Atlantic Tropical Action 2013

[bluewave]

So let's assume those seasons were exact replicas with 2013....

 

1967 - Hurricane Humberto

Nears landfall in TX as a Cat 5

 

1984 - Hurricane Ingrid

Hits NC as a Cat 2 after approaching as a rare NC Cat 4

 

1988 - Hurricane Jerry

Hits Jamaica as a Cat 3, hits Cancun as a Cat 5, record breaking storm

 

Hurricane Melissa

Hits Nicaragua as high-end Cat 4

 

2001 - Hurricane Jerry

Devastates Belize as a high-end Cat 4

Hurricane Nestor

Hits Cuba in November with 135 mph winds, 20+ ft surge

 

2002 - Hurricane Karen

Hits Yucatan as a major hurricane

 

Now while that may not be significant for the CONUS, still very intense, deadly and significant storms.

 

It will be interesting to see how much longer the Atlantic Cat 5 lull lasts after Dean and Felix in 2007.

Those years just illustrate that a slow start to the season can still make a comeback in September

and October. But each season is unique, so it's tough to guess landfall potential and possible

intensity from too far out in time. 

[Superstorm93]

 

 

 

The MJO continued to remain weak during the past seven days. However, dynamical model MJO forecasts indicate an organizing MJO signal during Week-1 with an eastward propagation across the western Hemisphere during Week-2. 

The western and central Pacific were active during the past week with Tropical Storm Trami developing on August 17, northeast of Luzon. Trami is forecast to become a typhoon before tracking west across Taiwan and making a second landfall in southeast China. Meanwhile, two Tropical Storms and a Tropical Depression developed near the Date Line over the central Pacific. Tropical Storm Erin was a weak and short-lived tropical cyclone (TC) across the far eastern Atlantic. 

The focus for tropical cyclogenesis is expected to shift from the western and central Pacific to the east Pacific and Atlantic basins during the next two weeks. A tropical cyclone (TC) is likely to develop between 15-20N/105-115W across the east Pacific with an expected track north near the Baja peninsula. This general north-northwest track is supported by most model guidance and is consistent with previous GFS model solutions. A moisture surge north from the Gulf of California is likely to follow, which increases the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding across the desert Southwest. The 12Z GFS from August 20 indicates a second tropical cyclone developing southwest of the first TC, near 15N/115-120W. Therefore, moderate confidence exists for TC development is forecast across this region. Elevated chances of additional TC development are expected to continue due the organizing MJO signal propagating from Phase 1 to 8. 

The large scale environment is expected to become more favorable for TC development across the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic basin later in Week-1 and continuing into September. MJO composites for Phase 1 along with model tools support the moderate to high confidence for TC formation during the next two weeks across the MDR region of the Atlantic. 

 

[wxmeddler]

Interesting news in the aircraft department today... The environmental payload Global Hawk (AV-6) took off this morning on "Science Mission #1" and is currently headed out towards the Azores to probe the dry air that suffocated Erin, and a NOAA P-3 aircraft is currently operating in the eastern GOM dropping ABXT's (Water temp profilers).

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Interesting news in the aircraft department today... The environmental payload Global Hawk (AV-6) took off this morning on "Science Mission #1" and is currently headed out towards the Azores to probe the dry air that suffocated Erin, and a NOAA P-3 aircraft is currently operating in the eastern GOM dropping ABXT's (Water temp profilers).

 

That's actually really exciting.  Hopefully it will provide more insight on SAL outbreaks that can be used for the future.

[Ed Lizard]

It will be interesting to see how much longer the Atlantic Cat 5 lull lasts after Dean and Felix in 2007.

Those years just illustrate that a slow start to the season can still make a comeback in September

and October. But each season is unique, so it's tough to guess landfall potential and possible

intensity from too far out in time. 

 

Mike's Weather Page ( http://spaghettimodels.com/ ) shows a 30 day European (who knew?) valid September 19th that has what looks like a 929 mb hurricane slamming an unusual place, the Georgia/Florida border.

 

I wonder if I pay for the AmWx models (I used to PayPal donate to RaleighWx models) if a 30 day Euro would be part of the package.

[Sunny and Warm]

Mike's Weather Page ( http://spaghettimodels.com/ ) shows a 30 day European (who knew?) valid September 19th that has what looks like a 929 mb hurricane slamming an unusual place, the Georgia/Florida border.

 

I wonder if I pay for the AmWx models (I used to PayPal donate to RaleighWx models) if a 30 day Euro would be part of the package.

I'm resisting the temptation to comment on the validity of any 720 hour forecast.  Even the Euro.

[Ed Lizard]

The ECMWF site doesn't mention a 30 day operational, only a 10 day and 15 day model.  Plus ensembles.

 

They do have a 51 member low resolution 32 day ensemble.  I'd guess (I don't know) someone who had access to one of the ensemble perturbations grabbed a particularly juicy run out of the 51.   http://ecmwf.int/about/forecasts.html

 

Even the AccuWeather PPV Euro only shows the lower resolution control member of the Euro ensemble run with the same initial conditions as the op Euro.

 

There is no way I can imagine an ensemble mean showed a sub 930 mb storm at 30 days.

 

 

 

[bluewave]

The ECMWF site doesn't mention a 30 day operational, only a 10 day and 15 day model.  Plus ensembles.

 

They do have a 51 member low resolution 32 day ensemble.  I'd guess (I don't know) someone who had access to one of the ensemble perturbations grabbed a particularly juicy run out of the 51.   http://ecmwf.int/about/forecasts.html

 

Even the AccuWeather PPV Euro only shows the lower resolution control member of the Euro ensemble run with the same initial conditions as the op Euro.

 

There is no way I can imagine an ensemble mean showed a sub 930 mb storm at 30 days.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, that's what it looks like.

 

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13143-011-0017-8

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

The ECMWF site doesn't mention a 30 day operational, only a 10 day and 15 day model.  Plus ensembles.

 

They do have a 51 member low resolution 32 day ensemble.  I'd guess (I don't know) someone who had access to one of the ensemble perturbations grabbed a particularly juicy run out of the 51.   http://ecmwf.int/about/forecasts.html

 

Even the AccuWeather PPV Euro only shows the lower resolution control member of the Euro ensemble run with the same initial conditions as the op Euro.

 

There is no way I can imagine an ensemble mean showed a sub 930 mb storm at 30 days.

 

 

 

 

Looking at details like landfall location and intensity is silly, of course.  The best thing one can get out of it is that there is a chance for a TC to develop sometime in mid-late September in the Atlantic.

[wxmeddler]

There is no way I can imagine an ensemble mean showed a sub 930 mb storm at 30 days.

I just had a look myself. It's the control (non-modified) of the ensemble. It's 970mb... but yes, it's there, it comes from a wave that emerges from Africa on Sep 2. But it's still ridiculous.

[downeastnc]

So let's assume those seasons were exact replicas with 2013....

 

1967 - Hurricane Humberto

Nears landfall in TX as a Cat 5

 

1984 - Hurricane Ingrid

Hits NC as a Cat 2 after approaching as a rare NC Cat 4

 

1988 - Hurricane Jerry

Hits Jamaica as a Cat 3, hits Cancun as a Cat 5, record breaking storm

 

Hurricane Melissa

Hits Nicaragua as high-end Cat 4

 

2001 - Hurricane Jerry

Devastates Belize as a high-end Cat 4

Hurricane Nestor

Hits Cuba in November with 135 mph winds, 20+ ft surge

 

2002 - Hurricane Karen

Hits Yucatan as a major hurricane

 

Now while that may not be significant for the CONUS, still very intense, deadly and significant storms.

 

 

Actually that was Hurricane Diana that was a Cat 4 off the NC coast in 1984, it was the first real hurricane I remember, they closed down schools and everyone was thinking this nasty strong cane was coming but it did a odd little loop and this allowed it to weaken. The sat image of it right before it began its loop was awesome it looked really good, that night before it hit there was a lot of tension and everyone thought it was coming on in as a Cat 4......then we had to wait a day for it to do that loop before it hit.....

[Amped]

Actually that was Hurricane Diana that was a Cat 4 off the NC coast in 1984, it was the first real hurricane I remember, they closed down schools and everyone was thinking this nasty strong cane was coming but it did a odd little loop and this allowed it to weaken. The sat image of it right before it began its loop was awesome it looked really good, that night before it hit there was a lot of tension and everyone thought it was coming on in as a Cat 4......then we had to wait a day for it to do that loop before it hit.....

And I think 2002s was Isidore not Karen.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isidore

[Roger Smith]

I have the feeling that September will become very active around the 10th to 20th and also that some kind of major storm possibly with a tropical component will form in mid-October and hit some part of the east coast around the 20th to 23rd of October. This is the same energy peak exploited in 2012 by Super-storm Sandy. Many of the same (controversial, to be sure) energy factors occur in that time frame about 8-10 days ahead of the 2012 schedule and actually some of them are better aligned or focused than they were in 2012.

 

My prediction (I shall return to stand trial on the occasion) is that there will be a big weather event with a good chance of tropical involvement (hybrid most likely) in the eastern U.S. Oct 19-24 and it will have a northward-moving and high-latitude blocking character.

[Derecho!]

I have the feeling that September will become very active around the 10th to 20th and also that some kind of major storm possibly with a tropical component will form in mid-October and hit some part of the east coast around the 20th to 23rd of October. This is the same energy peak exploited in 2012 by Super-storm Sandy. Many of the same (controversial, to be sure) energy factors occur in that time frame about 8-10 days ahead of the 2012 schedule and actually some of them are better aligned or focused than they were in 2012.

 

My prediction (I shall return to stand trial on the occasion) is that there will be a big weather event with a good chance of tropical involvement (hybrid most likely) in the eastern U.S. Oct 19-24 and it will have a northward-moving and high-latitude blocking character.

 

 

September Active 10th to 20th? Way to go out on a limb.

 

20th to 23rd of October and East Coast is a sort of prediction, but "some kind of major storm with a tropical component" is pretty "spinnable"  - I'm sure any low or front that has some sort of tropical moisture connection can be twisted to a valid prediction.

 

So I presume the vague "energy peak" is the moon stuff, right?

[andyhb]

I have the feeling that September will become very active around the 10th to 20th and also that some kind of major storm possibly with a tropical component will form in mid-October and hit some part of the east coast around the 20th to 23rd of October. This is the same energy peak exploited in 2012 by Super-storm Sandy. Many of the same (controversial, to be sure) energy factors occur in that time frame about 8-10 days ahead of the 2012 schedule and actually some of them are better aligned or focused than they were in 2012.

 

My prediction (I shall return to stand trial on the occasion) is that there will be a big weather event with a good chance of tropical involvement (hybrid most likely) in the eastern U.S. Oct 19-24 and it will have a northward-moving and high-latitude blocking character.

 

I hope for the sake of this board's sanity that you are wrong.

 

And I sincerely hope that you are not talking about J-fields.

[Amped]

September Active 10th to 20th? Way to go out on a limb.

 

20th to 23rd of October and East Coast is a sort of prediction, but "some kind of major storm with a tropical component" is pretty "spinnable"  - I'm sure any low or front that has some sort of tropical moisture connection can be twisted to a valid prediction.

 

So I presume the vague "energy peak" is the moon stuff, right?

 

Usually there is a secondary peak in tropical season after October 15th-November7th in the Caribbean.  Most years it's one hurricane, some years it's more like 2005.

 

But GFS D10+ is already showing an amplified jet capable of producing a powerful Noreaster the first week in September. A Sandy like baroclinic enhanced TC over New England is still possible (Though Very Unlikely) with that type of setup.

[Ed Lizard]

I could be misinterpreting, but I think the Euro ensembles use both perturbed initial conditions *and* physics models, from reading link above.

 

 

Like the SREFs, but way better.

 

Sort of speaking of, the model that can't be named has Caribbean disturbance go North of Honduras, with a 500 mb pattern that suggests any disturbance would continue WNW into the Yucatan and continue WNW towards Tamaulipas.  No reliable support, but a boy can weenie dream.

 

Quick check of GFS ensembles and Euro ensembles, any storms around day 10 that aren't well below 20N entering the Caribbean will fish.  GEFS spreads too high beyond Day 12, a few members have the trough far enough West to be interesting, but most smell fishy.  My poorly educated SWAG, only unexpected 'home brew' (Joe Bastardi term, usually implies non-tropical origin, but means close in development) threatens United States in August.  Speaking of, watching Euro cut off polar low retrograding near Florida in 7 and 8 days into the Gulf, but I watched a similar scenario from 7-10 day Euro, end of July or beginning of August, and nothing happened. Now over 30 years since a HGX CWA major (OKX gets more tropical action last 4 years, by infinity*), last major was non-tropical genesis.  Probably not this year.

 

*Don't need L'Hopital to see 2/0 will not converge...

[HurricaneJosh]

This thread has become a odd cominination of impenetrable technical talk and Old Farmers Almanac.

Maybe an actual system will fix this.

[Ed Lizard]

I thought the J field drove tornado outbreaks.

[bigtenfan]

This thread has become a odd cominination of impenetrable technical talk and Old Farmers Almanac.

Maybe an actual system will fix this.

 

Very well said

[CoastalWx]

Sandy was so out of its league....I wouldn't even feel right saying a Sandy like system. Storms are baroclinically enhanced quite frequently.

[Srain]

Sandy was so out of its league....I wouldn't even feel right saying a Sandy like system. Storms are baroclinically enhanced quite frequently.

Much less predicting it 2 months in advance.

[EasternUSWX]

This thread has become a odd cominination of impenetrable technical talk and Old Farmers Almanac.

Maybe an actual system will fix this.

 

The weather is in hibernation mode. Low tornado year, tropics sleeping, not very hot in the east. A tropical system would be appreciated. 

[EasternUSWX]

Well maybe something forming here in the next week or two.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Sandy was so out of its league....I wouldn't even feel right saying a Sandy like system. Storms are baroclinically enhanced quite frequently.

 

I think we have a better chance of seeing another Sandy in the next 50 years then another 38. 38 was the ultimate aligning of events.

[Sunny and Warm]

I think we have a better chance of seeing another Sandy in the next 50 years then another 38. 38 was the ultimate aligning of events.

I would strongly disagree with that statement.  Sandy required several very anomolous events in close proximity to one another in order to produce what it did.  In fact, the 500mb pattern we saw (let alone the anomolous nature of it) can only occur at the mid latitudes as we get later into the fall.  The 1938 hurricane, while stronger than Sandy, is less anomolous than Sandy with respect to getting certain weather features to align for a potential repeat.   

[Ed Lizard]

Good news is that a little under half the GEFS from 6Z/12Z show an Atlantic TC, fairly good clustering near the Cape Verdes, and 500 mb heights spaghetti not too noisy at 240 hours.  Not so good, most have a trough too near the East Coast for action.  But the TCs are still out there.

 

From decent ensemble clustering day 10 to a complete mess at 300 hours.  Most still showing an East Coast trough, but not all and the trough positions and strengths vary.  Day 15, half the members have TCs, spaghetti is truly random, troughs from the Plains to East Coast, and some members with flat flow.  6Z GEFS has ballpark 15 TCs in 15 days, not sure if some members have more than one.

 

When nothing is imminent, what else can one do but look at the ensembles.  I have my weenie hopes 500 mb low in Eastern Gulf will develop a surface reflection, but no real reason to believe it.  MDR appears to be where it'll be at.

 

0Z and 6Z GFS have a wave leaving Africa that may briefly close off before opening back up, but the wave is approaching 60ºW by 8-9 days, and by virtue of not really developing, may be at low enough latitude to be interesting.

 

 

Trying to be uplifting, and get back to the tropics in a semi-scientific analysis.

 

2 attached images, and a hotlink from Dr V.'s web page showing happiness on the doorstep.

 

.

[CT Rain]

I would strongly disagree with that statement.  Sandy required several very anomolous events in close proximity to one another in order to produce what it did.  In fact, the 500mb pattern we saw (let alone the anomolous nature of it) can only occur at the mid latitudes as we get later into the fall.  The 1938 hurricane, while stronger than Sandy, is less anomolous than Sandy with respect to getting certain weather features to align for a potential repeat.   

 

Both storms were similar in some ways, however. 1938 wound up taking a left hook in northern New England and southern Quebec as it merged with a large cut off over the Apps. 

 

Both Sandy and 1938 exhibited strong fujiwhara with a deep/anomalous cut off to the west. 

 

I would guess the return time on both storms is probably similar. 

[icebreaker5221]

Well maybe something forming here in the next week or two.

 

Superstorm posted this yesterday on the previous page.  But yes, encouraging signs, particularly with respect to the MJO. 

 

 

I would strongly disagree with that statement.  Sandy required several very anomolous events in close proximity to one another in order to produce what it did.  In fact, the 500mb pattern we saw (let alone the anomolous nature of it) can only occur at the mid latitudes as we get later into the fall.  The 1938 hurricane, while stronger than Sandy, is less anomolous than Sandy with respect to getting certain weather features to align for a potential repeat.   

 

Both storms were similar in some ways, however. 1938 wound up taking a left hook in northern New England and southern Quebec as it merged with a large cut off over the Apps. 

 

Both Sandy and 1938 exhibited strong fujiwhara with a deep/anomalous cut off to the west. 

 

I would guess the return time on both storms is probably similar. 

 

I think we have a better chance of seeing another Sandy in the next 50 years then another 38. 38 was the ultimate aligning of events.

 

Not sure you can assign a return period with a sample size of one, but I would agree with CTRain and expect an equivalent storm to either would have roughly equal returns. 

 

There was a study that determined Sandy to be something like a 1 in 700 year event, but that was based upon the landfall location, intensity and trajectory, not the phasing of the mid-latitude jet with a tropical system that took place.  Something similar to Sandy that moves more parallel to the coast rather than perpendicular to the coast is I'm sure more frequent than a 1 in 700 year event. 

 

 

I could be misinterpreting, but I think the Euro ensembles use both perturbed initial conditions *and* physics models, from reading link above.

 

 

The ECMWF ensemble uses 4 different methods to perturb their members:

- Singular vector perturbations, which are optimized for the fastest-growing linear modes through the first 48 h

- An ensemble of data assimilations, which assimilates perturbed observations to better account for observation uncertainty

- A stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEB), which accounts for the uncertainty in sub-gridscale processes

- And lastly, a stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies scheme (SPPT), which accounts for uncertainty in the parameterized processes.  This is probably the one you were talking about, but it's not the same as perturbing the physics.  They're actually only perturbing the tendencies (u, v, T, q, etc) that come out of the physics package without changing the physics itself.  

[Roger Smith]

Regardless of subjective opinions voiced earlier, the fact of the matter is that tropical storm activity is both more frequent and more intense when the Moon is close to its northern declination maximum. My research data show almost twice as many active storms, landfalls and intense hurricanes in the 25% of time between the Moon's northward transit (which in statistical terms is often close to full moon in autumn) and northern declination maximum. Hazel (1954), Audrey (1957), Frederic (1979), Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992), Isobel (2003), Charley (2004) and Katrina, Rita, Wilma in 2005 all made landfalls very close to the northern declination max. Sandy was heading for the NJ coast at full moon three days before a northern declination max last year. This is not meant to be a complete report, I just recalled these facts and checked them today against research notes. Even the 1823 storm was close to this northern declination max (it occurred on Aug 31, 1823 with a new moon on Sept 4).

 

Take note that August northern max events will fall generally 4-5 days before new moon then by September about halfway from full to new moon, by mid-October about 5-6 days after full moon, by late October 3-4 days after full moon. Camille (1969) does not follow the pattern above as it formed closer to an August new moon and had its most active phase a few days before the southern declination maximum. I don't claim that this research perspective covers all cases, just that it shows a statistically significant peak.

 

 I've noted in my research that there's also a weak secondary effect in the seven days leading up to the southern declination max and I'm looking for some data sets to examine the situation for other theatres in both northern and southern hemisphere to see whether the same processes can be observed there. Now, to balance this, it needs to be said that the data also support other possible external energy sources unrelated to the Moon and the scattering of all data indicates that the Moon's declination cannot be the only driver of the cycle, so please be clear on what I actually believe here, which is that lunar declination is an important but not exclusive source of energy for storm formation. The same can be said for land-based deep cyclonic storms in winter and spring. My working hypothesis is that storm formation in the deep tropics is likely unrelated to lunar energy cycles but storm activity in the transitional stages from NW or W moving to N or NE moving intense phase in the lower mid-latitudes is more governed by lunar energy and begins to converge on a model of similar cause and effect with ordinary lows, hence the growing chance of hybrid activity in the range of 30-40 deg latitude where the two separate types of storm systems begin to interact.

 

My comments about October 20-23 factor in that climatology then favours a high chance of early hybridization and that by mid-October the land-based cyclonic storms are more likely to be forming in closer proximity to any tropical systems that may pass 35 N. Comments about this forecast being spinnable are unfair as there is no comment available to support the charge that I am planning to "spin" any sort of result. Clearly I am talking about a window of opportunity for an intense storm and if there's something more pedestrian in the same general region I will say in advance that my minimum criteria for validation of this potential would be wind gusts in excess of 80 mph and a central pressure below 950 mb, so that will create plenty of spin anyway.

 

As to my forecast of mid-September being a very safe bet, probably true. I wasn't trying to pull a fast one there, just saying that I am expecting this quiet interval to last a while longer and then fade out in mid-September. I don't imagine anyone would be too surprised by this although an even safer bet would be to say plenty of action by first ten days of September and that I'm not too sure would verify but it's not the main focus of my research-driven comments.