packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can't wait to see a DGEX map. Looks like it hammers the mountains and gives the Piedmont a descent hit as well. It of course is the DGEX. Yeah, it keeps the vort closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z could look interesting it's a little faster but instead of closing off around TX it's doing it in LA and taking a neutral tilt look. We'll see where it goes it's out to 60 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18z could look interesting it's a little faster but instead of closing off around TX it's doing it in LA and taking a neutral tilt look. We'll see where it goes it's out to 60 so far. Amazing, it's 12 hours faster than 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z was to slow, 18z to fast, I guess that's good.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ice Storm Warning extended until 6 pm tomorrow for MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Amazing, it's 12 hours faster than 12z run. Way faster. 12z run had 500mb low over Jackson MS about 18z Thursday. Now it's north of Columbus GA at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 12z was to slow, 18z to fast, I guess that's good.... There will be lots of "ifs" and "buts" with this system. But if only 18z was little slower and if it tilted a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 two contour closed system at hr 60 in LA. Pretty strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Way faster. 12z run had 500mb low over Jackson MS about 18z Thursday. Now it's north of Columbus GA at the same time frame. I can't see the maps right now, but it sounds Euroish to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 two contour closed system at hr 60 in LA. Pretty strong! No need to look. It slides too far south. CLT might get some token flakes but it looks too warm...the system comes too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Thanks much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 We need to hope the NAM is on to something here. See you guys at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I can't see the maps right now, but it sounds Euroish to be honest. I don't have access to any good EURO maps so I will let someone else speak for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 There will be lots of "ifs" and "buts" with this system. But if only 18z was little slower and if it tilted a little earlier. Weakens it really fast. If it stays closed it'll slow down & allow the HP to move over to provide in-situ CAD. The strong PV will provide more than enough cold air to tap into should it occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 All these changes are fun to track, but the BL issue remains -- 2m 0C doesn't even make it into VIRGINIA, much less NC, until the precip pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 ewall maps look like RDU gets below freezing at 850 for a good portion of the precip. I'm sure the surface is warm enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Weakens it really fast. If it stays closed it'll slow down & allow the HP to move over to provide in-situ CAD. The strong PV will provide more than enough cold air to tap into should it occur. Yep, we literally have to time this perfectly, but if if if if, lots of if's, there is a chance for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Ice Storm Warning extended until 6 pm tomorrow for MS. Winter Storm Watch issued for tomorrow in nearby areas...3 counties of TN. Winter weather advisory currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Weakens it really fast. If it stays closed it'll slow down & allow the HP to move over to provide in-situ CAD. The strong PV will provide more than enough cold air to tap into should it occur. Personally I have a good feeling about it. The fact is it's still on the table and we're four days out. Hopefully all the if's can occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Winter Storm Watch issued for tomorrow in nearby areas...3 counties of TN. Winter weather advisory currently. That's great...post it in the obvs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 GSP's afternoon .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 230 PM EST MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVED RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND CONSENSUS WITH REGARD TO MOVING A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS THURSDAY EVENING. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE NE GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SC PART OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE SOME PRECIP THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT THOUGHT IS TEMPERED BY A LOOK AT THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH KEEPS THE BETTER PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF UPSTATE SC THURSDAY EVENING. THAT IS A GOOD INDICATOR OF OUR CONFIDENCE PROBLEM GOING FORWARD WITH THIS FCST. EVEN THE FARTHER SOUTH NEW ECMWF WOULD BRING MEASURABLE PRECIP OVER THE SRN HALF...SO PRECIP CHANCES WERE ALLOWED INTO TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST PLACES ALONG AND S OF I-85...WITH CHANCES ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIP WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS THE FORCING MOVES QUICKLY EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...ASSUMING THIS TIMING HOLDS...WHICH IS A BIG ASSUMPTION. PRECIP TYPE IS THE MAIN CONCERN...BASED ON A CONSIDERATION OF PARTIAL THICKNESS ON BOTH MODELS. THE FCST LARGELY FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ITS THERMAL PROFILES FOR P-TYPE DETERMINATION. THAT SAID...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A WARM NOSE...SO IT LOOKS MAINLY LIKE A RAIN OR SNOW PROSPECT FOR THURSDAY EVENING. LOW LEVELS AND MIN TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN TOO WARM OVER UPSTATE SC AND NE GEORGIA FOR ANYTHING BUT A COLD RAIN. OVER THE MTNS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS OVERNIGHT. THE PRECIP AMTS ON THE GFS WOULD SUPPORT A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW OVER MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS...BUT THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY AS TO QPF. MOST OF THE NC PART E OF THE BLUE RIDGE WOULD ALSO SEE MAINLY A COLD RAIN...BUT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE PRECIP WAS ENDING. SO FOR NOW...WE LEAVE IT AS A CHANCE OF SOME WINTRY PRECIP OVER THE MTNS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... AND WE WATCH MODEL TREND FOR MORE CONSISTENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 more positives than negatives from the last 12 hours of forecast model trends: 1) upper level low staying bundled together a bit longer and is a closed contour or so stronger on a few runs (we need a stronger trend at 500mb to continue) ... & 2) most QPF charts continue to show the ability for this system to produce heavy precip rates (which is THE BEST part of this whole setup) even with the possible in-situ CAD for some... we all know the slightly warmer low-levels (at the boundary layer & 925mb) will be too tough of a situation to overcome n most areas... but, the only way the boundary layer will be overcome in SOME areas is with heavy precipitation rates able to mix down some mid-level cold dynamically using the precip temperature-wise, this system doesn't have a very high ceiling in terms of how much mid-level cold it can produce because of the decaying look of the vorticity (decaying upper low) at 500mb ideally, along with some cold air damming at the surface, I would like to see some -3C at 850mb underneath the upper low - would be really good snow growth, but that doesn't appear to be possible... best case scenario would be some -3C to -6C at 5,000ft (in addition to a weak surface CAD) similar to the the upper low back on March 9th/10th, 2009 again, knowing that boundary layer issues will prevent most from snow and bring mostly rain to everyone (w/ some snowflakes mixing in at times) outside of Western NC and north of I-40 in NC (mostly snow), we'll sit back an enjoy some small area lollipopped with snow under heavy sustained precip rates and around -1C to -2C at 5000ft... I like Western NC's chances... I'll also pull for southern and eastern TN, but the precip rates there may not be heavy enough to dynamically cool the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Date: 3.5 day AVN valid 6Z FRI 18 JAN 13Station: 35.31,-81.23Latitude: 35.31Longitude: -81.23-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 219 SFC 996 254 1.0 -1.9 81 2.8 -0.2 21 7 274.5 275.0 273.2 283.6 3.34 2 950 634 2.4 -6.0 54 8.4 -0.7 30 18 279.6 280.1 275.0 286.9 2.56 3 900 1069 1.2 -10.6 41 11.8 -2.8 38 21 282.7 283.1 275.7 288.3 1.90 4 850 1528 0.6 -18.5 22 19.2 -4.8 36 21 286.8 287.0 276.6 290.0 1.04 5 800 2015 1.5 -27.8 9 29.3 -5.5 32 16 292.7 292.8 278.7 294.3 0.49 6 750 2534 1.1 -31.6 7 32.7 -6.3 32 11 297.8 297.8 280.9 299.0 0.36 7 700 3085 -1.1 -33.7 6 32.6 -8.1 9 11 301.3 301.3 282.3 302.3 0.32 8 650 3673 -3.3 -36.4 6 33.1 -9.9 341 13 305.2 305.3 283.8 306.2 0.26 9 600 4302 -6.6 -37.9 6 31.2 -12.5 320 16 308.4 308.5 285.1 309.3 0.2410 550 4976 -10.6 -42.4 5 31.8 -15.6 315 20 311.6 311.6 286.1 312.2 0.1711 500 5702 -15.2 -47.5 4 32.3 -19.3 311 27 314.5 314.6 287.1 314.9 0.1112 450 6489 -20.9 -46.5 8 25.6 -23.8 301 34 317.0 317.0 287.9 317.5 0.1313 400 7348 -27.2 -46.6 14 19.4 -29.1 288 35 319.6 319.7 288.8 320.2 0.1514 350 8295 -34.5 -53.0 14 18.5 -35.7 275 38 322.2 322.2 289.5 322.5 0.0815 300 9355 -42.1 -64.4 7 22.2 -42.8 266 47 326.0 326.0 290.6 326.1 0.0216 250 10564 -50.6 -68.5 10 17.9 -51.0 262 60 330.8 330.8 291.9 330.9 0.0217 200 11989 -58.9 -69.4 25 10.5 -59.0 255 69 339.5 339.5 294.2 339.6 0.0218 150 13769 -63.6 -71.0 35 7.5 -63.6 256 75 360.6 360.6 298.8 360.7 0.0219 100 16239 -65.6 -77.4 18 11.8 -65.7 254 63 401.1 401.1 305.3 401.1 0.01TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Based on the Euro Weekly control run it's not bad. Actually 2m temps get down right frigid for the first part of Feb. 850's not so much interestingly enough. I'll let Larry give the overall since I have limited views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18Z GFS came and went - and I'm surprised nobody commented on it. It seems to keep the moisture away from the 0C 850 line, so not much luck with that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColdRainsStr8cashhomey Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 18Z GFS came and went - and I'm surprised nobody commented on it. It seems to keep the moisture away from the 0C 850 line, so not much luck with that run. 18z GFS was much quicker with pushing the storm energy east compared to the last several runs & much quicker is a bit of an understatement... seemed to default back to typical GFS breaking the sound barrier-bias of being too fast I don't usually throw out a model run, but that 18z GFS looked strange with the fast evolution of the storm energy at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_snow_disco.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_max_temp_anom_3-7.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Can't wait to see a DGEX map. Looks like it hammers the mountains and gives the Piedmont a descent hit as well. It of course is the DGEX. [/quote Hoping we can have a southern surprise. If not IMB then maybe one of our Southeast brothers or Sisters will get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 DGEX snow map lays about 8 inches across I-40 with about an inch around CLT. Upstate and GA miss out via the DGEX. I'm just 100% certain the DGEX is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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