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Central PA - March 2013

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

Ok, i thought there were some slight differences.

So, Sauss, looks like there will be significant differences in accums between you and me, then between me and Zach.  I'm hoping to eek out 6" which doesn't seem to unreasonable at the moment.  I wonder if the gradient will ultimately turn out to be that dramatic inside Cumberland?

 

I was supposed to be going up to Williamsport tomorrow with my wife and son for a meeting at Penn Tech.  My son is graduating HS in June and has been accepted at Penn Tech to pursue Networking/IT degree.  Even though the areas up north won't be so bad, I'm not venturing out onto 81 with the projected conditions for tomorrow.

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Vogan

Vogan

Posted
Posted

GFS is having feedback issues, but the problem is knowing weather it is correct or not.  Feedback does happen, sometimes its an error and other times it actually does interfere with the dynamics of the storm and the development of a healthy CCB.  The problem for southern PA is not the track.  If you look at the low track across interior southeast VA and over the southernn Chesapeake that is perfect for the area near and just north of the Mason Dixon line.  The problem as I see now, that makes a HUGE impact on the southern teir of PA into central PA, is the Euro and now the GFS go through a period tomorrow where the low stalls, occludes, becomes stacked, then transfers east.  As this transfer takes place, the vv's and forcing in the ccb slacks off a bit, the globals are less amped with the system so they really kill the transfer of moisture into the ccb more then the high res models.  Then as the system is less organized that convection to the east is enough to pull the whole thing east.  This whole process causes the ccb to contract for a time and pull back down into northern VA, then transfer east.  By the time the system gets amped up again, its well east of our area.  The high res models are way more amped with the system, more dynamic, and thus during this transition they hold the ccb together better.  The system still goes though this transition but since it is more amped to begin with, it is able to hold itself together and fire up again, and thus the convection to the east of the low has little or no impact on the system.  I have no idea which solution is more correct, I like that the high resolution models are on our side, especially the high res nam and most of the SREF solutions.  If we start to lose those, then its probably game over. I suspect reality ends up a compromise between the high res and the globals.  Just my 2 cents, and probably not worth more then that. 

Thanks for taking the time for a great explanation that a weather novice like myself can understand. I was wondering why the globals lost the precipitation heading TMBY.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the great explanation Psuhoffman. I was noticing the High-res models bringing heavy banding into Adams, York, And parts of Cumberland. I just have a suspicion that there may be huge snowfall differences in places 15-20 miles from each other in South Central PA. Hopefully the higher res models will start giving us a better idea of the banding structure, dynamics, and evolution we go through the afternoon and evening. This forecast would be close to a no win situation if the gradient is so ridiculous that 20 miles ends up being the difference between 4 & 10 inches

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

Do you feel confident about your Crown Royal bet?

i will remain positive, so yes 100% :snowing:

 

So, Sauss, looks like there will be significant differences in accums between you and me, then between me and Zach.  I'm hoping to eek out 6" which doesn't seem to unreasonable at the moment.  I wonder if the gradient will ultimately turn out to be that dramatic inside Cumberland?

 

I was supposed to be going up to Williamsport tomorrow with my wife and son for a meeting at Penn Tech.  My son is graduating HS in June and has been accepted at Penn Tech to pursue Networking/IT degree.  Even though the areas up north won't be so bad, I'm not venturing out onto 81 with the projected conditions for tomorrow.

I told my wife not to long ago when she ask what the cut off meant, i said draw a line between Shippensburg and Carlisle and then another between carlsile and us and put 12/8/3" . Its going to be interesting. i'm still saying 4-6 for Northeastern Cumberland County!

I don't blame you, i would put yur trip off too. 81 Sucks in bad weather.

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

Anyone have any info on the euro?  Just curious. People are asking for my prediction on the storm.

about the same camp as GFS and other global models... increased precip to farthest south pa like york but about the same further north as previous

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Laurel Highlands Wx

Laurel Highlands Wx

Posted
Posted

about the same camp as GFS and other global models... increased precip to farthest south pa like york but about the same further north as previous

 

EURO holds with temp, timing, precip.  No major changes, just really minor run-to-run stuff. 

 

Thank you! I am sticking with my 2-4 prediction. Best shot at 6 inches is south of 22. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Thanks for the great explanation Psuhoffman. I was noticing the High-res models bringing heavy banding into Adams, York, And parts of Cumberland. I just have a suspicion that there may be huge snowfall differences in places 15-20 miles from each other in South Central PA. Hopefully the higher res models will start giving us a better idea of the banding structure, dynamics, and evolution we go through the afternoon and evening. This forecast would be close to a no win situation if the gradient is so ridiculous that 20 miles ends up being the difference between 4 & 10 inches

If the CCB holds together and a deform band can get going, being on the northern edge is usually a good thing, as you can get some nice banding there as the moisture convergence pushes up against the confluence to the north.  Problem is, if the globals are right, and the CCB contracts due to the low going through a messy phase/transfer we get left with light non accum precip while the banding reforms to our south near DC.  I think in the end the phasing that brings this up to Boston might be screwing us over.  If this was just a nice bowling ball low moving across southern VA west to east we would get pasted with nice simple 8-12" of wet snow, but this transfer and phase situation makes it mess and we might get the screwzone that happens when these do that dance. 

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

My final guess:

 

MDT: 2.9"

York: 7.4"

LNS: 4.6"

Shippensburg: 8.8"

IPT: .9" 

UNV: 1.2"

JST: No idea :)

Hagerstown, MD: 12.5"

want to make this a little contest with everyone? Ill go with:

 

MDT: 4.3"

York: 8.6"

LNS: 5.5"

Shipp: 9.2"

IPT: .3"

UNV: 1.2"

JST: 10.6"

Hagerstown: 11.4"

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sauss06

sauss06

Posted
Posted

My final guess:

 

MDT: 2.9"

York: 7.4"

LNS: 4.6"

Shippensburg: 8.8"

IPT: .9" 

UNV: 1.2"

JST: No idea :)

Hagerstown, MD: 12.5"

I'll play, but will add a little

MDT- 3"

York- 9 1/2"

Shipp- 9"

Carlsile 7"

me & djr- 5 1/2"

LNS- 6"

Jaime (UNV)- 2 1/2"

Hagerstown-13 1/2"

WMPT- 3" of tears...i kid - 1"

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NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted

Sweet, can I go?

 

MDT - 5.5"

LNS - 6.1"

York - 9.4"

Carlisle - 8.7"

Shippensburg - 12"

Hagerstown - 15.5"

UNV - 2.4"

IPT - Wmsptwx's weenie tears

AVP - My shouting on a scale of 1-10 over being stuck on the edge

NYC - Flooded by hallucinations and NAVGEM images

DT - FOOK YU HERE COMES RAIN YU IDIOT

Congress - Everyone voted out in 2014

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Yorkpa25

Yorkpa25

Posted
Posted

Man I'm getting roasted, sorry guys... I know I deserve it. Feel like I'm on a roller coaster. I mean york has seen basically zilch this winter guess I'm frustrated when nam shows 1.5-2" qpf then GFS is beginning to come in dryer. I'm sure it's annoying to you guys my comments about WWA but from living here my whole life I can see where this is heading. Was just hoping for this storm to come through big for atleast a memory of the winter of 2012-2013. So I apologize for my childish post earlier but I'm not model hugging I guess it's more intuition even though somebody's intuition isnt a good weather predicting tool. So ill refrain from posting atleast for the rest of this storm. 1: because I'm not as knowledgable as most and 2: I've used all 5 of my post. Good luck all

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djr5001

djr5001

Posted
Posted

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STORM TAKING SHAPE TO THE WEST IS VERY MUCH ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECASTS OF THE LAST 24 HRS. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THINKING BASED
ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL RUNS IS TO DELAY THE START OF THE SNOW
ANOTHER 3-6 HRS IN MOST PLACES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER
QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING
OVER ALL OF THE WARNING AREAS BY SUNRISE WED. THIS WILL CREATE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET
WILL ALMOST INSTANTLY TURN TO SNOW - ESP GIVEN THAT THE PRECIP
WILL BE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVS OF THE STATE.

THERMAL PROFILE IS JUST ABOUT AS GOOD AS YOU COULD WANT FOR HEAVY
SNOW - WITH JST AND AOO SOUNDINGS OFF 12Z NAM SATURATED BY 09Z AND
ENTIRELY FROZEN. ANY WARMING IN THE LOWEST 3-5KFT LATER MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE THE SLR/S AS IT SHOULD VERY EFFICIENTLY PICK UP
EXTRA MOISTURE ON THE WAY DOWN THROUGH THE WARMER AND PERHAPS
SUPERCOOLED LAYER. BUT THE JST SOUNDING FROM ANY MODEL NEVER GETS
ABOVE FREEZING AT ANY LEVEL.

WILL KEEP ON WITH THE CURRENT WWA MAP FOR THE TIME BEING. THE
WARNINGS AND ADVYS HAVE BEEN DRAWN WITH AN EYE TOWARD A VERY SHARP
NORTHERN LIMIT TO THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS...AND A MEAGER CHANCE
FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX IN OR COMPACT THE SNOW IN THE LOWER/MID SUSQ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE CURRENTLY TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND
FURTHER DECREASES PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE AREA. BUT THIS COULD
JUST BE THE LATEST WAGGLE. HOWEVER...WE ARE FULLY INTO THE REALM
OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AT THIS MOMENT. SO...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ON THE AMOUNTS FROM A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/SREF. HEAVY SNOW MOST
LIKELY IN THE LAURELS AND ALONG THE MD BORDER WHERE THE HIGHEST
INFLUX OF MSTR FROM THE EAST IS POINTED. THE TREMENDOUS EASTERLY
FLOW WILL CREATE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 8H POSITIVE MOISTURE FLUX AREA
OVER THE SRN COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN IN OUR
SRN COS. THE EXPECTED MESOSCALE HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MAKING INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RATES. SO EVEN A SHORTER
TIME IN THE FAVORED SNOWFALL PERIOD - NOW MORE LIKE 12-18HRS
RATHER THAN A FULL 24 HRS - KEEPS US JUST AS LIKELY TO GET 6 INCHES
OR MORE OF ACCUM ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THE STORM CENTER WILL BE ALMOST FULLY TRANSITIONED TO THE
SECONDARY CENTER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK MADE BY
THE STRONG CONSENSUS OF THE DETERMINISTIC MDLS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TAKES IT OUT TO SEA FAR ENOUGH BY WED NIGHT TO DECREASE
THE POPS IN THE WEST WED AFTN...AND IN THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...A POSSIBLE NORTHWARD CURVE TO THE STORM WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHEN IT IS WELL OF THE COAST COULD DELAY THE EXIT OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIP FROM THE EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL LATE WED NIGHT.

TEMPS ARE AN INTERESTING PART OF THIS FCST - WITH WIDESPREAD
30-33F TEMPS AS THE PRECIP OCCURS. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE A
SOMEWHAT ELEV-DEPENDENT SNOW FALL. LANCASTER CO AND THE LOWER
ELEVS OF YORK/DAUPHIN/LEBANON CO WILL BE MOST AT-RISK TO SEE A
LITTLE RAIN MIX IN LATE WED/EARLY WED NIGHT. WILL DRAW SNOW ACCUM
MAP MORE BROAD- BRUSHED THOUGH FOR SIMPLICITY/S SAKE. THIS ALSO
KEEPS A VERY STRONG CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS.

&&

 

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