jm1220 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I am starting to get worried about a sleet storm here. Is there a website that I could look at a current sounding for UNV? I think PIT is the nearest spot that does soundings. That can give you a good idea of how fast the warm air at 750-800mb is progressing, and it usually has repercussions for central PA as that's where it's coming from. The warming at that level is usually under forecasted, so sleet is definitely a concern. Always is in these kind of setups. Maybe freezing rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I think PIT is the nearest spot that does soundings. That can give you a good idea of how fast the warm air at 750-800mb is progressing, and it usually has repercussions for central PA as that's where it's coming from. The warming at that level is usually under forecasted, so sleet is definitely a concern. Always is in these kind of setups. Maybe freezing rain as well. Well Pitt is already reporting freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Well Pitt is already reporting freezing rain. with the southwesterly wind aloft causing the warm air advection... Pitt and other locations in southwest PA often see warming occur the fastest as the warm air builds to the west of the mountains. It will be slower over the mountains and into central PA but I still believe is probable to occur and hinder snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 i know this was brought up before, but ctp's snow map doesn't match the text forecast. areas like fulton and bedford are in warnings but map shows 1-2" with no or very little ice. even my county (adams) has an advisory but text reads up to 1" accum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 with the southwesterly wind aloft causing the warm air advection... Pitt and other locations in southwest PA often see warming occur the fastest as the warm air builds to the west of the mountains. It will be slower over the mountains and into central PA but I still believe is probable to occur and hinder snow totals Yep. Back home only in the 1-2 snow range. That fits climo than what they had before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Yeah, looking at these dewpoints, most areas should drop a few degrees at the surface when the real precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 13z obs. Dews are in black. Still a way to go to reach saturation in most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NWS Binghamton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Don't have a strong feeling with this one. Would have expected a much more robust radar. We have light snow falling but radar is sort of lame. Any thoughts from the pros on what you are seeing on the radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 managed 0.2" with first batch. i wont be skunked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I agree with Jamie radar is pretty anemic with dry patches everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I agree with Jamie radar is pretty anemic with dry patches everywhere. Things will likely stay patchy until the main batch of precip arrives from where it is now in Ohio. It looks like it's pushing east fairly quickly so it might start pushing in by noon or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Things will likely stay patchy until the main batch of precip arrives from where it is now in Ohio. It looks like it's pushing east fairly quickly so it might start pushing in by noon or so. HRRR seems to think we get all of our snow in a thump starting around 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Hazy sun peeking through the clouds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Sun out here...shouldnt help the temp situation. I think we get whats in ohio then that is our main show...prbly 2 inches or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Flizzard started up, let's see if we can get the air saturated at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Flizzard started up, let's see if we can get the air saturated at least Got a dusting here. At least the sun went away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 well, I think I was wrong. I thought an early morning thump with temps in the lower 30's was going to happen at MDT. Now with the heavier batch later we probably won't see any thump and possibly just plain rain in our region this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 from SPC mesoscale analysis (edit: link has since updated to 11am/15z on bottom): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/tadv/tadv.gif?1363618010860 <-- 850mb temperature advection 15Z http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s16/850mb/850mb.gif?1363618165855 <--850mb temp analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 what happens after that small line of precip comes through? is that it or am i missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 a couple schools around here are starting to submit early dismissals for the approaching weather... oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 CTP not backing down on their 4-6 call as of their latest update. Looks like it will really get cranking later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 a couple schools around here are starting to submit early dismissals for the approaching weather... oops rut roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 18, 2013 Author Share Posted March 18, 2013 Ukko has been yukko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 NAM still trolling Williamsport http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamsnow_NE024.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Must... not... look at NAM snow maps.... That's the highest totals it's showed yet for a lot of us... Last few frames of radar looks like the batch to our west is getting its act together and racing towards us quickly. Bring it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 a couple schools around here are starting to submit early dismissals for the approaching weather... oops They already shut down on a day it never even rained, what's a second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It seems to me the models over did the precipitation with this storm. They showed a heavier band coming through in the afternoon but seemed to show a more expansive precipitation field before the mega band plowed through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It feels much colder then the 31 i'm reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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