Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gfs getting closer post frot or just a bit later I should add right now closer to double rainstorms as we are still warm sectored as it tries to develop this next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What a nightmare on the 12z GFS for next thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 What a nightmare on the 12z GFS for next thurs Puke city... but at least cold comes back in again later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Soul crushing run of the gfs. Luckily it's probably too fast with the 2nd wave. Glad to see there's a defined second wave now. Baby steps Gfs *should* be too fast with the follow up energy. Almost always is. That's better for a lot of you NW peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Puke city... but at least cold comes back in again later... Big deal, We get the frost to go down 6' because of bare ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Big deal, We get the frost to go down 6' because of bare ground Well, if any snow comes after, at least it won't melt right away...mud season delayed a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Well, if any snow comes after, at least it won't melt right away...mud season delayed a few days. Well, We shall see how Feb plays out, It won't be long if this continues we will be able to punt this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Remember op gfs will be slow to come around. Kind of expected this in earlier runs...eventually the energy ticked far enough to create a storm that hangs the front. I like where a lot of you sit in western and northern ne. Patience on this one. I doubt we end up with dual rainers. May miss but I doubt dual rainers at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Folks are melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Remember op gfs will be slow to come around. Kind of expected this in earlier runs...eventually the energy ticked far enough to create a storm that hangs the front. I like where a lot of you sit in western and northern ne. Patience on this one. I doubt we end up with dual rainers. May miss but I doubt dual rainers at the moment I think the gfs only has one rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 That threat on Thursday/Friday may have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I think there are growing signs that by about the 9th or 10th we are breaking down this current pattern. Good riddance. Ill take my chances with something else and an abundance of deep cold over us and to our north. That should at least provide chances during the transition period in the feb 8-20 time period. In the meantime the euro produces zero snow outside of Monday for the next ten days. We get milded up with the cutter, watch 1 or 2 waves develop and miss after the front, one along and one well after and then cross our fingers for the 2/3 to 2/6 period. What is it specifically that everyone is seeing that brings us from the pattern we have to one that is cold AND snowy when the caldenar flips? There's definite signs to me that the coming regime isn't exactly the same as the last one. It isn't as cold...the PV over Hudson Bay is considerably looser...the EPO is weaker...but we have a +PNA. The flow shouldn't be quite as strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I think the gfs only has one rain event I think the gfs only has one rain event If you don't count the rains on the front side of the first storm that goes into Quebec. The gfs has been steadily moving away from a frontal passage with rain to now a wave on the front with rain. Technically two distinct areas of low pressure. First one slings the warm front up over us with some rain, moves off into Canada leaving a front behind on which a low develops and moves west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 That threat on Thursday/Friday may have legs. Further west the better off you are right now. Lets see what other models do...pretty confident the gfs is going to be too quick in developing the low over the se on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Looks to me like meat grinder fast flow after the front like we just had. At this point I don't see how things casn slow down enough for 2nd wave to dig. GFS nailed last nights flizzard while other models waffled. I dunno......hard to be optimistic this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Further west the better off you are right now. Lets see what other models do...pretty confident the gfs is going to be too quick in developing the low over the se on the front. I'm looking at the clipper behind the main cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Further west the better off you are right now. Lets see what other models do...pretty confident the gfs is going to be too quick in developing the low over the se on the front. I'm looking at the clipper behind the main cold front. That's the energy to watch imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The double quote thing sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The double quote thing sucks It's strange...it doesn't do it to me. What browser did you make that last post with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 There's definite signs to me that the coming regime isn't exactly the same as the last one. It isn't as cold...the PV over Hudson Bay is considerably looser...the EPO is weaker...but we have a +PNA. The flow shouldn't be quite as strong. Yeah good summation. That why I said it may be more volatile with various types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I read somewhere on this thread that some mets said winter is going to end around Valentines Day? That's too early. And yes, this double quote thing sucks. I know what you're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yeah good summation. That why I said it may be more volatile with various types of storms. Isn't a looser PV a good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 The double quote thing sucks It's strange...it doesn't do it to me. What browser did you make that last post with? This is iPhone / tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Osu I think models are hinting that they're all kind of tied together. Op gfs is probably too fast with this frontal wave thing. The front probably gets further east, the trailing energy slower. Wave develops further se and later, as the "clipper" energy starts to slide down. All conjecture, but just my thought of what could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Double quotes happen from double taps. But it's a pita Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Yeah good summation. That why I said it may be more volatile with various types of storms. yeah I remember during the first few days of the change back to cooler weather after the torch period (when it wasn't really cold yet) there was a monster 468dm PV over Hudson Bay located in a very similar location to this one late next week..but this one is inducing significant colder than normal weather over the lakes and the northeast...along with favorable LES conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Isn't a looser PV a good thing? yes...of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Osu I think models are hinting that they're all kind of tied together. Op gfs is probably too fast with this frontal wave thing. The front probably gets further east, the trailing energy slower. Wave develops further se and later, as the "clipper" energy starts to slide down. All conjecture, but just my thought of what could happen. I'd have more faith in a post-frontal clipper than the wave coming in soon enough to actually back up the front and make anafrontal snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 This is iPhone / tapatalk I'm on iOS6 and it didn't do it to me on my iPad2. Maybe it's a tapatalk issue? Not sure what Sunny is using. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Double quotes happen from double taps. But it's a pita Yeah, but I think Phil is referring to the multiple quotes in 1 quote issue. It almost looks like the old nested quote format without separating them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.