Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Noice!! Thank you! Iris was the hawtest, then Charley, in my opinion. How did you get the older pics in the "modern" IR style? I haven't seen pics of older storms in this style. Phil's website. It's a dream come true. IR loops of May-Nov of every year from 1980-2009 in both basins. See Allen. See Gilbert. See Spot Run. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 What are you talking about? I thought Erin was clearing the way for all teh stormz? She really bit the bullet for everyone!.. it's just too bad there is an AK-47 of fresh saharan dust firing off behind her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 If we hold out until September 1st or later for our first hurricane, then it would put us in a small group of years since the beginning of the satellite era. The only years that I have been able to find since the early 60's with a September first hurricane were 2002, 2001, 1988, 1984, and 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Noice!! Thank you! Iris was the hawtest, then Charley, in my opinion. How did you get the older pics in the "modern" IR style? I haven't seen pics of older storms in this style. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/gridsat.html The IR satellite images were taken from my page which uses gridded satellite data to make these "modern" looking IR images via NCL. The archive goes back from 1980-2009 but as I mentioned earlier, I am working on improving it and adding a couple of other cool features! If you guys have any suggestions let me know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/gridsat.html The IR satellite images were taken from my page which uses gridded satellite data to make these "modern" looking IR images via NCL. The archive goes back from 1980-2009 but as I mentioned earlier, I am working on improving it and adding a couple of other cool features! If you guys have any suggestions let me know! Yeah, can you make a really badass Hurricane Fernand? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 How much do the Ethiopian Highlands, such as Ras Dashan, play a role in the easterly jet? Well the higher terrain can act as a trigger for convection in the early afternoon where surface heating is elevated. The African Easterly Jet (unlikely the subtropical or polar jet) is typically strongest in the middle portion of the atmosphere, which makes it particularly susceptible to vorticity perturbations produced from MCS or MCV like disturbances that often develop from this higher terrain. do any of the models take SAL outbreaks into account, or is it more that the models simulate SAL via lower humidity areas? Some models are able to simulate aerosols and other chemical compositions in the atmosphere, but to my knowledge most global models (at least the operational guidance) doesn't really have robust schemes when handling dust. One negative impact due to this is that oftentimes the model guidance will under forecast mid-level ridging, which could have implications on how fast individual tropical waves move across the east Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Low action weeniesque blob watching. Very low latitude area of convection, some hint of a little turning in loops, (not low level, apparently) dry air all around it but WV shows moisture in immediate vicinity of blob around 33ºW. Globals I checked don't seem to think much of it. Under 20 to 30 knots Easterly shear per CIMSS Africa/East Atlantic analysis but heading towards more favorable shear, good UL divergence/LL convergence. Besides shear, while in decent TPW per CIMSS, no low level vorticity to speak of, generally embedded in the ITCZ and at low latitude (between 5 and 10º). And no model love. But excellent low level convergence, convectively active, shear to improve, its worth watching while the Atlantic is boring. The low latitude thing could be good if it does try to develop, assuming it clears Guyana and Venezuela. Speaking of low latitude, MIMIC TPW shows a wave entering the Caribbean and partly inland over Venezuela. GFS is going to run it into Nicaragua/Honduras in 5-6 days, but it has decent PW, and what looks like favorable shear. GFS might be suggesting it is in the EastPac in 8 days and ready to develop there, but if it gains enough latitude to clear land, this time of year, I'd think it'd at least have a shot. Many 12Z and 6Z GEFS show a 1008 mb or stronger low developing in 5 days before Nicaragua, and crossing into the East Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 There's a tiny area of low pressure about 150mi west of Key west associated to the Nern end of a TW that extends into the NW caribbean. Upper level conditions are ok, but the low looks very fragile and tiny and it just began to puff out some convection. The GFS moves it WNW to NW and the Euro basically W...none develops it into a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/gridsat.html The IR satellite images were taken from my page which uses gridded satellite data to make these "modern" looking IR images via NCL. The archive goes back from 1980-2009 but as I mentioned earlier, I am working on improving it and adding a couple of other cool features! If you guys have any suggestions let me know! Awesome tool! On behalf of winter weenies I'd request that Dec-April are included as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Awesome tool! On behalf of winter weenies I'd request that Dec-April are included as well. Don't worry... its in the works! Here's a little something to whet your appetite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 There's a tiny area of low pressure about 150mi west of Key west associated to the Nern end of a TW that extends into the NW caribbean. Upper level conditions are ok, but the low looks very fragile and tiny and it just began to puff out some convection. The GFS moves it WNW to NW and the Euro basically W...none develops it into a TC. More than a few puffs of convection now. Interesting...conditions do not look too bad ahead of it. As you say, small system, but something amusing to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 More than a few puffs of convection now. Interesting...conditions do not look too bad ahead of it. As you say, small system, but something amusing to keep an eye on... NAM is the only model that seems to see it on initialization, and even the NAM can only get a weak surface low (how weak, isobar not closed) with showers approaching Texas in 3 1/2 days. Favorable shear, in good moisture, pretty good divergence/convergence upstairs/downstairs, but CIMSS 850 mb vorticity is fairly meager, and it only gets more meager with height. But if it can supply surprise late week rains, I'll be rooting for it. OK, this is fantasy range, but it has had support from several previous GEFS runs (some of which had a closed 1004 mb low for this system while still over land), and despite being an obviously weenie thing to post, I have to say I like the general 500 mb pattern and possible red meat Florida action ballpark September 11th. EDIT TO ADD Blob West of EYW may not be in a super hurry to develop, throwing outflow boundaries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Another area to watch is the TW N of Venezuela (well S of PR). Ed mentioned it a few posts above. Conditions are good in the E and C Carib, and if it can gain enough latitude and make it to the NW Caribbean, something may brew. GFS just crashes it into CA and crosses it over into the EPac. The Euro gains a bit more latitude and makes it a Honduras coast hugger and then into the deep S BoC...making little out of it.The CMC develops it into what would be a named system in the BoC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Another area to watch is the TW N of Venezuela (well S of PR). Ed mentioned it a few posts above. Conditions are good in the E and C Carib, and if it can gain enough latitude and make it to the NW Caribbean, something may brew. GFS just crashes it into CA and crosses it over into the EPac. The Euro gains a bit more latitude and makes it a Honduras coast hugger and then into the deep S BoC...making little out of it.The CMC develops it into what would be a named system in the BoC That sounds like the synopsis for a horror film. No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 NAM is the only model that seems to see it on initialization, and even the NAM can only get a weak surface low (how weak, isobar not closed) with showers approaching Texas in 3 1/2 days. Favorable shear, in good moisture, pretty good divergence/convergence upstairs/downstairs, but CIMSS 850 mb vorticity is fairly meager, and it only gets more meager with height. But if it can supply surprise late week rains, I'll be rooting for it. OK, this is fantasy range, but it has had support from several previous GEFS runs (some of which had a closed 1004 mb low for this system while still over land), and despite being an obviously weenie thing to post, I have to say I like the general 500 mb pattern and possible red meat Florida action ballpark September 11th. EDIT TO ADD Blob West of EYW may not be in a super hurry to develop, throwing outflow boundaries now. Yes, definite OBs - not a plus, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Isabel and Andrew both look so sickly perfect in those images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Isabel and Andrew both look so sickly perfect in those images.The first part of Andrew's life was a struggle if I remember correctly. It didn't form until late August and was obviously the first named system that year. Something to keep in mind as some people begin to freak out about not having any canes yet this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2013 Share Posted August 19, 2013 Yes, definite OBs - not a plus, LOL. The EYW morning sounding didn't look bad, but it looks like it had dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 I wouldn't be fooled. Typically, the last 10 days of August are the beginnings of the active period. In 2010, we had 6 named storms, 4 hurricanes, all of them major hurricanes (three of them Cat 4s) all between August 24th and September 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 I put together the U.S. highlights for the years when the first Atlantic hurricane of the season arrived in September during the satellite era. 2002 Oct LA, 1 1 963 80 Lili 2001 SEP FL TS Gabrielle 1988 Sep LA, 1 1 984 70 Florence 1984 Sep * NC, 3 3 949 100 Diana 1967 Sep TX, S3 3 950 ----- Beulah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Cool site, Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 I put together the U.S. highlights for the years when the first Atlantic hurricane of the season arrived in September during the satellite era. 2002 Oct LA, 1 1 963 80 Lili 2001 SEP FL TS Gabrielle 1988 Sep LA, 1 1 984 70 Florence 1984 Sep * NC, 3 3 949 100 Diana 1967 Sep TX, S3 3 950 ----- Beulah So let's assume those seasons were exact replicas with 2013.... 1967 - Hurricane Humberto Nears landfall in TX as a Cat 5 1984 - Hurricane Ingrid Hits NC as a Cat 2 after approaching as a rare NC Cat 4 1988 - Hurricane Jerry Hits Jamaica as a Cat 3, hits Cancun as a Cat 5, record breaking storm Hurricane Melissa Hits Nicaragua as high-end Cat 4 2001 - Hurricane Jerry Devastates Belize as a high-end Cat 4 Hurricane Nestor Hits Cuba in November with 135 mph winds, 20+ ft surge 2002 - Hurricane Karen Hits Yucatan as a major hurricane Now while that may not be significant for the CONUS, still very intense, deadly and significant storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 The 1989 barely Cat 1 Jerry is what people use to claim that Texas hurricane season doesn't end at the Equinox. Because nobody on the forums is old enough to remember the 1949 early October major which hit Freeport. Nothing to do with anything, except I saw 1988 and Jerry and said 'whoa, wrong year'. I think I was in Dallas in 1989 to see Pete Gardere hitting the Cash twins to begin a 4 year winning streak against the Sooners. No clue there was a TC in Texas. Still watching the blob around 35ºW Turning in low clouds is North of the blob, in lower moisture per MIMIC TPW. But the blob and the lower cloud swirl are travelling together. The vorticity seems to be closer to the convection today. Eastern Caribbean wave looks to be centered right on the South American coast per TPW, but doesn't look all that impressive on satellite. Maybe it is a shade to early for the Western Caribbean. (See below) Yesterday's Gulf blowup, I figured it'd die when I saw outflow boundaries. Outflow boundaries again today in the Gulf. I'd guess dry air, but MIMIC TPW doesn't look bad and morning Key West sounding over 2.2 inches. I should ignore the Gulf, except the model that can't be named keeps developing a strong wave or possibly even a depression from it, it has a hint of 700 mb and 500 mb vorticity, and one can't ask for better shear The forbidden model in 2008 did spot Edouard before the GFS. The global model of the Great White North develops a weak wave from the weak 500 mb system over the Yucatan Channel as well. A wave from the Crazy Uncle isn't a ringing endorsement, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 On a side note, how many times do we need to see a Major Hurricane named Jerry strike Central America before the name is retired lol? I guess a cat 5 into Cancun isnt good enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 On a side note, how many times do we need to see a Major Hurricane named Jerry strike Central America before the name is retired lol? I guess a cat 5 into Cancun isnt good enough? The 1988 Jerry above is Gilbert. Jerry is an odd year storm. Wracking my brains for a big Central American Jerry I'm forgetting because I am US-centric. Off to Wiki... OK, best I can tell, Jerry is always a lame storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Yesterday's Gulf blowup, I figured it'd die when I saw outflow boundaries. Outflow boundaries again today in the Gulf. I'd guess dry air, but MIMIC TPW doesn't look bad and morning Key West sounding over 2.2 inches. I should ignore the Gulf, except the model that can't be named keeps developing a strong wave or possibly even a depression from it, it has a hint of 700 mb and 500 mb vorticity, and one can't ask for better shear The forbidden model in 2008 did spot Edouard before the GFS. The global model of the Great White North develops a weak wave from the weak 500 mb system over the Yucatan Channel as well. A wave from the Crazy Uncle isn't a ringing endorsement, I know. I know the circulation is as far south as the Keys, but the feed of dry air wrapping into it and hindering development originates a little further north. Check the Tampa sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 I know the circulation is as far south as the Keys, but the feed of dry air wrapping into it and hindering development originates a little further north. Check the Tampa sounding. Oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 The 1989 barely Cat 1 Jerry is what people use to claim that Texas hurricane season doesn't end at the Equinox. Jerry 1989 was a respectful late season storm for the Upper Texas Coast, although it was a micro cane. Those in Galveston, West Galveston Bay on up into Baytown certainly will not forget that unusual late season storm that quickly developed on a Sunday and moved inland. The Fred Hartman Bridge was under construction to replace the old Baytown Tunnel. Jerry brought down the high voltage electrical supply lines that stretched across the Houston Ship Channel at that time from the old HL &P Power plant in Baytown and serviced Barbours Cut. I will have fond memories of that storm as I was on duty as a firefighter and experienced the 'eye'. That totally clear inner eye wall and the weak tornadoes imbedded within the eye wall as it passed will forever be etched in my mind. Areas W of Galveston Bay hardly knew a storm was passing, but those locations E certainly did feel the effects of Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2013 Share Posted August 20, 2013 Two days before Jerry, it was in the 90s, warm for Dallas in mid-October. Which suggests ridging in the state. I've seen people post synoptic maps for past events before, can anyone dial up October 14-16th, 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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