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March 6th Storm Banter Thread


Bob Chill

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The downfall of Pro Forecasters/Mets is social media. If you hype for days that a significant snowstorm is coming and make forecasts days ahead of 6, 10, 12+, how do you tell everyone it isn't going to happen so they wait till the end acting like there is still hope of 12 inches when the moisture is over and the ground is just wet.

 

Reminds me of the Boxing Day Storm a couple years back when some forecasters kept acting like we were getting 10+ even though everyone knew it wasn’t going to happen.

 

I am not sure why NWS ever added a Winter Storm Warning to Anne Arundel and surrounding bay zones. Temperatures over 32, warm bay waters, low elevation, and the Sun Angle doesn't equal snow.

 

I think I know what you mean but I don't agree with it.  Mets have always used social media to get out their forecasts.

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The downfall of Pro Forecasters/Mets is social media. If you hype for days that a significant snowstorm is coming and make forecasts days ahead of 6, 10, 12+, how do you tell everyone it isn't going to happen so they wait till the end acting like there is still hope of 12 inches when the moisture is over and the ground is just wet.

 

Reminds me of the Boxing Day Storm a couple years back when some forecasters kept acting like we were getting 10+ even though everyone knew it wasn’t going to happen.

 

I am not sure why NWS ever added a Winter Storm Warning to Anne Arundel and surrounding bay zones. Temperatures over 32, warm bay waters, low elevation, and the Sun Angle doesn't equal snow.

 

 

That is what I find so fascinating about this storm. How everyone -- tv mets, LWX, Cap Weather, Weather Channel -- all just raced last night between 8 and midnight to up snowfall totals for DC region. And even after they were raised, you could tell many thought they were still too low. Wonder how many felt pressure to raise cause someone else was raising their's.

Not to Monday morning quarerback, but looking back, a lot of forecasters would have avoided all this "bust" talk if they would have just kept I-95 the Rain/snow line.  Stressed people should not be surprised within 50 miles of either side  of the highway to get rain or up to 6 inches of snow. Then, this morning, they could have adjusted upward if needed.

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I've never looked forward to a business trip as much as I'm looking forward to my trip to FL on Saturday. Hopefully I can do some serious battery recharging.

Daylight savings time starts Sunday morning and yeah, we loose an hour of sleep, but it's so nice to have sunlight late into the evening.

Things will start to slowly warm up which means being able to do stuff outside again.

Very, very much looking forward to warm sunshine and blue skies (and thunderstorms)

 

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If yesterday's NAM had verified, we would have just passed the halfway point of our snow.

 

 

DC region is going to need a surprise snow, next winter. After this, and two years of disappointment, you know forecasters will be extremely gunshy next winter on making predictions.  Just have one sneak up, and let the naysayers remember how much better off it is when it's well predicted.

 

At this point, I think any accumulating snow will be considered a surprise snow.

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I think I know what you mean but I don't agree with it.  Mets have always used social media to get out their forecasts.

 

I am mostly talking about Facebook/Twitter. Instant Communication. Showing only model runs with coldest temps and highest precip and acting like they are 100% correct and acting like the warmer and drier models are wrong.

 

I just feel like it has gotten worse also because everybody has a weather page. People with basic weather knowledge and no education or strong knowledge has a weather page. Then the Pro Forecasters/Mets compete with them trying to get the most followers, likes, shares and even give forecasts that are higher totals or colder than is actually realistic.

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I am mostly talking about Facebook/Twitter. Instant Communication. Showing only model runs with coldest temps and highest precip and acting like they are 100% correct and acting like the warmer and drier models are wrong.

 

I just feel like it has gotten worse also because everybody has a weather page. People with basic weather knowledge and no education or strong knowledge has a weather page. Then the Pro Forecasters/Mets compete with them trying to get the most followers, likes, shares and even give forecasts that are higher totals or colder than is actually realistic.

 

I understand what you mean.  I don't facebook or tweet but not because I am one of those people that "hates" it.  I don't do it because it would be one more thing for me to waste my time on.  And I know I'd waste time on it.  I spent the last five days tracking today's debacle here.

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 Mets have always used social media to get out their forecasts.

 

Technically, social media has been around for 20ish years.  Mets and/or "weather personalities" mainly used TV, radio and newspapers before that.  And you probably know this (not sure how old you are), but before the advent of 24/7 news channels it was basically local TV channels with their news programming 2 or 3 times a day.  So, "back in the day", I relied on Bob Ryan during the 6PM and 11PM telecasts for what was going on...sometimes radio, but local TV (the 3 or 4 channels that you walked across the room to change manually on the TV) was the traditional way to keep current with local weather.  Print is and always was a bit behind the curve, with forecasts being obsolete soon after going to press.

 

The internet provides an embarrassment of riches for all types on info, including meteorology and weather.  This is good and bad.  It's great to have access to info that years ago either didn't exist or was only available to professionals, but sometimes I miss the simplicity of Bob saying, "whether or not we get snow from this coastal storm depends on the track, and 50 miles one way or another can make a big difference".  Now to have street cred as a weather enthusiast you have to know about a whole host of info and data sets on the various links and pages we all like to frequent...

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Technically, social media has been around for 20ish years.  Mets and/or "weather personalities" mainly used TV, radio and newspapers before that.  And you probably know this (not sure how old you are), but before the advent of 24/7 news channels it was basically local TV channels with their news programming 2 or 3 times a day.  So, "back in the day", I relied on Bob Ryan during the 6PM and 11PM telecasts for what was going on...sometimes radio, but local TV (the 3 or 4 channels that you walked across the room to change manually on the TV) was the traditional way to keep current with local weather.  Print is and always was a bit behind the curve, with forecasts being obsolete soon after going to press.

 

The internet provides an embarrassment of riches for all types on info, including meteorology and weather.  This is good and bad.  It's great to have access to info that years ago either didn't exist or was only available to professionals, but sometimes I miss the simplicity of Bob saying, "whether or not we get snow from this coastal storm depends on the track, and 50 miles one way or another can make a big difference".  Now to have street cred as a weather enthusiast you have to know about a whole host of info and data sets on the various links and pages we all like to frequent...

 

I would pull a chair up to the tv so that I literally turn the channels from 4 to 7 to 9 back and forth, so I could get Ryan, Barnes, Kamal, and the channel 7 guy that I think is still doing the It's Academic shows.  Back then, I never would have trusted WTTG 5.  My brothers and I called them the "maypop" station.

 

But most of my info came from a little weather radio.  I would listen for chunks of time to get the next hourly updates.  With real human voices too! 

 

Yeah, I get it.

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Things that make me feel good about today (in no order):

1.  JB busted hard with his idea that DC would "fill in the snow hole" before the end of winter

2.  DT didn't get any snow in his backyard

3.  1/2 bottle of wine

4.  Day off with family

 

Things that make me feel bad:

1.  I got 1.5" of snow

2.  DT thinks he was right and the Euro was "1000000% right"

3.  98% of people will only remember this horrible bust and forget meteorologists forecast the weather correctly far more often than not

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Sorry guys...you got the royal shaft. 

 

Just wanted to ask, as I don't really feel like looking it up on twitter or facebook, but what is DT saying? I know he has a tendency to always say how right he was, but he busted something fierce on this one I think...just about everywhere. Even up my way, where he predicted 2-4, many in my area saw 6-12 inches of snow.

 

Just a really strange storm in general. I was expecting Pittsburgh to struggle to get 2 or 3 inches, and while I got only 2 inches because of elevation, places 10 minutes from me got 8 inches. I thought you guys were going to get hammered...and didn't see the bust potential down your way. 

 

Just a really weird storm all around.

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Things that make me feel good about today (in no order):

1.  JB busted hard with his idea that DC would "fill in the snow hole" before the end of winter

2.  DT didn't get any snow in his backyard

3.  1/2 bottle of wine

4.  Day off with family

 

Things that make me feel bad:

1.  I got 1.5" of snow

2.  DT thinks he was right and the Euro was "1000000% right"

3.  98% of people will only remember this horrible bust and forget meteorologists forecast the weather correctly far more often than not

haha, funny thing is dts last call had dc at 4-8 and yes he is claiming he was right

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