Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Ggem has none of the gfs wave stuff. Flooding rains with the passage of the front and a clipper that misses. I don't see there being any room for a clipper to do much of anything as modeled. Hopefully that changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I'd have more faith in a post-frontal clipper than the wave coming in soon enough to actually back up the front and make anafrontal snow.I rarely have faith in anafrontal snow other than as a moral victoryAnafrontal and norluns are so fickle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I rarely have faith in anafrontal snow other than as a moral victory Anafrontal and norluns are so fickle that anafrontal that happened in 1888 was pretty cool though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 that anafrontal that happened in 1888 was pretty cool though lolMeh(did not know it was that - cool) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gefs biting a little. Flipping between 96 - 120 would be some snows in the cold sector but well west of us. Logan11 winning http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I read somewhere on this thread that some mets said winter is going to end around Valentines Day? That's too early. And yes, this double quote thing sucks. I know what you're talking about. Lol, so march is no longer a winter month and now we're tossing half of February? Meh' I'll believe it when I see it no matter what met is calling for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Clipper is nothing on the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 yes...of course. Ok that's what I thought. I think it was the context of your post that made it seem like it is a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Lol, so march is no longer a winter month and now we're tossing half of February? Meh' I'll believe it when I see it no matter what met is calling for it. I think Feb will be fine. People are just getting impatient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Dendrite yet I see what you and Phil are saying. CSS problem with the quotes its not nesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Ok that's what I thought. I think it was the context of your post that made it seem like it is a bad thing. that was scott who said that...but I think he's just saying there's more of a taint risk but less suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I would do anything for a storm like this!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_1888 that anafrontal that happened in 1888 was pretty cool though lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 that was scott who said that...but I think he's just saying there's more of a taint risk but less suppressive. Yeah that wasn't meant to sound bad at all. It just means we may substitute cold and dry with more storminess. Not all of them may be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gefs is meh thru 10 days. Maybe some weak se ridging trying to pop is what we need from time to time to stop the suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 At least there's no massive snowpack to be destroyed this week...makes the midweek a *bit* easier to take. Will wash the salt off my car too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Roads are just nasty right noe with salt residue. Clouds up and coats everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 At least there's no massive snowpack to be destroyed this week...makes the midweek a *bit* easier to take. Will wash the salt off my car too Will be nice to go to the car wash, air dry it if I feel like it, and stick the arm out the window for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Gefs is meh thru 10 days. Maybe some weak se ridging trying to pop is what we need from time to time to stop the suppression what are you looking for in the gefs for you to be excited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I have a shot at 60 during the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I guess here's my problem with the long term. I don't see anything that changes the cold and dry. As we knock down the western ridge some the flow just goes more zonal reducing amplification threats even further. I'm not saying the modeling is right currently it's too early. But I'm not seeing the positive potential of others just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 what are you looking for in the gefs for you to be excited? Something other than predominately cold and dry. Where is there room for anything serious to amplify verbatim in today's run? I will hold off on getting excited on 7 day clipper threats. Flow looks flat and fast. On the gefs What are the pros seeing that has them more excited for a positive change on that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 what are you looking for in the gefs for you to be excited? Something other than predominately cold and dry. Where is there room for anything serious to amplify verbatim in today's run? I will hold off on getting excited on 7 day clipper threats. Flow looks flat and fast. On the gefs What are the pros seeing that has them more excited for a positive change on that run? Not having sub 500 thicknesses showing up on a day 8 mean over N NYS is a good starting point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Something other than predominately cold and dry. Where is there room for anything serious to amplify verbatim in today's run? I will hold off on getting excited on 7 day clipper threats. Flow looks flat and fast. On the gefs What are the pros seeing that has them more excited for a positive change on that run? seriously amplify? Probably not...but moderately amplify? yeah. I think there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I would like to know when this phantom -NAO is finally going to show up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Something other than predominately cold and dry. Where is there room for anything serious to amplify verbatim in today's run? I will hold off on getting excited on 7 day clipper threats. Flow looks flat and fast. On the gefs What are the pros seeing that has them more excited for a positive change on that run? I agree as of now. Flow still looks too fast. Any modeled threats will probably fizzle as they approach in time. Later, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 I would like to know when this phantom -NAO is finally going to show up lol. I agree as of now. Flow still looks too fast. Any modeled threats will probably fizzle as they approach in time. Later, rinse, repeat. Not in direct response to the nao comment but yeah. That's killed us in this pattern. We replace the pv to our NW with a potential flatter ridge out west and maybe some ridging se. Way out there but that's my concern. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zens500mbHGHTchangeNH2panel324.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Not in direct response to the nao comment but yeah. That's killed us in this pattern. We replace the pv to our NW with a potential flatter ridge out west and maybe some ridging se. Way out there but that's my concern. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zens500mbHGHTchangeNH2panel324.gif the -nao didn't kill us in the past cold pattern. Not by a long shot...if we are getting suppression from the PV then the -NAO would even put more suppression over the area. That pattern doens't look cold and dry at all...at least the one you're looking at 324 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 the -nao didn't kill us in the past cold pattern. Not by a long shot...if we are getting suppression from the PV then the -NAO would even put more suppression over the area. That pattern doens't look cold and dry at all...at least the one you're looking at 324 hours. Time will tell. We heard all last month that we were going to break towards better things. Maybe this time it does happen. It's way too early to say much of anything but pretty clearly the pattern is about to change. What time frame are you talking about? 7 days? 10? 10+ Also, if we had a real -nao I doubt the pv would have been camped out just to our NW. Would have been further west or northwest. IMHO. But what comes first anyway it's all tied together and not in a vacuum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 i would just assume the pattern will blow going fwd. cold and dry or warm and wet. at this point i'm sorta glad it's just cold and seems "wintery" and in these cold periods where i'm bless'd with .001 precip every week, i just thank the heavens. if it gets mild and wet at least the NNE mtns can rack up some snowpack , unless we just torch. but it is nice to see lakes frozen over IMO. I like to see old lady's staying huddled in their houses all day , and i like to see women walking up and down the street in their FMB's . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2013 Share Posted January 26, 2013 Why would the PV be further NW with a -NAO?...if anything it would be further SE like it was in Jan 2004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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