Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA - second half of March 2013


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Haha 76ºF was the high here on this date last year. What a monumental difference between this March and last March. 

 

I'm not going to get too carried away with accums with this complex setup. Obviously the north central looks to see the best snowfall and thus possible warning totals. The central and south counties in the ridge and valley region (as well as the Laurels) I think are still looking at advisory type amounts before mixing. This is like the 3rd or 4th storm i've seen this winter where the high res NAM snow total map on ewall for instance having a 12+ snowbomb on it's snowfall maps on especially the ridges of even Centre and Blair counties and widespread warning totals. It is certainly a borderline scenario though where if it ends up slightly colder and the column maintains a snow profile for more of the storm that we could see warning snows in places like UNV or AOO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Knock what off? I'm just getting excited for the upcoming rain event. I mean, you said it yourself, "these things are a pipedream", right?

 

I think you are the only one smoking the pipe. First off, it's not going to be rain for everyone, secondly everyone will start at wintry precip, and third even the rain part is not a "lot" of rain. It's like .25-.5" at most. Stop trolling. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

just weather prediction center now?

when did that change?

 

 To better reflect the diversity of our products and services, we have changed our name to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) and introduced a new web address,www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.   For more details, please read NOAA's announcement. Read WPC's Strategic Plan, which details WPC's 5-year plans for supporting the NWS goal of building a Weather-Ready Nation.  

Looks like March 5th

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Harrisburg area will need the early morning start and it be heavy... otherwise it will be similar to most other non early morning storms here this winter... not much of anything... I still have this feeling there will be more p-type issues with this than many are thinking with the strong south/southwesterly flow aloft

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Harrisburg area will need the early morning start and it be heavy... otherwise it will be similar to most other non early morning storms here this winter... not much of anything... I still have this feeling there will be more p-type issues with this than many are thinking with the strong south/southwesterly flow aloft

 

I_nw_r1_EST_2013031712_033.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I feel like CTP's cautious approach for central areas is pretty prudent with a late season storm like this. They just about nailed it yesterday for this area at least (if a little too conservative for State College area). Yesterday showed that snow doesn't have a problem accumulating in mid March here with half decent rates, so that's making me a little more optimistic though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Harrisburg area will need the early morning start and it be heavy... otherwise it will be similar to most other non early morning storms here this winter... not much of anything... I still have this feeling there will be more p-type issues with this than many are thinking with the strong south/southwesterly flow aloft

this is what I am talking about...

 

grid point closest to state college for 2 and 5 pm tomorrow:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F30_41.0000N_78.0000W.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F33_41.0000N_78.0000W.png

 

grid point between harrisburg and york same time period:

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F30_40.0000N_77.0000W.png

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013031712_F33_40.0000N_77.0000W.png

 

edit:

adding 18 and 21z 4 panel NAM map to show how it looks great at 850 and surface... but to take caution

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f30.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAPA_12z/f33.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rides the 0 line. No issues really. With the rates the NAM has that would be snow, then sleet and freezing rain toward the end. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...