djr5001 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 DC now to 8-10" https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BEpTroDCMAEEALo.png:large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Baltimore and DC area all got upped to WSWs. They were WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Watched Wtaj, Joe Murgo said snow falling in Somerset and Bedford Counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Good luck out there-tough call for UNV, could get a better amount than forecasted as these systems often try to make a push north into central PA, much like 2/6/10 did. Rte 22 south seems like a good spot-probably 5-10" sounds right. Finally a good event for MDT/LNS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Watched Wtaj, Joe Murgo said snow falling in Somerset and Bedford Counties Snow seems to be making a decent press northward into PA so far. We should start to get the real time picture of where things will be standing in terms of how far north the decent snows get the next several hours. The last complete HRRR (01z) seems to have decent rates right up to the clearfield/centre southern lines and not alot if anything getting beyond that initially till the very end where it tries to throw some enhancement back. That will be a work in progress as well as the night wears on. Speaking of which, here was CTP's take on the HRRR/RAP as of around 11pm. And i def agree about especially the RAP, the cutoff on that is ridiculous. NO CHANGE IN HEADLINES HEADING OVERNIGHT...BUT AS WE`VE STRESSED WITHTHIS STORM...VERY SMALL CHANGES CAN YIELD SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES(+/-) IN FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LATEST HRRR/RAP DEPICTED ANEVEN *TIGHTER* GRADIENT THAN EVIDENCED BY OUR TOTAL SNOW GRAPHICSOR THE NAM...BUT TO BE HONEST IT DID NOT LOOK REALISTIC AND FORNOW HAS BEEN DISCARDED. LATEST SNOWFALL GRAPHIC POSTED ON-LINE ANDON FACEBOOK. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PA IS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING INFOR THIS STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Sort of OT: Just signed up for a 2 week free trial of GREarth. I've been using it for a whole 5 minutes and I'm thoroughly impressed. It's worth a look. 4" already in Bath, VA per a county official (from GREarth) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 First flakes starting to fly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a day boys (and girls?)! Wish I could've been on here discussing with you guys. Looks like the precip is making a good push northward like MAG said earlier. That northern edge will be nuts though. If you extrapolate that pivot out it seems that the northern edge may try to set up north of the TP and south of Route 22. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a day boys (and girls?)! Wish I could've been on here discussing with you guys. Looks like the precip is making a good push northward like MAG said earlier. That northern edge will be nuts though. If you extrapolate that pivot out it seems that the northern edge may try to set up north of the TP and south of Route 22. Any thoughts? Wind picking up here in Carroll. Good luck up in PA folks, looks like south of Route 30 is sitting pretty for 7"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think the high res models are going to get the win on this one for the southern teir counties of PA. I think some places along the mason dixon line may be good for close to a foot. Should be some nice bands on the northern edge of the precip shield early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wish i was joining in the fun but..... good luck to all who are about to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hai. My post got edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Anyone know how the transfer to the secondary is doing? Seems like the models want to stall the lows Northward motion by 6 am and stall it out for a number of hours. The precipitation shield stops it movement North about the same time on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a day boys (and girls?)! Wish I could've been on here discussing with you guys. Looks like the precip is making a good push northward like MAG said earlier. That northern edge will be nuts though. If you extrapolate that pivot out it seems that the northern edge may try to set up north of the TP and south of Route 22. Any thoughts? I think the edge will do better than that, it's already up to route 22 in Cambria county out this way. The edge of the accumulating snow (> than a dusting) will probably end up somewhere between I-80 and US 22 across the state, and that's a pretty rough guesstimate. It could make it to I-80 in portions of PA . Pit radar out west seems to have the edge just under the US 422 corridor attm with it still making some inroads northward. But with that said, I def agree that the zone between the turnpike and I-80 is fraught with peril when it comes to nailing down snow totals with reasonable confidence with the very sharp gradient. Once your pretty close to the turnpike and south of it, things are pretty well locked in for a hard hitting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think the edge will do better than that, it's already up to route 22 in Cambria county out this way. The edge of the accumulating snow (> than a dusting) will probably end up somewhere between I-80 and US 22 across the state, and that's a pretty rough guesstimate. It could make it to I-80 in portions of PA . Pit radar out west seems to have the edge just under the US 422 corridor attm with it still making some inroads northward. But with that said, I def agree that the zone between the turnpike and I-80 is fraught with peril when it comes to nailing down snow totals with reasonable confidence with the very sharp gradient. Once your pretty close to the turnpike and south of it, things are pretty well locked in for a hard hitting event. I hear ya. What I'm looking at is the potential for that northern extent of precip out west to not really translate to be that far north farther east due to the transfer of the lows and their orientation. That being said, some big WAA DBZs are pushing into MD right now and hopefully make it across the border into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Yeah? Well it damn well better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Weather channel FWIW has southern York county in the 12-18 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I hear ya. What I'm looking at is the potential for that northern extent of precip out west to not really translate to be that far north farther east due to the transfer of the lows and their orientation. That being said, some big WAA DBZs are pushing into MD right now and hopefully make it across the border into PA Precipitation has begun in the lower portion of Carroll County...about 12 miles south of the PA/MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Any thoughts on Blizzard warnings Wednesday. I think criteria is less than 1/4 mile visibility and frequent gust of 35. It would be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 This detailed write-up from Mt. Holly at 9:17 p.m. highlights the insane uncertainity still with this storm. They highlight how different models are verifying with one feature but being off, but a lot in many circumstances it seems, other equally important aspects. I would be prepared for surprises (good or bad) tomorrow. &&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...HOPING A RESEARCH PROJECT COMES OF THIS EVENT AS THERE ARE SOMANY CONFLICTING SIGNALS STILL IN OUR CWA WE DONT KNOW WHERE TOSTART. CAN UNDERSTAND WHY SPRING EQUATIONS ARE CAUSING PROBLEMSWITH MOS GUIDANCE, BUT THE MODELS KEEPING SFC TEMPS WELL ABOVEFREEZING INTO EARLY WED EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE WRF-NMMB WHICHDYNAMIC COOLS TO NEAR FREEZING.WELL AS FOR PCPN VERIFICATION THROUGH 00Z. ALL OF THE MODELS HAD AGOOD HANDLE ON THE AREA PF EXCELLENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCEEMANATING FROM THE SFC LOW INTO IL. SINCE MOST OF THIS FELL ASSNOW HARD TO SAY IF THEY WERE WET OR DRY, BUT THE PLACEMENT WASGOOD. WHERE IT WAS RAIN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE CAN GGEM SEEMEDTO VERIFY THE BEST. A BUNCH OF MODELS WERE TOO WET IN SC AND GA,DON`T KNOW IF THIS WAS JUST BEING TOO FAST WITH DEVELOPINGCONVECTION AS THE FRONT IS NOT SLOW AND THERE IS CONVECTION NOW.THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY TOO SLOW WITH THE BACK EDGE, WRF-NMMB MOSTGUILTY PARTY. AS FOR THE SFC LOW ITSELF, THE 18Z WRF-NMMB VERIFIEDTHE BEST. ALSO GOOD WITH BAGGINESS OVER WRN NC. ECMWF 2ND BEST,CORRECT LATITUDE, JUST SLIGHTLY SLOW, NOTHING NEW THERE. 00Z RUCNOT GOOD, SFC LOW IS NOT IN OH YET AS 01Z. CAN SEE A CIRCULATIONFORMING AROUND CLT AT 02Z. RAIN/SNOW LINE OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINSWAS AROUND 1295M 1000-850MB NAM THICKNESS.AT 925MB IN THE LOCAL AREA ALL OF THE MODELS WERE TOO COLD, THEWRF-NMMB 6HR FCST AMONG THE COLDEST SOMETIMES BY 2 OR 3C. GFS BESTOVERALL. BOTH BWI AND PHL ACAR FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY 2500FEET. THIS MAY ALL BE A MOOT POINT AS THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIRBETWEEN 925MB AND SFC ON THE 00Z SOUNDINGS. IF ANYTHING, THEMODELS TOO MOIST TOO FAST AT IAD LOOK GOOD AT WAL. AT 850MBCONVERSELY THE MODELS ARE TOO WARM BY AROUND A DEGREE OR SO, THEECMWF OVERALL THE BEST. AT 500MB THERE IS MORE RIDGING OVER THECAROLINAS AND THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE DIGGING MORE. THE BNAHEIGHT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE LAGGING BEHIND.THE LATEST SREF EMPHASIZING TWO AREAS AS BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY(WARNING CRITERIA) SNOW. ONE WHERE CURRENT WARNING IS IN EFFECT,THE SECOND MAX MAY BE IN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH. SREF QPF ISAPPROXIMATELY 50 TO 75 PCT OF OPERATIONAL 18Z WRF-NMMB.WOULD THINK THE 500MB FCST SHORTFALLS WOULD RESULT IN A SHARPERTURN WITH THE 00Z MODEL RUN. AS FOR CHANGES WITH THIS SHORT TERM,BASED ON THE PREV RUC AND HRRR, WE ADDED SOME MORE SNOW TO OUREASTERN SHORE OVERNIGHT. THE TOP DOWN PROCEDURE WE DID WITH THEPREVIOUS UPDATE WAS ALL RAIN. LOOKS LIKE A SHOT OF SNOW FOR MAYBEAN HOUR OR SO WHEN INTENSITY INCREASES LATER. ANY ADJUSTMENTS TOTEMPERATURES WERE BASED ON CURRENT OBS. ITS COLDER TOWARD THECOAST CURRENTLY THAN INLAND. WOULD THINK ONCE THE WINDS START ANDCLOUDS ARRIVE, THEY WILL BUMP UP.&& http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 light snow being reported in western adams county as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 ZCZC NFDSPENES ALLSPENESMDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-.SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/06/13 0609ZSATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0545Z CW.LOCATION...MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...WEST VIRGINIA....ATTN WFOS...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...ATTN RFCS...MARFC...OHRFC....EVENT...MOD/HVY SNOWS.SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS CLEAR AND DEFINEDBLOCKING PATTERN SETUP ACROSS THE NRN ATLANTIC WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOWPRESSURE ALIGNED W TO E. THIS BLOCKING IS HELPING TO PREVENT STORM SYSTEMACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC TO SLOW ITS ENE PROGRESSION.THIS SETUP IS KEEPING THE WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER IN/OH/WRN WVAND NEWLY FORMING COMMA HEAD (FROM DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER NC) ACROSSERN VA/CENTRAL NRN VA/WRN AND CENTRAL MD/DC RATHER QUASI-STATIONARY ANDORIENTED W TO E. STRONG SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY IS SEEN RACING EWD AND OVERKY/TN ATTM. THIS UL FEATURE SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE UVVS ALONG THE COMMAHEAD CLOUD SIGNATURE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. BELIEVE WITHIN THIS AREAOF THE STORM SYSTEM...AHEAD OF PV ANOMALY... IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCEFOR INTENSE MESO SNOW BANDS MIGHT SETUP AND TRACK S TO N OVER THE NEXTSEVERAL HRS FROM W-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL VA INTO NE WV/WRN AND CENTRAL MD/DC..AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREASHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY10-15 MINUTES..SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0610-1210Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORTTERM OUTLOOK...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS THROUGH 12Z LIKELY TO SETUP ACROSSA STRETCHED OUT AREA FROM W-CENTRAL TO CENTRAL VA/NE WV/WRN AND CENTRALMD/DC AS COMMA HEAD CLOUD SIGNATURE NOT LIKELY TO PROGRESS MUCH FURTHER NDUE TO BLOCKING SCENARIO. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD HELPFUEL HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES FOR THIS AREA WITH 1-2"/HR AND SOME LOCALLY2"+/HR RATES IN THE MOST INTENSE MESO BANDS......NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET.....FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITEPRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE [email protected] PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/.FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php.LAT...LON 3965 7766 3927 7655 3833 7689 3776 7833 3778 80223938 8037.NNNN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Judging by radar and cams, Pittsburgh metro area getting smacked pretty hard right now with heavy snow. Johnstown cams have snow covered roads and the Cambria Cams on route 22 are snowing as well. I dunno if I agree with the new CTP map lowering accums a bit in the Laurels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Leading edge of the precip up to here and got some flizzard conditions developing. Some flakes being whipped about with a gusty east wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Judging by radar and cams, Pittsburgh metro area getting smacked pretty hard right now with heavy snow. Johnstown cams have snow covered roads and the Cambria Cams on route 22 are snowing as well. I dunno if I agree with the new CTP map lowering accums a bit in the Laurels. Beautiful outside --> NWS PIT reported an inch in the last 45 minutes, so rippin' pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snow has started. Temp: 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 Snow has started. Temp: 33 Same here, pretty decent light snow going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Same here, pretty decent light snow going. Nice wet bulb effect. Temperature has dropped half a degree in past few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Watch for thunder snow. I suspect in some of the heavier bands, you could get some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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