Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro anyone Euro looks better again up here. About 0.75" before changing over to sleet here in State College. Looks like maybe between 0.65" and 0.70" at IPT before a very brief (3-hr) window of >0C 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Map looks solid. Expand the 6-8 in Cameron county into Clearfield and Centre. I think warnings go out for the central mountain counties, northern tier and Laurels/Alleghenies counties. Advisories likely from IPT south along the Susquehanna and the ridge/valley counties like Juniata and Huntingdon, although they might get a good dumping also. The toughest call seems to be for places like Lewistown, Bedford and the south-central ridge and valley region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Who cares. lol. Using Euro within 24hrs? But it is decent. Euro within 24hrs is still the best model, IMO. The NAM sucks, always. SREFs aren't any better. The GFS isn't great. The HRRR sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Awesome thanks man just hope qpf is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm thinking 5-7" generally along I-99 including UNV and AOO, maybe spots to 8"-same for areas further west including FIG/DUJ. JST generally the same deal, 4-6" I'd say before going to sleet/ZR. 4-6" also for IPT and then 2-5" south from SEG to around Harrisburg. 1-3" southeast of there. There could be more if the front end comes in heavy right away-these can sometimes bust well and the airmass looks pretty cold and dry for now. 12z models seem to be trending slightly colder, which is typical of CAD scenarios where they catch on last-minute. The Euro from yesterday was probably overdone but I could see a nice surprise in store for some. This pretty much matches my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro within 24hrs is still the best model, IMO. The NAM sucks, always. SREFs aren't any better. The GFS isn't great. The HRRR sucks. I'd look at RAP, NAM and RGEM, GFS inside 24hrs than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro looks better again up here. About 0.75" before changing over to sleet here in State College. Looks like maybe between 0.65" and 0.70" at IPT before a very brief (3-hr) window of >0C 850s. Heck how about Ship? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'd look at RAP, NAM and RGEM, GFS inside 24hrs than anything else. Haha, well we'll agree to disagree on all of the above, except maybe the RGEM. I'd probably trust the following models most at around 24 hrs out: 1. Euro 2. UKMET 3. RGEM 4. GFS/NAM blend 5. Anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Heck how about Ship? Guesstimating about 0.35"-0.40" before 850s warm above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Haha, well we'll agree to disagree on all of the above, except maybe the RGEM. I'd probably trust the following models most at around 24 hrs out: 1. Euro 2. UKMET 3. RGEM 4. GFS/NAM blend 5. Anything else. Euro is a medium range model though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Euro is a medium range model though Yes. Which makes it that much more disappointing to me that it (again, in my opinion ) performs better than the models that are supposed to do well within 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Guesstimating about 0.35"-0.40" before 850s warm above 0C. Not bad so about 3-5". Taking rest of models i'd say 4-6" looks good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Warnings and Advs now in place. Warnings 4-6", Adv 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yes. Which makes it that much more disappointing to me that it (again, in my opinion ) performs better than the models that are supposed to do well within 48 hrs. lol yea... really makes the american models look bad when a medium range model can outperform a near range one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 EAS message made it seem as if icing may be more of a concern than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Just because one event or multiple systems did not pan out for snow accumulations for a region, it has no baring on what will happen with a future storm. That reasoning has no statistical or scientific evidence to support any sort of forecast. I would somewhat disagree with this. while each storm is unique, patterns tend to develop which can lead to repetitive occurrences. 1 rule I've used which seems to work pretty well is to forecast the pattern until the pattern is broken. I'm not saying that this storm definitely won't produce snow in areas that haven't seen much so far this winter, but if you're in a marginal area with this one I would bet this is not the pattern breaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 We still have about 2" on the ground. Snow on snow day after St. Patty's Day is rather rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Heh, first time I've seen this in an NWS warning statement: ...POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET @NWSSTATECOLLEGE AND USE THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Final Call Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I really like this storm models are keeping the colder air in place longer. Could be a nice surprise for S CPA turnpike north 3-4" before changeover. Largest snow for us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I personally don't know about the icing danger unless youre talking about terrain with deeper locked in cold. I find it hard to believe that freezing rain will be so prevalent with marginal low layer temps. If this was Jan, then maybe, but I just see this being white/ slushy. Nice map eastern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I would somewhat disagree with this. while each storm is unique, patterns tend to develop which can lead to repetitive occurrences. 1 rule I've used which seems to work pretty well is to forecast the pattern until the pattern is broken. I'm not saying that this storm definitely won't produce snow in areas that haven't seen much so far this winter, but if you're in a marginal area with this one I would bet this is not the pattern breaker. I agree with this. Not saying we can't see snow down this way tomorrow, but I'd wager a much better chance on getting something significant from a large dynamic coastal to get it done down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm forecasting for Weather World again tomorrow, but thankfully the snow should start before air time so it should be an easier forecast. Here is the latest RPM for those interested... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I personally don't know about the icing danger unless youre talking about terrain with deeper locked in cold. I find it hard to believe that freezing rain will be so prevalent with marginal low layer temps. If this was Jan, then maybe, but I just see this being white/ slushy. Nice map eastern! Thanks. I agree. With surface temps at 31-32 and the solar radiation I find it hard to believe the ice will be able to stick much without melting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm forecasting for Weather World again tomorrow, but thankfully the snow should start before air time so it should be an easier forecast. Here is the latest RPM for those interested... I've heard the RPM is a horrible horrible model. Any met can fill us in if that is true? From each storm so far I have seen it has been terrible. Had 17" for me for the March 6th storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I personally don't know about the icing danger unless youre talking about terrain with deeper locked in cold. I find it hard to believe that freezing rain will be so prevalent with marginal low layer temps. If this was Jan, then maybe, but I just see this being white/ slushy. Nice map eastern! I could see freezing rain being a threat somewhere-the NAM wants to warm up the mid-low levels such as 850mb before the surface, and the 32 deg line hangs out for quite some time in the mid Susq. valley and over to the ridges/valleys west of there, so there could be a zone where the cold is shallow enough for freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I've heard the RPM is a horrible horrible model. Any met can fill us in if that is true? From each storm so far I have seen it has been terrible. Had 17" for me for the March 6th storm. lol We use the RPM for our "Predictor" model. It's pretty good inside of 12 hours but has its faults (doesn't every model?)...about 24-48 hours out it gets funky and can go from very conservative to VERY aggressive from run to run. Past 48 hours it does a pretty good job again. Screwy little model. In this case, I think it's a bit over done on some amounts. That sun-angle is going to be a real potential bust-maker if you don't have some heavy rates or locked into the low-level cold air. I think a coating-1" is good for more of the LSQV with 1-3" from the I-81 north and 3-6 for Central PA up on north. Some ridges could pick up 8, but likely near I-99 or north of UNV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 I'm forecasting for Weather World again tomorrow, but thankfully the snow should start before air time so it should be an easier forecast. Here is the latest RPM for those interested... are you on air or behind the scenes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 and why is Erie out in the middle of the water. Was I sleeping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 oh wait. that's a decimal point. don't i feel stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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