10z temps, most areas are 1-2 even 3 degrees above the 6z NAM for the same time. For the State College folks, I am thinking 2-4" snow followed by a good deal of sleet, and then mostly light rain as we get above freezing by 7-8pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Not sure I've even seen a flake here in Waynesboro yet. Tons of virga. Appears the new map that came out from NWS last night might not even verify for this area, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am going to say what we're all thinking...what is with that radar!!! lol...looks strung out. However, RAP runs get better as they go. Jmister we are at 19.2 is that above what we though...also dews are pretty low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alleghenies-16693 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Just started snowing here, east of Altoona. Video from Johnstown a while ago was impressive. DP was 20 before flakes appeared, air temp rose from 28 to 30 at onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am going to say what we're all thinking...what is with that radar!!! lol...looks strung out. However, RAP runs get better as they go. Jmister we are at 19.2 is that above what we though...also dews are pretty low too. Here are the 11z temperature obs. It looks like you are a good deal cooler than the IPT airport, so yeah I'd be more wary of ZR at your location. I was surprised to see UNV cooled slightly at 11z, whereas FIG warmed a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol 9z RAP goes nuts this evening for a large portion of PA... I still think it gets too warm by this time for it to get this extreme... http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/from_jet/rap_jet/2013031809/t3/acsnw_t3sfc_f18.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 I don't know...it doesn't look like snowy sky out there this morning. Jmster may have the right idea of only 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 28f with light snow currenty light dusting on grassy surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 my mom's school out in western PA just closed for the day... 2 hr delay would have been best... they have a little bit of freezing rain as a rain/snow/sleet mix is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 ugh whomever decided to schedule st. patrick's day for a sunday this year needs to be taken out behind the woodshed. I'm hoping for enough snow at MDT to cancel evening classes. Looks to be a low-impact event for most of the LSV, but next week's storm looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Radar is kind of blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am starting to get worried about a sleet storm here. Is there a website that I could look at a current sounding for UNV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 12z Observations: Now at more than 2F higher than the 6z NAM had UNV for this time. It's time to monitor observations of precip and that fancy new dual-pol radar feature to get an idea of changeover times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Radar might say all we need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am starting to get worried about a sleet storm here. Is there a website that I could look at a current sounding for UNV? No, unfortunately UNV does not do regular soundings although the met department will occasionally send one up. I was actually just thinking about this. What if some of us talked with the higher-ups in the department and tried organizing weather balloon launches for interesting events such as these border-line snow storms, and severe wx? I would be willing to talk to Paul Knight about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Radar is kind of blah Looks a bit unorganized, but plenty of moisture still. Agree that it's not looking like its gonna be much of a "thump" to start at least. Jmister, once precip begins evap cooling could get our temps closer to the NAM numbers, correct? No matter what, just gonna enjoy whatever we can get today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 No, unfortunately UNV does not do regular soundings although the met department will occasionally send one up. I was actually just thinking about this. What if some of us talked with the higher-ups in the department and tried organizing weather balloon launches for interesting events such as these border-line snow storms, and severe wx? I would be willing to talk to Paul Knight about it... Millersville does do it occasionally...especially with big storms. I don't think they're doing one today as it's a minor event for the LSV... Lots of dry air out there eating up the light precip around here. That second round moving into western PA looks really angry....if it holds together and temps hold steady, it could mean a blast of snow before changing to sleet->rain from the south to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 a good bit of lightning with that developing line of storms in southeastern ohio... about to push east into WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looks a bit unorganized, but plenty of moisture still. Agree that it's not looking like its gonna be much of a "thump" to start at least. Jmister, once precip begins evap cooling could get our temps closer to the NAM numbers, correct? No matter what, just gonna enjoy whatever we can get today. it could yes but doesnt look like heavy thump gets here until afternoon that would be heavy enough to saturate the air and bring temps down closer to wet bulb... by then too much warm air may get pulled in from the south where there currently is no precip with WV and western Virginia/MD currently dry and already warming and eastern VA/MD doing the same over next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Sun peaking out in Danville lol, precip might get here too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 First flakes spotted here! Just very light flurries atm but hoping it picks up quick. Good luck to all today and remember to enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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