Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It bumped south east as well dropped IPT and UNV into lighter green and dark blue now cuts dauphin cty. in half. Onto 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can't speak for the eastern areas, but for SWPA / Ridges the 00z GFS is about 30-40 miles south with the northern extent of the heavier precip vs 18z (Essentially cuts some folks qpf in half). Storm seems to be a bit slower as well. The tight gradient exaggerates even the tiniest shift. Barring this being the start of an adjustment South I see no reason the next run couldn't bump north again. Oh, I agree....absolutely could bump either way, and everyone does well. You bring up another good point though. Storm is slower, and that is why we are seeing that .5 line edging through PA a bit, but the only real reason for that IMO, is due to the storm hanging around a lot longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can't speak for the eastern areas, but for SWPA / Ridges the 00z GFS is about 30-40 miles south with the northern extent of the heavier precip vs 18z (Essentially cuts some folks qpf in half). Storm seems to be a bit slower as well. The tight gradient exaggerates even the tiniest shift. Barring this being the start of an adjustment South I see no reason the next run couldn't bump north again. Yep. Went from .5 to .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 models have trended north all day...even the EURO what is your problem? why did NWS put a WSW for our area up? go to bed. Pittsburgh will see more during overnight hours than we will out this way. There is more of a trend to slower arrival than a trend north plus 0z GFS has not trended north. The precip if it continues to trend slower will not arrive here until closer to sunrise. If we have rates of 2"/6 hours like the 0z GFS QPF indicates yea there is reason to be concerned. Heavier rates along the lines of NAM and SREFs will be less of an issue obviously. Yes we have the WSW but there is no guarantee it will ever become warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It honestly doesn't matter when the precip is falling...looking at the GFS verbatim, many are looking at those blues and greens and are saying "wow..that's going to be a good 3-6 inch event" but whn you break it down, and see that for most of the storm, any area north of york is in fairly light precip, but for an 18-24 hour period, you have to take that into consideration. If we get light snow at night with temps in the upper 20s, it will accumulate up here. Once you have a base down, the snow will continue to accumulate. Seen it enough. Some examples include March 16 and March 18, 2004 - we had temps in the 30s and had light to moderate snow, and it accumulated because it started overnight. Both cases we got around 4-5. Looking at the AccuWeather Pro F-6 data, the rates were even around 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 It honestly doesn't matter when the precip is falling...looking at the GFS verbatim, many are looking at those blues and greens and are saying "wow..that's going to be a good 3-6 inch event" but whn you break it down, and see that for most of the storm, any area north of york is in fairly light precip, but for an 18-24 hour period, you have to take that into consideration. I understand what you are saying. I believe Pittsburgh having those problems just because it starts earlier for you. The biggest thing is to watch temperatures and cloud cover. I am not worried because it will be in the 20s here and at night. Plus we have a snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hearing ukie is close to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If we get light snow at night with temps in the upper 20s, it will accumulate up here. Once you have a base down, the snow will continue to accumulate. Seen it enough. Some examples include March 16 and March 18, 2004 - we had temps in the 30s and had light to moderate snow, and it accumulated because it started overnight. Both cases we got around 4-5. Looking at the AccuWeather Pro F-6 data, the rates were even around 10-1. No, I believe you on that. It just comes down to the fact of how light will it be? You probably need to get down a decent base of an inch or two to keep accumulating after the initial heavier burst the GFS is showing. I'm just not sure if the GFS really supports that for anyone outside of the border counties. Good luck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Temperatures have also been pretty low lately. I do not believe anybody really made predicted temp today or for the past few, have they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Temps tomorrow are forecast to hit 42-44, that can't help for quick accumulation at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I understand what you are saying. I believe Pittsburgh having those problems just because it starts earlier for you. The biggest thing is to watch temperatures and cloud cover. I am not worried because it will be in the 20s here and at night. Plus we have a snow pack. One thing then you should be concerned about is the fact that the storm is now starting later, pushing the heaviest precip closer to dawn as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Temps tomorrow are forecast to hit 42-44, that can't help for quick accumulation at first. Sunshine will push it higher than that before the clouds move in... its so dry we could have a high in the mid to upper 40s and it fall enough as the precip starts... just might lose some of the initial if too light to evaporation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 One thing then you should be concerned about is the fact that the storm is now starting later, pushing the heaviest precip closer to dawn as well. Well let's hope for a push north so there are no problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone have global model data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hearing UK moved north. Not sure how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HAHAHA that nyc thread is absolutely bonkers...theyre crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hearing UK moved north. Not sure how much. from the panels I can see UK looks very similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS, after looking, ends up with what I think a middle meeting w/ the next euro. I'd think it is fairly close to what we see. NYC dude just posted a NAVGEM map, for Christ's sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol I had never heard of the NAVGEM until the NYC folk brought it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Hey, can we leave Christ out of this? Dude's got enough on his plate as-it-is and now with no Pope, he's got even more. He doesn't need to be brought into the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol what is a navgem? And canderson I agree 0z gfs will be close to reality...prbly low end warning for mdt and advisories for mifflin juniata. sub-advisory elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Lol I had never heard of the NAVGEM until the NYC folk brought it up. NAVGEM is the model replacing the NOGAPs model.. for better or worse haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAVGEM is the model replacing the NOGAPs model.. for better or worse haha. I'm eager to see your map! But alas I gotta get to sleep, no euro watching for me. It'll just be bad news anyway ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm eager to see your map! But alas I gotta get to sleep, no euro watching for me. It'll just be bad news anyway ... Haha yea that thing isn't going anywhere beyond my powerpoint until I see what the Euro does, especially with the GFS backing off on QPF in southern PA. I also want to see if the GEFS mean remains wetter than the op. I will tell you that Harrisburg is right near my 6" line attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Haha yea that thing isn't going anywhere beyond my powerpoint until I see what the Euro does, especially with the GFS backing off on QPF in southern PA. I also want to see if the GEFS mean remains wetter than the op. I will tell you that Harrisburg is right near my 6" line attm. GEFS mean is back to looking like the 12z GEFS mean. The 18z was a wet outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Just watched the weather forecast from "up home" WTAJ with Steve Newton. Dude has 8-12 for southern parts of Blair, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata and 12-18 for the southern tier. Seems like a bit of a ballsy call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I'm content with around 1" of QPF in Cumberland county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks good for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.