OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think this 18z GFS run should be good. More neutrally tilted trough at hr72, and stronger leading vort max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS: Looks like it's coming in nicely from the west, but as the storm transfers to the secondary, lots of moisture is robbed from SNE -- resulting in a light event (couple inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS continues SWFE/Miller A hybrid, and in this scenario, timing of transfer to secondary will need to be worked out... not concerned about qpf depictions now, plenty of time for this to be delineated. The H5 low from the 27-28th storm will be critical in keeping the trough broad/neutral and defining the track. We may not have the best handle on this until after 27-28th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS continues SWFE/Miller A hybrid, and in this scenario, timing of transfer to secondary will need to be worked out... not concerned about qpf depictions now, plenty of time for this the be delineated. The H5 low from the 27-28th storm will be critical in keeping the same trough broadneutral and defining the track. We may not have the best handle on this until after 27-28th storm. we do not have a handle on tomorrow night yet either lol. Yeah could be a contendah or a poser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Trouble is the heights over the southeast ... flow is not compressible, so the storm can't amplify and dig into the southeast ...ends up being a fast-moving flat-ish wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This one might not work out, but the 192 hour dgex is dialing up a KU for us. Seriously though, the pattern looks to be stormy well into early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z gfs ens go over BM again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro mean for those who asked. Look wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think hour 96 would be more informative. Like.how close to the benchmark does it get before it heads out at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think hour 96 would be more informative. Like.how close to the benchmark does it get before it heads out at 120 Looks similar to op I think. Probably brushes SE New England with accumulating snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z GFS Indiv Ensm Members 102h-120h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Eastern areas have the best shot on this one i think, I just don't see this one amplifying enough to get it more west then the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 maybe we could pull off a refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 maybe we could pull off a refresher. Eyes open. A couple or three inches is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00z GFS doesn't look as good through 78h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00z GFS doesn't look as good through 78h Maybe 1-3" for SE Mass on this run. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Maybe 1-3" for SE Mass on this run. Meh 4 days+ and that'd still be one of the biggest synoptic snows since 2010 down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 There is still potential but the flow still sort of argues for lack of deep amplification and faster flow. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 4 days+ and that'd still be one of the biggest synoptic snows since 2010 down here. Gotta say though, if tomorrow just rains and this one misses --- a lot of CP folks will be needing to take a break from the board for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 4 days+ and that'd still be one of the biggest synoptic snows since 2010 down here. I wasn't even here for the Jan 21st storm last year..and yeah still something to watch 4.5 days out. We need phasing with the northern stream to bring this back and slow it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gotta say though, if tomorrow just rains and this one misses --- a lot of CP folks will be needing to take a break from the board for a while. Would be an exclamation point on 2012. 337 or so days since 1" in Boston... what's another few to get us to 2013. Would be amazed to watch 3 footballs get pulled away in less than a week. Comparing 12z GFS 12/25 and 12z Euro 12/24 (much bigger SNE hit) vs. tonight's 0z GFS 12/26 (whiffer), I'm trying to figure out why we're losing the sharper trough and better amplification on this run. The better runs have a sharper ridge over the Rockies and that seems to be affected by differences in handling of the west coast H5 low. And the ULL from tomorrow's storm is keeping the east coast trough broad with more progressive flow so we get a flatter wave out to sea. In any case, the way models have fared this year outside of 24hrs, it's possible we might get better clues watching bird patterns or reading entrails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GFS ens are less amplified than previous runs..just outside BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GFS ens are less amplified than previous runs..just outside BM. Yeah, meh. Fits the pattern for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z euro blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12/30 is sliding off the table but there's still time. OT but the pattern is becoming less exciting as we move in closer and in fact the Pacific jet appears cranking on the ensembles in the long range. January may squeeze out a marginally chilly week and then who knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah signal is fading kind of quickly. Will give it another run but we may need to get the paddles out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z euro wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z euro wide right Shanked big time. Progressive pattern with a reawakening Pacific jet. We may be in trouble but if we whiff this week and next we can at least start trotting out the futility comparisons.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Shanked big time. Progressive pattern with a reawakening Pacific jet. We may be in trouble but if we whiff this week and next we can at least start trotting out the futility comparisons.... I will likely have < 1.5" before 2012 is finished. I don't see any reason to think I will easily eclipse last year's paltry total of 15.7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I will likely have < 1.5" before 2012 is finished. I don't see any reason to think I will easily eclipse last year's paltry total of 15.7". Your last year's total is 60% more than mine....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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