Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I know a bunch of us also read and sometimes post in the other region forums...I know a bunch of us also read and sometimes post in the other region forums... I don't, normally, but if I win this, I'm going to the NYC thread and Richmond, VA threads and posting OVER 9,000!!!!! gifs of football spikes and deion sanders dances. Mitchell Gaines said it was having massive feedback issues. The term "massive feedback issues" just sounds bad. Like, "7:30 AM after a night of enchiladas and jagermeister" bad. Any shot at some new wording here? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 lol, well that I can understand! I was curious why it was screwing the ridges though which is very unusual. NAM obviously despises Tarentum, New Ken, and Westmoreland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks for the compliment, I'm likely old enough to be your father, and...you do this all the time. Meterology is much more than model jumping, son. oh this place is full of lolz today, I have him blocked so i didn';t see his post, but man did this make me laugh. "son"! hahahahahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Three letters WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I just thought his view of possible feedback issues was relevant for the the GFS run as a whole because he is a Met. Does he work at Mt. Holly? Edit: Djr, just thought I should have backed up my reason for posting his view in our forum. You responded as I was typing, haha lol your post was fine. I was just stating what I said because there are good mets and non-mets in the other forums with good informaiton that is great to share what they post here. Just wanted to caution that sometimes a post elsewhere might be based on their location or a specific location someone else is asking about and not the model as a whole. If not careful this then it turns into "so and so said the 12z run is warmer" and that then gets posted in another forum as "so and so from central pa said 12z run is warmer" when as a whole that might not be true. This was happening in one of the other threads yesterday where someone was trying to do a play by play of a model run but wasnt relaying the information they saw from another region properly so it made it seem as if the model run was doing something completely different from what it actually was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 oh this place is full of lolz today, I have him blocked so i didn';t see his post, but man did this make me laugh. "son"! hahahahahah Sorry...he does this all the time. More or less telling CTP what they should and shouldn't do, but then makes himself look silly on the next model run by questioning the decision again in the opposite manner. Imagine if Eric Horst or CTP went back and forth every couple of hours... Sorry folks...carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HRRR has not been fully working lately... but this is from the tail end of the 13z run... bringing precip into PA before midnight tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hahahahaha this place is awesome today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Mitchell Gaines said it was having massive feedback issues. The term "massive feedback issues" just sounds bad. Like, "7:30 AM after a night of enchiladas and jagermeister" bad. Any shot at some new wording here? lol Haha, I was trying to quote him but forgot the quotation marks. He said "the GFS has massive feedback issues in my view". I don't think he has posted his reasoning and I'm not going to even pretend I know enough about the underlining framework of the GFS to be cognizant of how such feedback issues might distort the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I spoke too soon. His response to Famartin: Do you believe the EC and GFS are having an identical problem? Because the 12Z GFS is extremely similar to the 0Z ECMWF. I would disagree with that granted the EC does have thunderstorms in that general area offshore the QPF is 1 inches on the Ec in that region not 3 like the 12z GFS. As a result the EC actually has A CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Ggem a hair south...prbly doesnt really matter. Never seen such a bust potential in a storm...good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Penndot currently brining state roads in York/Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Cumberland county just went to a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dauphin county is under a WWA while Cumberland is under a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dauphin county is under a WWA while Cumberland is under a WSW probably because of the western end of Cumberland County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks like the whole southern tier went to WS warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dauphin county is under a WWA while Cumberland is under a WSW Yeah because the Shipp area will get much more than this area. I'm guessing I see 2-3" on grassy surfaces and maybe some less-traveled sidewalks but roads won't be much of an issue here. We'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Crazy that there's a Warning only ~10 miles south of UNV right now for all of Huntingdon county. In a place where this is the point forecast is only for 2-4. I think 1-2" State College is a good call. I'd be pretty surprised if we even squeeze 3 at this point. Non-headline event and another near miss-- but pumped for you southern tier folks who are finally gonna get a good one!! Enjoy it! Even though it's all gonna melt in three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1138 AM EST TUE MAR 05 2013VALID MAR 05/1200 UTC THRU MAR 09/0000 UTC...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIRINGEST......EVALUATION OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS...INCLUDING PRELIMINARYPREFERENCESTHERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE 12ZNAM/GFS DEEMED SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT ITS FCST....UPR LOW MIGRATING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-ATLCTHRU LATE WED......CONTINUING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THU...PREFERENCE: A BLEND OF THE 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET(CONFIDENCE AVERAGE).A STRONG UPR LOW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFTTOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO WED BEFORE TURNING EASTNORTHEAST LATE WED INTO THU AS IT TRACKS INTO THE MID ATLANTICCOASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WHILE AGREEMENT IS BETTER THANAVERAGE WITH THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE MIDATLANTIC COAST...DIFFERENCES IN TRACK DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTICOCEAN.QUESTIONS EXIST IN HOW MUCH OF A N TURN THIS LOW WILL TAKE AS SOMEMODEL FORECASTS HAVE A GREATER IMPACT IN NEW ENGLAND.THE OLDER NAM RUNS WERE ON THE SLOW END OF THE CYCLONE TIMING INTOTHE ATLANTIC AND THE 12Z RUN HAS NUDGED THE FORWARD SPEED FASTER.THE NAM HAS NUDGED THE OVER-WATER TRACK NORTH OF ITS 00Z RUN BUTIS STILL ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE SFCLOW POSITIONS/TRACK. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED THE SFC-700 MB LOWFASTER OFFSHORE AND THIS TREND MAKES THE GFS THE FASTEST SOLUTIONOF THE SUITE OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES.GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN...A FASTER SOLUTION IS NOTPREFERRED....WITH THE 06Z GFS/GEFS MEAN CLUSTERING BETTER TIMINGWISE WITH THE 09Z SREF MEAN/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF.THE CONSENSUS PREFERENCE IS REPRESENTED BY A BLEND OF THE 09Z SREFMEAN/00Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET.http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml#verification found this under Model Diagnostic Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Warnings up for Lebanon county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Warnings up for Lebanon county. Weird; my WWA lists Lebanon ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I just thought his view of possible feedback issues was relevant for the the GFS run as a whole because he is a Met. Does he work at Mt. Holly? Edit: Djr, just thought I should have backed up my reason for posting his view in our forum. You responded as I was typing, haha GFS is having feedback issues, but the problem is knowing weather it is correct or not. Feedback does happen, sometimes its an error and other times it actually does interfere with the dynamics of the storm and the development of a healthy CCB. The problem for southern PA is not the track. If you look at the low track across interior southeast VA and over the southernn Chesapeake that is perfect for the area near and just north of the Mason Dixon line. The problem as I see now, that makes a HUGE impact on the southern teir of PA into central PA, is the Euro and now the GFS go through a period tomorrow where the low stalls, occludes, becomes stacked, then transfers east. As this transfer takes place, the vv's and forcing in the ccb slacks off a bit, the globals are less amped with the system so they really kill the transfer of moisture into the ccb more then the high res models. Then as the system is less organized that convection to the east is enough to pull the whole thing east. This whole process causes the ccb to contract for a time and pull back down into northern VA, then transfer east. By the time the system gets amped up again, its well east of our area. The high res models are way more amped with the system, more dynamic, and thus during this transition they hold the ccb together better. The system still goes though this transition but since it is more amped to begin with, it is able to hold itself together and fire up again, and thus the convection to the east of the low has little or no impact on the system. I have no idea which solution is more correct, I like that the high resolution models are on our side, especially the high res nam and most of the SREF solutions. If we start to lose those, then its probably game over. I suspect reality ends up a compromise between the high res and the globals. Just my 2 cents, and probably not worth more then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wierd my weather phone app alerted me warnings for Lebanon County but it still not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HRRR has not been fully working lately... but this is from the tail end of the 13z run... bringing precip into PA before midnight tonight! High res models are loving our area, globals not so much. I explained why in my post above. I think a compromise is a good way to go, and that is not a bad result for southern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks hoff, great post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 High res models are loving our area, globals not so much. I explained why in my post above. I think a compromise is a good way to go, and that is not a bad result for southern PA. yea that is something I wasn't noticing until now and makes complete sense... thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Thanks hoff, great post. what he said....Glad your posting your 2 cents! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Crazy that there's a Warning only ~10 miles south of UNV right now for all of Huntingdon county. In a place where this is the point forecast is only for 2-4. Northern Huntingdon County, Warriors Mark, Barree, Pine Grove etc etc etc will see your 2-4 but it's a large county in terms of north-south. Huntingdon proper will probably see about 5-6 inches while to the south, places like Orbisonia, Shade Gap, Rockhill are all within the 8-10 that most would put for the parts just north of the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Northern Huntingdon County, Warriors Mark, Barree, Pine Grove etc etc etc will see your 2-4 but it's a large county in terms of north-south. Huntingdon proper will probably see about 5-6 inches while to the south, places like Orbisonia, Shade Gap, Rockhill are all within the 8-10 that most would put for the parts just north of the southern tier. I will take my 3-5 and sign on the dotted line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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