andyhb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would just about even the score from Feb 8th/9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If you're JUST interpreting the GFS on its 12z run, I'd say that the majority of the storm is snow with some rain possibly working in once the bulk of QPF has fallen in frozen form, but even that shifts back (if the shift does indeed occur; BOS would be borderline at worst, I think, from what I saw). But this is a fantasy run and it is not to be trusted. As a general climo rule in marginal situations, I hedge snowier in the latter portion of the season, and rainer early on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As a general climo rule in marginal situations, I hedge snowier in the latter portion of the season, and rainer early on... So RAAAY looking confident. Ok then Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As a general climo rule in marginal situations, I hedge snowier in the latter portion of the season, and rainer early on... A wise approach on the CP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just fu* wow - this GFS run full on strike with 12 hour complete stall! utter gem of a run - well... eh, not sure i really want this but it sure is fascinating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Frozen ground and snowcover around here will help to support snow accumulations, the sun angle sucks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow, just wow at the GFS... It would be amazing to have two KU storms in the span of a month. I can't get too excited, unless i see model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, we've seen busts at 24h on the models so it's still a possibility. Euro busted at 6 hours in being too suppressed just 10-14 days ago. Nobody cares aside of me because the only ones that benefited were down here. But, the fact remains it's had some stubborn issues with certain events this winter. I asked a couple of days ago for historical precedent of a big closed low at all levels rotating SE from HAT. I'm assuming there weren't any answers because there aren't really any analogs for the situation as portrayed. the thing to remember is that the GFS has almost always had runs that were too extreme, usually right in this range. This is why people end up saying it blows. When the other models slowly, begruddingly come to the idea of a storm the GFS is in 1888 range. Then it compensates back, we end with a 2/3 of the region saying "Gfs blows" because the predicably too far NW runs weren't adjusted out. If we look at the winter in entirety, we toss this run in favor of the consensus which should be SE because the odds greatly favor it correcting SE. That said, the way things have gone this winter everyone will assume it's the same situation and it'll go for the 100% coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Frozen ground and snowcover around here will help to support snow accumulations, the sun angle sucks though. If its coming down with the force of the gods, the sun angle won't mean too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If you're JUST interpreting the GFS on its 12z run, I'd say that the majority of the storm is snow with some rain possibly working in once the bulk of QPF has fallen in frozen form, but even that shifts back (if the shift does indeed occur; BOS would be borderline at worst, I think, from what I saw). But this is a fantasy run and it is not to be trusted. No, I meant about this whole situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 once you get to maine's longitude, the difference in precip cutoffs between the gfs and euro increases to 700 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wow, just wow at the GFS... It would be amazing to have two KU storms in the span of a month. I can't get too excited, unless i see model consensus.Feb 1969 overlapping into early March.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Feb 1969 overlapping into early March.. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro busted at 6 hours in being too suppressed just 10-14 days ago. Nobody cares aside of me because the only ones that benefited were down here. But, the fact remains it's had some stubborn issues with certain events this winter. I asked a couple of days ago for historical precedent of a big closed low at all levels rotating SE from HAT. I'm assuming there weren't any answers because there aren't really any analogs for the situation as portrayed. the thing to remember is that the GFS has almost always had runs that were too extreme, usually right in this range. This is why people end up saying it blows. When the other models slowly, begruddingly come to the idea of a storm the GFS is in 1888 range. Then it compensates back, we end with a 2/3 of the region saying "Gfs blows" because the predicably too far NW runs weren't adjusted out. If we look at the winter in entirety, we toss this run in favor of the consensus which should be SE because the odds greatly favor it correcting SE. That said, the way things have gone this winter everyone will assume it's the same situation and it'll go for the 100% coup. To amend, the only time the correction didn't occur or that the GFS wasn't amped enough was the huge blizzard. I still view this as more of a hit vs miss scenario pending the euro/ggem vs historic vs epic....which to me means we discount the GFS and shift things SE until the other models collectively blink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Feb 1969 overlapping into early March.. Also 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It will be fun to watch some posters suddenly soften their stance on the GFs...it's kind of like guys who make fun of ugly chicks and then take them home hoping that nobody finds out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Also 1978. um... jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If its coming down with the force of the gods, the sun angle won't mean too much. Sun angle is not an issue at this lat until the latter portion of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Phil says Gfs is a ton of rain Bos / PVD southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yup You and I love that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You and I love that month. We owned it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sun angle is not an issue at this lat until the latter portion of the month. Yeah if this really comes roaring in I'm not concerned about the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Would be funny if this were the storm that I mentioned last night revenging the gfs criticism...which was warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am not buying yet...soon though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It will be fun to watch some posters suddenly soften their stance on the GFs...it's kind of like guys who make fun of ugly chicks and then take them home hoping that nobody finds out. If this all works out this could become my signature for awhile because that's pretty funny. Model beer goggling. navgem rolling in, has the feature over the lakes, better ridging ahead of the system, it's coming north vs 0z navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Phil says Gfs is a ton of rain Bos / PVD southeast Looked like after 12z when it's mostly done. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looked like after 12z when it's mostly done. Fine by me. Yeah, not before a huge front-ender. Maybe 1/4-1/2" falls as rain after the ~2.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well lets tear down some trees and lines then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Watch this keep trending north and verify as a big storm for NS while we get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, not before a huge front-ender. Maybe 1/4-1/2" falls as rain after the ~2.5" of snow. This ending as rain as it is lightening up should not be a surprise to anyone, as even in the previous more excitable GFS runs warm tainting by a rotting/filling appeal was not only outright modeled in those solutions, there is a spring climatology for west Atlantic cut-offs in doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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