AutoPenalti Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Oh goody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Oh goody... beggars can't be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Oh goody... Wishcast, which could happen, 97L slowplays development (it is broad, and, IMHO, almost in a monsoon trough like feature), gets past 70W. Nothing developing before that avoids the trough and avoids getting pulled North. Starts developing past there, as trough has pushed offshore and heights rise over the East Coast, then gets pulled up into Florida, maybe sort of like Charley, by a disturbance both the GFS and Euro show riding down the ridge in 6 days. Or, the Euro is actually very likeable, except it doesn't start developing 97L once past 70W. Note below Euro map with childish scrawls on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Convection is blossoming over 97L tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Convection is blossoming over 97L tonight... According to NHC, nothing to see here. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM AIRCRAFT SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE WAVE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 Hot off the press from the usually downplaying 57 dude: "Quite a strong circulation evident on the MIMIC-TPW loop. Climatologically, such a strong wave might h ave a 30-40% chance of development in the Caribbean in 3-4 days. But I think development chances are higher than that. Probably after it passes west of the DR and is in the vicinity of PR. Could be a storm threatening the Gulf in 5 days." He does have a typo. Hawt. Thx for sharing. beggars can't be choosers Bingo. I'll take even this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Mid-level relative humidity values are forecast to increase over the following days as Invest 97L tracks westward. Haven't seen that too much this season, though it makes sense in this case. 700-500 MB RH 52 55 56 55 55 58 60 61 61 63 61 63 63 Wind shear should continue to lower: SHEAR (KT) 14 11 5 5 11 2 8 2 7 6 5 7 12 SSTs are a go: SST © 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 Vertical instability is average: TH_E DEV © 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 12 12 13 Liking the chances for this one if it doesn't develop quickly and get pulled north over the Greater Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Please, just once let the SHIPS/LGEM be right... 00z SHIPS enviorement would favor something pretty hawt with the BAMM track. * ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972013 09/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 42 51 57 63 69 74 77 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 34 42 51 57 63 69 74 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 36 43 53 64 77 88 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 00z early track guidance slides further west in general. May miss Hispanola to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 00z early track guidance slides further west in general. May miss Hispanola to the south... Good, would hate to have one of the few chances we may have this season get wasted on Shredderola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Good, would hate to have one of the few chances we may have this season get wasted on Shredderola. And I hear there's poor people there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 GFS loses it pretty darn quickly, and I'd guess the 0Z run had plenty of data. GFS seems more enthusiastic about the wave near 45W, makes a run at developing it, but doesn't quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 If 97L doesn't develop into a hurricane, it looks like a decent chance to set the record to have the latest first hurricane in the Atlantic on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 If 97L doesn't develop into a hurricane, it looks like a decent chance to set the record to have the latest first hurricane in the Atlantic on record. Euro not excited about it either. I'd like the path to the Bahamas, if it developed. Convection has been maintaining, and it even looks like it is developing outflow to the South, pushing some cirrus Westward, but with neither the GFS or Euro developing it, there must be something missing. On the positive side, it takes the GFDL an entire 48 hours to lose it. And outer grid tracks a disturbance to Cuba. FIM-9 looks a bit like the GFS, with the trailing wave eventually starting to interact with 97L, and the trailing wave looking better than 97L as it gets turned away to the Northwest, but not quite developing through a week.. EDIT TO ADD Looking at PSU Euro 4 panel, the weak system in the Bahamas is also the wave behind 97L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 If 97L doesn't develop into a hurricane, it looks like a decent chance to set the record to have the latest first hurricane in the Atlantic on record. You mean for the modern/recon/satellite era-- i.e., from the mid-20 century. The best-track record is actually 08 Oct, in 1905. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 You mean for the modern/recon/satellite era-- i.e., from the mid-20 century. The best-track record is actually 08 Oct, in 1905. That may be true, but I discount a lot of numerical records from that era, like latest hurricane to form. It may be true that one didn't form until Oct 8th, but we don't know for certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 That may be true, but I discount a lot of numerical records from that era, like latest hurricane to form. It may be true that one didn't form until Oct 8th, but we don't know for certain. Of course not, which is why I qualified it by saying it was pre-modern. It is understood by all of us that the pre-modern record is imperfect. But given that it exists, and that we refer to it and use this for statistical analysis, it is not correct to say that 11 Sep is the latest a season's first hurricane has ever formed in the NATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Globals are still awfully meh with that wave. Kind of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 Globals are still awfully meh with that wave. Kind of a red flag. We just can't win this year. I forgot what it's like to see a NATL tropical cyclone just pop up and bomb out. Everything is such a struggle these days-- not just this year but the last few. Even the rare moments of hawtness seem to happen suddenly and are very short-lived and localized-- like Karl 2010's short-lived bomb-out in the Bay of Campeche or Ernie 2012's very short-lived pre-Yucatan intensification or Sandy 2012's very short-lived pre-Cuba intensification. Even these cool moments are quick and come after long periods of struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Of course not, which is why I qualified it by saying it was pre-modern. It is understood by all of us that the pre-modern record is imperfect. But given that it exists, and that we refer to it and use this for statistical analysis, it is not correct to say that 11 Sep is the latest a season's first hurricane has ever formed in the NATL. People 100 years from now will be lucky enough to have 150 years of satellite records and 7 day models that are as accurate as 24 hour ones. It both a bummer and exciting that we are so close to the beginning of understanding tropical storms. I like the mystery still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 We just can't win this year. I forgot what it's like to see a NATL tropical cyclone just pop up and bomb out. Everything is such a struggle these days-- not just this year but the last few. Even the rare moments of hawtness seem to happen suddenly and are very short-lived and localized-- like Karl 2010's short-lived bomb-out in the Bay of Campeche or Ernie 2012's very short-lived pre-Yucatan intensification or Sandy 2012's very short-lived pre-Cuba intensification. Even these cool moments are quick and come after long periods of struggle. Well maybe it gets its act together, but there is a little SW shear and some sort of conv trough with shwrs/tstms ahead of it. Not really what I would like to see, but maybe it moves away and it organizes down the road. Not really looking "hawt" right now. The season is just entering climo peak. My gut says it may be a late one so maybe homebrew season gets to be interesting October and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 you should start a September thread for good luck. August was a real Debbie Downer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 Well maybe it gets its act together, but there is a little SW shear and some sort of conv trough with shwrs/tstms ahead of it. Not really what I would like to see, but maybe it moves away and it organizes down the road. Not really looking "hawt" right now. Ha ha ha, definitely nawt hawt. Lolz. The season is just entering climo peak. My gut says it may be a late one so maybe homebrew season gets to be interesting October and beyond. Yep-- that's what I'm counting on-- some deep-tropical, W-basin, late-season hatwness. I'm totally ignoring Africa now-- do not give a crap what comes out of there. Hoping for an African wave to make it across and become hawt this year is like watching a kitten trying to cross a ten-lane highway-- just painful. Any Cape Verde cyclone that's going to make it across and have a significant impact on North America needs to form by around 15 Sep-- then it's basically game over-- and the long-range models are already showing that timeframe with basically nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 you should start a September thread for good luck. August was a real Debbie Downer... That's actually a really good idea-- to just kinda clear the air. I'll do it when a moderator is online to lock this one, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Start a new one, Josh. Just locked this bad karma thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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