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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread

Fozz

By Fozz,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

You could just copy and paste this.  You always think we're toast.

 

 

Yeah, but how are his verification scores?

 

 

You know, that's lame too.  I could say every morning that it's not going to snow, and I'd be right about 98% of the time.  Or more.

I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be.  I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses.  I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens.  Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. 

 

I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential.  I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC.  Same in January 2011.  People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats.  Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance.  I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart.  Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under.  That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms.  I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. 

 

Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th.  It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen.  Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet.  We still have that last window.  It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD.  We will see. 

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be.  I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses.  I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens.  Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. 

 

I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential.  I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC.  Same in January 2011.  People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats.  Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance.  I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart.  Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under.  That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms.  I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it. 

 

Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th.  It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen.  Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet.  We still have that last window.  It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD.  We will see. 

except we got a good event on 1/8

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be.  I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses.  I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens.  Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest. 

 

I think there's an apple to oranges thing going on though. You only get excited when the stars align. So that pretty much eliminates your excitement about 90% of our average winter (100% for 2 years running). So it's a given that you will post a down view on everything until milk and honey goodness is locked in. 

 

Most of us don't operate that way. I just like tracking winter weather in general. 2" would be thrilling. 4" and I fall out of my seat. I think I speak for the majority here. 2-4" is a wonderful and magical thing. Something that may cause the mentally unstable to run naked through the neighborhood. And most important of all, we're trying to have some fun in the face of adversity. I know that if some 2-3" slopfest to rain event is coming right at us that you will be unhappy. We all do. We don't need to be reminded that our pattern sucks every few days. We already know it sucks. Lemons and lemonade is the theme. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I will be excited when I think there is a valid reason to be. I admit I am pessimistic more often then not when it comes to getting significant snow, but honestly for every storm that hits our area there will be 10 misses. I can not stand the JB's of the world that hype up every possible threat and then just move on when nothing happens. Its either a lack of knowledge or dishonest.

I was getting the same complaints back in January 2010 when I was not excited about any of those clipper chances and even though we had just had a KU event in December people were starting to get down again on that winter as wasting potential. I remember from about 2 weeks out starting to get excited about the early February period when verbatim the GFS has a rainstorm for DC. Same in January 2011. People were mad at me because I kept saying these vorts were too far north and moving too fast to give us good snow, and they kept missing us and I was not excited with any of our threats. Then I saw something that seemed to have a good shot so I said I was excited about the chance. I have also been wrong, I really liked a setup in early March 2010 and I thought the early January setup this year had at least a chance, and both of those fell apart. Even as pessimistic as I am, the truth is I am still way more often wrong by overforecasting snow threats then under. That should perhaps tell you something about how craptastic this area can be for long stretches when it comes to getting snowstorms. I LOVE snow, and trust me when there is the right setup and we actually have a real chance, and not just a total shot in the dark wing and a prayer, I will be excited and say so...this year its just been all wrong for us to get snow, and I dont like to sugar coat it.

Finally, so its not all doom and gloom, I like some of what I am seeing in the long range GFS ensembles after Feb 10th. It looks like we moderate but then the trough looks to get back into the east, but with some hint that there will be a southern branch this time, and the trough axis may be further west this time to allow something to happen. Its way way out there, and its just a hint, but I am not ready to write off the Feb 10-20th period yet. We still have that last window. It would help if the MJO can progress into phases 2-3 and not enter the COD. We will see.

Well, I'm with you on the trough aspect. It would surely be nice to see it further west.

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Dr No

Dr No

Posted
Posted

next week's clipper/Miller B has a pretty potent vort- would like to get it as far south of us as possible (there won't be a bitterly cold air mass surpressing it totally like last week)  That vort may slow down and start to tilt negative with time, on guidance, and could then tap some southern stream juice..  In that case, we'd want it far enough south then that we won't have p-type issues and would have a somewhat decent event around here.

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