OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Time will tell. We heard all last month that we were going to break towards better things. Maybe this time it does happen. It's way too early to say much of anything but pretty clearly the pattern is about to change. What time frame are you talking about? 7 days? 10? 10+ Also, if we had a real -nao I doubt the pv would have been camped out just to our NW. Would have been further west or northwest. IMHO. But what comes first anyway it's all tied together and not in a vacuum. the -NAO puts lower than normal heights over the northeast extending out into the Atlantic...why would it have caused less suppression? I've never heard of something like that. The -NAO produced too much suppression in 2009-2010, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 scott, you posted the 324 hour gefs...which is not a cold and dry pattern. That's specifically what I was commenting on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Wow this would be anything but cold an dry. The PV is nowhere near where it has been. That doesn't mean prolific snow, but cold and dry is that last thing that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Wow this would be anything but cold an dry. The PV is nowhere near where it has been. That doesn't mean prolific snow, but cold and dry is that last thing that comes to mind. I think some of the amateurs are expressing a concern that we're cold and dry after the warm up....and then get warmer, wetter storms later...but that's just a I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I think some of the amateurs are expressing a concern that we're cold and dry after the warm up....and then get warmer, wetter storms later...but that's just a I guess... Bingo. It's cold and dry and then as soon as the southern stream gets involved we get a cutter and then cold and dry again. Show me the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 scott, you posted the 324 hour gefs...which is not a cold and dry pattern. That's specifically what I was commenting on. Gotcha. I look at the day 7 or so Euro clipper deal and see the same rough type of pattern that we just had yesterday. Day 8-10 we have a SE ridge which ironically almost helps as we finally try to develop something over the region. But that's 10 days out. Hoping either from some anafrontal type snows, wave behind the front snows or some changing interaction between the diving energy a day or so later. Is what it is. As Ryan said on the other thread, this winter sucks. I think sometimes the pros want to look for and look to "changes" in a very technical sense. Most of us don't care. If it's really cold and dry now punctuated by warmth and rain which becomes just regular cold and dry punctuated by something else that isn't snow, nobody cares, it still sucks. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I think some of the amateurs are expressing a concern that we're cold and dry after the warm up....and then get warmer, wetter storms later...but that's just a I guess... Well we may get some storms that are wet, that's what we deal with every winter here in SNE, but I mean at least we'll get storms, IMHO. Beggars can't be choosers in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gotcha. I look at the day 7 or so Euro clipper deal and see the same rough type of pattern that we just had yesterday. Day 8-10 we have a SE ridge which ironically almost helps as we finally try to develop something over the region. But that's 10 days out. Hoping either from some anafrontal type snows, wave behind the front snows or some changing interaction between the diving energy a day or so later. Is what it is. As Ryan said on the other thread, this winter sucks. I think sometimes the pros want to look for and look to "changes" in a very technical sense. Most of us don't care. If it's really cold and dry now punctuated by warmth and rain which becomes just regular cold and dry punctuated by something else that isn't snow, nobody cares, it still sucks. JMHO. Bingo....99% of the posters here only care if it snows. Though some will always find a way to complain just as they did when we got snow in late December but complained that the temp departures were still positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What a horrific turn if events for the next 10 days. Jesus Christ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What a horrific turn if events for the next 10 days. Jesus Christ After that 4 weeks till morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Euro does have a couple s/ws to watch....one for Feb 3rd ad the next for Feb 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What a horrific turn if events for the next 10 days. Jesus Christ Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What a horrific turn if events for the next 10 days. Jesus Christ Well a little snow Monday, torch after then we get cold and see if anything comes down the pike. I mentioned the third a few times already, but just something to watch. I don't think anything horrific happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Euro does have a couple s/ws to watch....one for Feb 3rd ad the next for Feb 5th. Cool, back to day 8-10 model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Euro does have a couple s/ws to watch....one for Feb 3rd ad the next for Feb 5th. NNE and N NY are looking like the prime spots for the Feb 3rd event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 It's funny with Kevin. He makes believe snow Is coming in the ****tiest setup and then says the next 10 days look horrific. Next weeks torch was modeled. This coming from someone who is on the + side of snow. I'm sitting with the climtate of RDU and still being level headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 those worried about fast flow should see that the ec does have low heights over the SE from 144 hours onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gotcha. I look at the day 7 or so Euro clipper deal and see the same rough type of pattern that we just had yesterday. Day 8-10 we have a SE ridge which ironically almost helps as we finally try to develop something over the region. But that's 10 days out. Hoping either from some anafrontal type snows, wave behind the front snows or some changing interaction between the diving energy a day or so later. Is what it is. As Ryan said on the other thread, this winter sucks. I think sometimes the pros want to look for and look to "changes" in a very technical sense. Most of us don't care. If it's really cold and dry now punctuated by warmth and rain which becomes just regular cold and dry punctuated by something else that isn't snow, nobody cares, it still sucks. JMHO. You seem to be discussing it as if it's already happened. We just don't know. It doesn't have the marks of a an epic snow pattern...but it looks like better risk of snows than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 those worried about fast flow should see that the ec does have low heights over the SE from 144 hours onward. Yeah but it seems as of recent days we're seeing some model movement as they try to ascertain the changes. Euro in particular. Euro etc have some semblance of digging energy at 100-120 hours straight down out of Canada. Earlier it was being shunted more SE, now it's at least attempting to come down. Timing blows still, but who knows. Will, yeah and it's not knocking either side. The academics can study how this pattern was different than the analogs that provided better outcomes. The average person is here because they like snow. No snow, no likey. I still like the idea of something around the timing of the front. Models are moving so wildly with the energy it's really impossible to say much yet. You seem to be discussing it as if it's already happened. We just don't know. It doesn't have the marks of a an epic snow pattern...but it looks like better risk of snows than average. Key word in my post was IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Serious flizzard out there... Here's how low our standards for excitement have gotten: I wonder if we reach 7.5" for season at KBOS (currently 7.4)? We did it... 0.1" last night for 7.5" since Jul 1. Normal for season 20.8". As was the case 2011-2012, KBOS is among the lowest % departure from normal in SNE (or even Mid-Atlantic). KBOS this time last year: 7.8" Other site snowfall since Jul 1 (and normal value in parenthesis). Concord NH 19.1 (31.8) Albany NY 17.8 (30.9) Philadelphia PA 4.0 (8.5) Baltimore MD 4.3 (8.5) Worcester MA 32.0 (30.9) Portland ME 32.9 (30.9) Hartford CT 19.9 (19.3) Monday, KBOS swings for 1936-37? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 We did it... 0.1" last night for 7.5" since Jul 1. Normal for season 20.8". As was the case 2011-2012, KBOS is among the lowest % departure from normal in SNE (or even Mid-Atlantic). KBOS this time last year: 7.8" Other site snowfall since Jul 1 (and normal value in parenthesis). Concord NH 19.1 (31.8) Albany NY 17.8 (30.9) Philadelphia PA 4.0 (8.5) Baltimore MD 4.3 (8.5) Worcester MA 32.0 (30.9) Portland ME 32.9 (30.9) Hartford CT 19.9 (19.3) Monday, KBOS swings for 1936-37? Wow at concord and Albany. Jerry was correct 8 months ago. Back to back dead ratters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 It may never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 It may snow again Monday FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 FYP Take what we can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 You know if I had 10" until mid Feb and then somehow had a 20" blockbuster, it would still beat most winters when I was a kid when the max snowfall was 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Wow at concord and Albany. Jerry was correct 8 months ago. Back to back dead ratters The deadest of the rats resides west. Chicago IL: 2.8" -15.4" But there are a few success stories out yonder. Columbus OH: 20.4" +6.8" Indianapolis IN: 16.5" +1.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Saw people on the ice for the first time this season here. Ice fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 can someone show me how to find snowfall departures to the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Well a little snow Monday, torch after then we get cold and see if anything comes down the pike. I mentioned the third a few times already, but just something to watch. I don't think anything horrific happened. I dunno dude.. I was really thinking and looking forward to an exciting couple of weeks until mid-late Feb and today's runs and ens really took some of my enthusiasm away. Why can't we just a run of the mill 40 degree mild up. We never used to have these 50's for days warmups like we've had the last few winters. I'll stay the course for now..but there's a guy with an ice pick lurking in the woods ahead ready to slash my tires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 can someone show me how to find snowfall departures to the day? For my post above, I used: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/ You can then select a region, then a specific city, and then you can get the latest daily climate reports including daily snowfall departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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