NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure it really moves south, but it really cut back on precip a bit. Would make a big difference to folks in the harrisburg area that are really on the fringe right now. It shouldn't be much of a surprise, NAM has a history of overdoing precip then pulling back at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Seems to be a reasonable compromise with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Precipitation entering SW PA. Radar looks really juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NOVA is gonna get smoked. Dont know if Eastern is here, but you look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Could you elaborate on what you mean? Always eager to learn. I am working on putting together a few images of what I have been looking at and will post in a couple minutes... I would love to find someone who has studied this that might be on this board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure it really moves south, but it really cut back on precip a bit. Would make a big difference to folks in the harrisburg area that are really on the fringe right now. MDT is about the same but york now up to 1" qpf... I would love to see GFS come closer to its 6 and 18z runs today than the 12 at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 BTW Ctp really tightening the fringe. Now sitting in 2-3 inch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 PennLive headline: "Heavy snow to fall across midstate. Maybe. Probably." That's hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hahaha ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 The difference in the NAM total between 0z & 18z is how strong the CCB is up here. It's gone back and forth a couple times. Start looking towards some other High-Res short range models that can get a handle on the mesoscale dynamics to get a better idea. The strength and rate if decay of that CCB band as it comes over us tomorrow should make it break the storm for us. Also what PSUHOFFMAN mentioned before about a secondary maximum snowfall area setting up possibly because our location in regard to the confluence could play a major role. I think we should rout for a smooth transfer to the secondary For the good CCB to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 15714...I know Im not an expert, but looking at radar Id say you are 4+ easy of mashed tater type snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam precip just for the heck of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 15714...I know Im not an expert, but looking at radar Id say you are 4+ easy of mashed tater type snow. Hope so. Sitting at 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not sure it really moves south, but it really cut back on precip a bit. Would make a big difference to folks in the harrisburg area that are really on the fringe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amishwxman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sitting at 25F here in northern Dauphin county. Pressure dropping. Hoping for more than 6in of the white stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Imagine that....you would say that. Your post made no sense and now trying to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 0z NAM still has that inverted trough feature for Friday. Probably won't happen but cool to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ok here is what I am referring to... based on this article -- http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF964.1 There are more parts to this but I am not going to overload the post with images... the -5 anomaly is due to easterly component for the top image can get to these off of this site http://nws.met.psu.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Had a long day, I'm finally getting up to speed with the models and whatnot. I just saw 21z SREFs, they're really tight.. that's probably why CTP just retracted their map slightly. For me personally, I'm setting the bar at 4" in my backyard as the amount I would be happy with in this event. The regular models as well as the RAP and HRRR (whenever the damn things work) indicate a straight up nail biter between the turnpike and I-80 in true central. As for my map, some tweaks here and there but I'm happy with it overall. Biggest change was in the east, making a broader 3-6 range turning northeast and also widening 1-3" zone in NE PA as well. Stuck with my ranges and didn't get carried away.. there could def be some 12-14 lollipops near/along the mason dixon line in that 6-10 zone with the impressive banding that looks to set up. Any rate, that's the final map.. so whatever happens happens i'm over it haha. Final Map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ok here is what I am referring to... based on this article -- http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF964.1 15zSREF850windanomaly.jpg 18zGFS850windanomaly.jpg There are more parts to this but I am not going to overload the post with images... the -5 anomaly is due to easterly component for the top image can get to these off of this site http://nws.met.psu.edu/ Thanks. I will read this later. Got a few things to work on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol nam is trolling nepa with that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nice map Mag. While all models show a tight gradient to the north, to my untrained eye, I cant see how the dropoff in the east was justified as there did not seem to be much of a dryslot component, but more of a smoother transfter, with potential for this thing to stall a little. As it's been said all along for areas on the "fringe", a little wiggle could go a long way with this one. I'm anxious to watch it unfold....however it does. A snow day sounds good tomorrow for the LSV. its been a long time coming. Good luck all. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol nam is trolling nepa with that feature. 1.5 qpf imby.... would be nice.. actualy 1.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 1km Simulated Radar 18z NAM @ 19 hrs 0z NAM @ 13 hrs You can really tell the difference in strength with how the CCB sets up Last image is the 0z NAM radar @ 9 hours. Shows the two bands and highlights the ridiculous gradient by the second one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I know this is really late, but Ill throw this out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I know this is really late, but Ill throw this out there... snowmapPA.gif I like your map and agree with it. I think there is an off shot we go higher and maybe up to 18 if that DEATH BAND sets up as depicted by the NAM along the Mason Dixon Line. KU climo FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Lol the 0z NAM literally went from a trace to a foot on the 73 mile drive on I-99 from State College to Bedford or about 55 miles as the crow flies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 fwiw 0z GFS is slightly wetter for MDT/THV than it was at 12z by a tenth or so... closer to NAM than it has been...works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Whats radar looking like as far as timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0248.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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