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NortheastPAWx

Central PA - second half of March 2013

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I am not sure why people are so anti-snow for tomorrow here. There is a reasonable support for a quick moderate burst of snow for as far south as the PA turnpike tomorrow. Temperatures at the surface will be cold enough. Moisture associated in these WAA situations typically arrive earlier than expected and a bit farther ahead of the mid level warm layer. I would not rule out some 2-4in amounts as far south and east as the THV-RDG line.

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I love these events. No one expects anything and they crush. Just waiting to see everyone reporting moderate/heavy snow tomorrow. lol 

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I am not sure why people are so anti-snow for tomorrow here. There is a reasonable support for a quick moderate burst of snow for as far south as the PA turnpike tomorrow. Temperatures at the surface will be cold enough. Moisture associated in these WAA situations typically arrive earlier than expected and a bit farther ahead of the mid level warm layer. I would not rule out some 2-4in amounts as far south and east as the THV-RDG line.

no doubt temps at surface will be cold enough its the warmth at cloud level that I am concerned about... precip rates won't matter if cloud level temps are too warm for great snowflake formation... maybe I am just being cautious since temp profile is currently warmer than the march 6th event for here and that didn't pan out for MDT area... have just seen NAM be too cold with WAA occuring during event before

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I am not sure why people are so anti-snow for tomorrow here. There is a reasonable support for a quick moderate burst of snow for as far south as the PA turnpike tomorrow. Temperatures at the surface will be cold enough. Moisture associated in these WAA situations typically arrive earlier than expected and a bit farther ahead of the mid level warm layer. I would not rule out some 2-4in amounts as far south and east as the THV-RDG line.
We haven't had a storm pan out all year, no reason to think that changes. It isv37 at my casa now. Here is the point and click for me tomorrow:

MONDAY

Snow likely in the morning...then snow...rain...sleet and freezing rain in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Ice accumulation around a trace. Highs in the upper 30s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Monday Night

MONDAY NIGHT

Freezing rain. Rain and snow in the evening...then light rain with areas of drizzle after midnight. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

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PSU campus weather service just called for all rain tomorrow with a few flakes mixing in late  :lmao:

 

Gonna be some surprised people on campus tomorrow... most people don't even know there's a Winter Storm Watch, they're still complaining about the 3" yesterday!

Ha, I wonder what their reasoning for that is ... 

 

EDIT:  It looks like this forecast was issued on Friday, not today.  

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HBG will be lucky to see .5" of snow. Non-event here but the zr is always worrisome.

Agreed 100%. I had a trace in my garden yesterday and see no reason why this will add to my 7.8" total. I'm much more enthused to see what might happen around the 25th or so.

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based on my thoughts:

 

JST 4-6 with mixing/ice

AOO 3-5 with mixing/ice

UNV 3-5 with mixing/ice

Clearfield 3-5 with mixing/ice

IPT 2-4 with mixing

MDT/THV/LNS T-1 with mixing/rain

AVP 2-4

Clearfield 3-6 with mixing/ice

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Cold air has hung on pretty tough this year and in some cases, has even nullified "torches" earlier in the winter. All "rain" posts aside, I think the trend of cold air hanging on for dear life continues to play out. Toontown, State College, Clearfield are the big winners but I think MDT could eek out an inch or two.

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Works for me. .85" QPF in snow form . lol

 

Nothing wrong with a S Central PA jackpot in my book haha. With a couple inches of snow on the ground still a 2-4" event would be pretty cool this time of year.

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Nothing wrong with a S Central PA jackpot in my book haha. With a couple inches of snow on the ground still a 2-4" event would be pretty cool this time of year.

 

I like the way you think. haha 

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Quick ? for those who may know whats going on is Ipt in worse shape than unv. Is it less precip ir earlier changeover?

 

Less precip before it gets too warm. But, you should get over 3" before then. 

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I'm thinking 5-7" generally along I-99 including UNV and AOO, maybe spots to 8"-same for areas further west including FIG/DUJ. JST generally the same deal, 4-6" I'd say before going to sleet/ZR. 4-6" also for IPT and then 2-5" south from SEG to around Harrisburg. 1-3" southeast of there. There could be more if the front end comes in heavy right away-these can sometimes bust well and the airmass looks pretty cold and dry for now. 12z models seem to be trending slightly colder, which is typical of CAD scenarios where they catch on last-minute. The Euro from yesterday was probably overdone but I could see a nice surprise in store for some.

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It's getting there. 4-6" should be down into at least Fulton county and 3-4" over to Carlisle. 

 

StormTotalSnow.png

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Euro anyone

From what I read in the New England and NYC forums it's maybe a bit colder for those areas due to the primary low being further NW and the secondary tracking a bit SE of last run. It's good for you guys that the primary is so far NW, it would be a lot tougher to get much snow if it were tracking over NE Ohio or something. The warm advection doesn't look that strong until the precip is mostly done.

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