canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Safe bet to take that 18z nam and divide in half and put that as your total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS moving in right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NWS predicting mixing issues for the LSV on Wednesday. I'm assuming they're citing the GFS/Euro for this call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NWS predicting mixing issues for the LSV on Wednesday. I'm assuming they're citing the GFS/Euro for this call. no idea where they are getting that though... all temp profiles i have seen for here are only warm very close to surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol easy guys I know Im not getting anything.We can watch ole Jimmy Cantore on TV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z GFS took a good step towards the NAM. Keep in mind the GFS is a global and low resolution compared to the NAM so its NEVER going to have the precip totals the NAM shows nor will it pick up on banding features that the NAM can, but in terms of low track, and the axis of precip they are pretty much in lock step. The big difference for the PA zones near the MD border is the NAM is picking up on a deform band that it develops in this area tomorrow. THe Euro and now GFS hint at this band also, but they focus more on the convective precip down closer to the low, so instead of the .25 the NAM is spitting out every 3 hours with that band parked along the mason dixon line, the globals are putting out .1. That is the difference between the .75 qpf on the globals and the 1.5" on the high resolution models. After seeing the "ghost" reflection of this band on both the euro and the 18z GFS I feel more confident or perhaps "hopefull" that the high resolution models are onto something here and are correctly placing the "death band" of snow we often see on the back edge as moisture convergence occurs banked up against the confluence. THis is often responsible for that second snowfall maximum we see in many KU storms. It's possible the globals cant see this features as well as the lower resolutions and the NAM is scoring a rare coup. The safe bet is the hedge between the two, but I wouldn't be shocked if the NAM, adjusted for its crazy wet bias, wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z GFS took a good step towards the NAM. Keep in mind the GFS is a global and low resolution compared to the NAM so its NEVER going to have the precip totals the NAM shows nor will it pick up on banding features that the NAM can, but in terms of low track, and the axis of precip they are pretty much in lock step. The big difference for the PA zones near the MD border is the NAM is picking up on a deform band that it develops in this area tomorrow. THe Euro and now GFS hint at this band also, but they focus more on the convective precip down closer to the low, so instead of the .25 the NAM is spitting out every 3 hours with that band parked along the mason dixon line, the globals are putting out .1. That is the difference between the .75 qpf on the globals and the 1.5" on the high resolution models. After seeing the "ghost" reflection of this band on both the euro and the 18z GFS I feel more confident or perhaps "hopefull" that the high resolution models are onto something here and are correctly placing the "death band" of snow we often see on the back edge as moisture convergence occurs banked up against the confluence. THis is often responsible for that second snowfall maximum we see in many KU storms. It's possible the globals cant see this features as well as the lower resolutions and the NAM is scoring a rare coup. The safe bet is the hedge between the two, but I wouldn't be shocked if the NAM, adjusted for its crazy wet bias, wins out. Again, thanks. You should post here more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So CTP really cut back totals. Shippensburg forecast is only 1-3 tonight and 2-4 tomorrow. Was 4-8 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Again, thanks. You should post here more often. I second this. Thanks for the analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 18z GFS took a good step towards the NAM. Keep in mind the GFS is a global and low resolution compared to the NAM so its NEVER going to have the precip totals the NAM shows nor will it pick up on banding features that the NAM can, but in terms of low track, and the axis of precip they are pretty much in lock step. The big difference for the PA zones near the MD border is the NAM is picking up on a deform band that it develops in this area tomorrow. THe Euro and now GFS hint at this band also, but they focus more on the convective precip down closer to the low, so instead of the .25 the NAM is spitting out every 3 hours with that band parked along the mason dixon line, the globals are putting out .1. That is the difference between the .75 qpf on the globals and the 1.5" on the high resolution models. After seeing the "ghost" reflection of this band on both the euro and the 18z GFS I feel more confident or perhaps "hopefull" that the high resolution models are onto something here and are correctly placing the "death band" of snow we often see on the back edge as moisture convergence occurs banked up against the confluence. THis is often responsible for that second snowfall maximum we see in many KU storms. It's possible the globals cant see this features as well as the lower resolutions and the NAM is scoring a rare coup. The safe bet is the hedge between the two, but I wouldn't be shocked if the NAM, adjusted for its crazy wet bias, wins out. Awesome...makes sense, too. Please keep posting here...really good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol pawatch we should meet over some brewskies sometime on me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 So CTP really cut back totals. Shippensburg forecast is only 1-3 tonight and 2-4 tomorrow. Was 4-8 tomorrow. 3-7 that is really cutting back. pretty much dropped the range by an inch. I think you guys see on average 6-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 3-7 that is really cutting back. pretty much dropped the range by an inch. I think you guys see on average 6-7" No we were at 6-11 total earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 No we were at 6-11 total earlier today OH....you should be fine. 6 plus I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I will add my 2 snowflakes worth for a guess. My totals are higher because I believe this "storm will overperform". Me (Lititz - a few miles north of Lancaster City): 16" - My hope is that my neighborhood gets stuck under an intense band of snow. JST: 9" AOO: 6" UNV: 3" MDT: 8" THV: 10" LNS: 9" Somerset: 15" IPT: 15 snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where is this 3 to 4 coming from for unv? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 My Guesses: Me: 4" NW Cambria County ( 30 miles North of JST) JST: 8" AOO: 6" UNV: 2" FIG : .75" MDT: 5" THV: 8.5" LNS: 6" Somerset: 12" Made some final tweaks. 36/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Where is this 3 to 4 coming from for unv? lol Hey we will get over an 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What doesn't make sense to me from the NWS snowfall map is that the NAM shows Cumberland county total precip between one inch and 1.25" yet they have most of the county in 4 to 6 except extreme sw corner. If the NAM precip is even close to correct, then that would be a 5:1 snow:liquid ratio which doesn't seem anywhere close to reality. Now I see the GFS total for Cumberland looks like between 0.5" and 0.75"...so it would seem they are siding with GFS qpf and ignoring the NAM? BTW....thanks to everyone for kindly including Carlisle in your snowfall predictions!! I think if I averaged everyone's totals out it comes out to around 6" which is what I am hoping for from this storm. I pretty much stay out of the forecasting stuff while prefering to observe and record wx data, so no predictions from me....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 What doesn't make sense to me from the NWS snowfall map is that the NAM shows Cumberland county total precip between one inch and 1.25" yet they haved most of the county in 4 to 6 except extreme sw corner. If the NAM precip is even close to correct, then that would be a 5:1 snow:liquid ratio which doesn't seem anywhere close to reality. Now I see the GFS total for Cumberland looks like between 0.5" and 0.75"...so it would seem they are siding with GFS qpf and ignoring the NAM? BTW....thanks to everyone for kindly including Carlisle in your snowfall predictions!! I think if I averaged everyone's totals out it comes out to around 6" which is what I am hoping for from this storm. I pretty much stay out of the forecasting stuff while prefering to observe and record wx data, so no predictions from me....lol. I forgot to add Carlisle. I would go with 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg NAM usually is on the extreme high end with precip numbers... thats why they will not go with exactly what it says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Carlisle is in a really good spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hi res models are looking very good for the initial early am waa precip for the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Me (4 mi S of US30 near the Susqy): 9.5 JST: 7" AOO: 2.5" UNV: .75" MDT: 5" THV: 11" LNS: 9" Somerset: 13" Hagerstown: 16" IPT: T (for Tears) I make predictions like I play poker- go big or go broke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/LAST.jpg NAM usually is on the extreme high end with precip numbers... thats why they will not go with exactly what it says I don't know the story behind this DT character, but that map stinks in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 twc currently has 1 overnight, 4-6 tomorrow, and 1-2 tomorrow night for harrisburg... most ive seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I don't know the story behind this DT character, but that map stinks in my opinion. hes just like Joe Bastardi... very smart meteorologist... but will forecast for what impacts his clients the best then try to spin things when its obvious hes wrong to make it look like he should still be trusted... days ago he said the models were not going to push precip north of mason dixon line and def no snow for new england... this morning he admitted he was wrong with his first map but hes riding the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 hes just like Joe Bastardi... very smart meteorologist... but will forecast for what impacts his clients the best then try to spin things when its obvious hes wrong to make it look like he should still be trusted... days ago he said the models were not going to push precip north of mason dixon line and def no snow for new england... this morning he admitted he was wrong with his first map but hes riding the euro Caveat: I don't believe JB's ever told someone he was going to bang their mom or called someone a stupid dyke whore cow over a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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