packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well Euro is not going to get it done, weaker than the 0z, the CMC/GFS are nice and all but if the Euro shakes it's head it's usually right inside 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well Euro is not going to get it done, weaker than the 0z, the CMC/GFS are nice and all but if the Euro shakes it's head it's usually right inside 4 days. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, WHILE NOT STABLE EITHER, HASBEEN USABLE WHEN IT HAS JIBED WITH ITS ATTENDANT MEAN--AS IS THECURRENT CASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro is a swing and a miss. Weak and too south. Temps aren't too bad though on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well Euro is not going to get it done, weaker than the 0z, the CMC/GFS are nice and all but if the Euro shakes it's head it's usually right inside 4 days. Yep, not this time. Weaker therefore further south and not as much moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 CMC during the heart of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z CMC would be a decent hit for N and NW NC..... 850s warm as you get into the latter portions of the event. This also shows how a tiny little difference at 500mb in this situation makes a ton of difference in low pressure strength and QPF. 12z Euro keeps the disturbance slightly more positive tilt as opposed to neutral or negative..... thus, a weaker, suppressed solution. I don't know that we will even have a handle on where precip will actually fall with this system for a couple of days due to these subtle, tiny little differences playing such a huge role.....much less the temp profiles. This needle probably won't be threaded for many on this board, somebody might wind up seeing something. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 EURO is just MEH city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 temps and precip seem to be right there especially for the mtns. of nc. I think the models will lock in on something either Tuesday or Wednesday as we get closer to the event. we can't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 EURO is just MEH city! Are you referring to the Long Range Cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sorry, nope...Talking about the storm this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Are you referring to the Long Range Cold? It is actually more impressive with the cold shot next week with a -20 C 850 to Chatt at 216hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Sorry, nope...Talking about the storm this week Hope tonight the models start honing in on something frozen for Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 CMC definitely says FAIL. Not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I cant depict this graph too well but doesn't this look interesting for the SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 CMC definitely says FAIL. Not a good sign. Lol not a good sign??? Its the cmc it blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 At 168, the Euro looks pretty good. Ridge out west is really tall and in a nice location for energy to dive toward the Gulf. Lots of cold in place too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 The ECMWF run loads up a second Arctic shot out on Day 10....very different than the 00z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Euro has temps for much of the southeast in the 30's from around 216 till the end of it's run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 At 168, the Euro looks pretty good. Ridge out west is really tall and in a nice location for energy to dive toward the Gulf. Lots of cold in place too! "Cold air in place" is the variable we need to get a good winter storm. We may get lucky with this system Thurday night but there are so many things pointing to just a rain event, or at most some mix. **I would take a mix at this point but I'm really waiting for a good winter storm (snow that sticks to the roads, ice storm that bends branches, schools canceled). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 At 168, the Euro looks pretty good. Ridge out west is really tall and in a nice location for energy to dive toward the Gulf. Lots of cold in place too! I agree, it would be nice if something came together between days 7-9 and than the mega cold comes in afterwards, whether is for a day or two or a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I agree, it would be nice if something came together between days 7-9 and than the mega cold comes in afterwards, whether is for a day or two or a week. We can't win for losing, though. Either it's not cold enough for snow, or it's bitter cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'll take this look for next Tuesday...isn't that a +PNA and -NAO? Great combo for the SE I believe. Wouldn't we expect some energy rounding the base of that trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I'll take this look for next Tuesday...isn't that a +PNA and -NAO? Great combo for the SE I believe. Wouldn't we expect some energy rounding the base of that trough? Trough is too far east. That is a nice cold and dry set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Trough is too far east. That is a nice cold and dry set up. Trough is too far east. That is a nice cold and dry set up. Agree, maybe there will be a piece of energy coming down the front range of the Rockies the models don't see, merging with some semblence of a southern stream (that the models also aren't seeing currently) that can sharpen the trough, develop a surface low, and yank that trough back a few hundred miles. Not asking for much is it? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Trough is too far east. That is a nice cold and dry set up. I wonder if any clippers could make it to our area with that setup? Sucks that we get cold and and see a NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 This is a good example of where +PNA ridging isn't the end all, be all. The good +PNA setup is when the ridging is strong in western Canada, but there is a southern stream that is undercutting the ridge into the desert Southwest...so there's no ridging in the southwest; rather, there are storm waves tracking from California into the southern Plains / Texas. That type of setup is much more likely in an El Nino. Also, the NAO shown on that map is close to neutral. What I'd like to see is for this major stratospheric warming to lead to a strongly negative AO/NAO, where we see a lowering of the heights across the southern tier induced by the -AO/-NAO couplet, with much more cold air available this go around compared to Dec. I'd like to see that in lieu of this massive, northern stream dominant, cold vortex in southern Canada, which is cold, but dry. I'll take this look for next Tuesday...isn't that a +PNA and -NAO? Great combo for the SE I believe. Wouldn't we expect some energy rounding the base of that trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I wonder if any clippers could make it to our area with that setup? ***** that we get cold and and see a NW flow. I can't recall ever getting any snow of any consequence from a clipper in north GA. Maybe it's just my poor memory and someone will correct me. I've seen clipper perform decent in TN and NC though many times. Agree, maybe there will be a piece of energy coming down the front range of the Rockies the models don't see, merging with some semblence of a southern stream (that the models also aren't seeing currently) that can sharpen the trough, develop a surface low, and yank that trough back a few hundred miles. Not asking for much is it? haha LOL...I will be rooting for that one for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I woke up wondering if all this talk of ice here in NW MS was for nothing. It prob temporarily ended up being a salvation for us that it had been warm previously. It was about 34 at 5 this morn, temp slowly dropped to uder 32 by 9, precip started about 10 (freezing rain and sleet). Had moderate rounds and now trees grassy areas, elevated structures are covered. Im thinking now there may be trouble when the next batch moves in later as the surfaces prob have now cooled significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I woke up wondering if all this talk of ice here in NW MS was for nothing. It prob temporarily ended up being a salvation for us that it had been warm previously. It was about 34 at 5 this morn, temp slowly dropped to uder 32 by 9, precip started about 10 (freezing rain and sleet). Had moderate rounds and now trees grassy areas, elevated structures are covered. Im thinking now there may be trouble when the next batch moves in later as the surfaces prob have now cooled significantly. It's starting to look like it was underplayed. Jackson was reporting freezing rain, and Vicksburg was reporting snow earlier (and now freezing rain at 31F). Memphis looks pretty rough right now as on the TDOT webcams all the bridges and overpasses are starting to ice over. There's still plenty of traffic out there but it's slowing down and dwindling. Nashville might get some freezing rain/snow/sleet in the next few hours as this slog of moisture moves north over the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I can't recall ever getting any snow of any consequence from a clipper in north GA. Maybe it's just my poor memory and someone will correct me. I've seen clipper perform decent in TN and NC though many times. Not sure what year but we did have a couple minor events from clippers. Maybe Larry would know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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