MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 New thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 18z GFS looks to be slightly slower than 12z GFS and staying a little west... doesnt necessarily mean its full track is west... but is hanging closer to coast than 12z as it turns briefly north around 60hr... north of position compared to 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Widespread mod precip on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Widespread mod precip on the gfs Very similar to or slightly better than the 12z run... except perhaps near MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Oh man GFS winding up on Southern New England again towards hour 60 haha, also showing some rain on ptypes for even DC. Any rate, GFS has similar low track to the NAM and look at it's precip extent: Hour 36: Hour 42: Hour 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Low placement is good, trajectory kills us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think I am more fringey this run. AVP seems to be close to the line between heavy and light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When we get to T-24 hours before a potential significant -> major event, I pause for a moment and really analyze the data (i.e.: American vs. foreign guidance, satellite, RAOBs, etc.). I also take a look at the time of year, antecedent snow cover, and ocean temperatures. After reflecting on all this, I still have a lingering feeling this storm will let a lot of people down. NAM/GFS/SREFs aside, I just do not see how we are going to get 8"+ outside the higher elevations, even 6" is stretching it, IMO. Definitely snow on Wednesday, but I'm thinking nuisance to moderate snowfall east of I-81. Take it for what it's worth, I have been wrong before and very well could be wrong again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very similar to or slightly better than the 12z run... except perhaps near MDT.Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Lol nam goes to far south for us than develops precip just to our east. Whatcha gonna do though right???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 my last post concerning him but... im really wondering if DT gets his north and south confused... each run that has trended north he is claiming has gone south... 18z gfs being the latest and it is a disaster for them down south... too much warm air on that run that richmond is all rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 One thing about Dt, his groupies are loyal and forgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't know how useful the GEFS are this close in but they are showing a big hit for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking much better even back here after I was ready to jump ship at 0z. Although at this point I'd be happy with even an advisory event up here. I just remember how many of these things have had UNV in the bullseye around this time frame over the past few years.... and the North trend was never denied even up to ~24 hours before start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Any chance at a steady even non accumulating snow I will be happy. Its March, I gotta be realistic but I would love a few hours of mood snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 When we get to T-24 hours before a potential significant -> major event, I pause for a moment and really analyze the data (i.e.: American vs. foreign guidance, satellite, RAOBs, etc.). I also take a look at the time of year, antecedent snow cover, and ocean temperatures. After reflecting on all this, I still have a lingering feeling this storm will let a lot of people down. NAM/GFS/SREFs aside, I just do not see how we are going to get 8"+ outside the higher elevations, even 6" is stretching it, IMO. Definitely snow on Wednesday, but I'm thinking nuisance to moderate snowfall east of I-81. Take it for what it's worth, I have been wrong before and very well could be wrong again. What has been grabbing my attention more is the highly anomalous easterly fetch off the ocean that forms at the 850/925 levels between this east/northeast sliding storm and the high up north that could help enhance totals in southern PA and the higher elevations in MD/northern VA could ultimately hurt DC and down I-95 (perhaps up I-95 as well if this storm ends up getting the rest of the megalopolis. The GFS was mainly rain for not only Richmond, but DC as well. That might be extreme, but they very well could have to overcome a changeover and temps/time of day could def hurt potential accums there. There shouldn't be ptype issues in the Sus Valley.. but I guess the temps/time of day could apply to the potential accums to a degree there as well. That'll depend on rates I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mag do we have a shot at mood snow even if it doesnt lay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Mag do we have a shot at mood snow even if it doesnt lay? I think you'll sneak some flakes out of this. Not sure yet about getting enough to lay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Cool, I really dont see any huge factors to keep us totally dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When we get to T-24 hours before a potential significant -> major event, I pause for a moment and really analyze the data (i.e.: American vs. foreign guidance, satellite, RAOBs, etc.). I also take a look at the time of year, antecedent snow cover, and ocean temperatures. After reflecting on all this, I still have a lingering feeling this storm will let a lot of people down. NAM/GFS/SREFs aside, I just do not see how we are going to get 8"+ outside the higher elevations, even 6" is stretching it, IMO. Definitely snow on Wednesday, but I'm thinking nuisance to moderate snowfall east of I-81. Take it for what it's worth, I have been wrong before and very well could be wrong again. Just to be contrarian I am actually impressed by the cold given the time of year. Avg highs are pushing 50 now and I was hanging out on the upper 30s most of the day with dew points in the teens. Not sure how much better I can expect in march. 850 temps look good for decent snow growth near the mason Dixon line. Even if the surface is 33-34 snow will stick in those conditions if its moderate or better and most guidance now says the deform gets into extreme southern pa and should be ripping for a time. I think places south of 30 to the md line could pull off 6-10" if this goes as currently guidance indicates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gefs are good and not just a couple of members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What has been grabbing my attention more is the highly anomalous easterly fetch off the ocean that forms at the 850/925 levels between this east/northeast sliding storm and the high up north that could help enhance totals in southern PA and the higher elevations in MD/northern VA could ultimately hurt DC and down I-95 (perhaps up I-95 as well if this storm ends up getting the rest of the megalopolis. The GFS was mainly rain for not only Richmond, but DC as well. That might be extreme, but they very well could have to overcome a changeover and temps/time of day could def hurt potential accums there. There shouldn't be ptype issues in the Sus Valley.. but I guess the temps/time of day could apply to the potential accums to a degree there as well. That'll depend on rates I'm sure. There is a reason dca has only had 3 march snows over 5". It's got to be perfect. But even if dca ends up with 3" of slush iad will get 10" probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Dang, i'd take that GEFS precip mean and run haha. Even gives Wsptwx and PsuHazelton over 0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 1.25-1.50 from the Gefs would be a pretty good thrashing down here. That would knock out some power, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Btw, hearing that the 12z ECM ENS were further northwest than the OP/control. Anyone able to confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Gefs are good and not just a couple of members. http://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/1mar4.jpg someone is trying to get your hopes up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Btw, hearing that the 12z ECM ENS were further northwest than the OP/control. Anyone able to confirm? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS048.gif I dont have ENS other than 24hr at a time here... DT is using this to bash our board here saying there are lies being posted about the ENS being north then just thows up the euro at 48hr with no explanation so i dont know if there is a point in between the 24 hours that it is north or northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 hopes are def not up, in fact expecting 0z to be same or a hair south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Loltastic at dt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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